ORH_wxman

Euro is kind of like GGEM....really close but the good stuff doesn't get in here.

I'm expecting nothing until the models are in good agreement on something inside of 96 hours...and that agreement might take until <48 hours in a system like this. It does have the "feel" of a close miss....however, I'll add the caveat that the GFS being the furthest SE feels pretty normal for a pure east coast cyclogenesis event. I'd prob not scoff at the Euro as much in a setup like this as some other type of system or larger scale pattern.

Yeah I agree. Conversely, a record that may have happened if temperature sensor was accurate might not be recorded with a flawed temperature sensor. (i.e., if BOS was still running 2-3F warm, they wouldn't have recorded their coldest temp since 1957 even though it actually was the coldest since 1957 in reality)

Ukie is a decent hit for SNE...esp interior zones central/eastern areas. It has that nice advection of colder air at 925/850 from the northeast that the GGME had, but unlike the GGEM, it got the heavier precip into SNE.

GGEM was a close call...it dragged down some colder air too, but we just couldn't quite get the steady precip in here. If that was like 50 miles NW, you prob get a nice slug of heavy wet snow

Yeah I'm not worried about bad data for things like temp trends on the entire country or even regions....but you start getting incorrect data on places like BOS and ORH, that is not good. You could corrupt state-level data with stations like that in small states like MA. Data is really only useful if it's accurate.

Yep...all the Tblizz's of the world will be dutifully clicking on the 12z runs regardless of what they say about it having no chance. They like preaching to the choir though....as if 90+% of the posters here don't already know it's a long shot.

I think 06z EPS looked even a little better. Almost half get advisory snows into SNE with many getting more than that.

Yeah...I stated this yesterday....anytime you have a system completely cutoff from the polar jet, you are going to have temp issues. I don't care what month it is. These have happened in January too....they are just more common in spring than winter. I did say the one redeeming factor on this one is there is a bit of a high that builds in to our north which could aid in feeding in some lower DP air, which can help in a marginal airmass....you turn what might have been a 0-1C rain storm with mangled noodles into a -0.5C blue cottonball system. I'm still pretty skeptical on this one though....doesn't seem we get quite enough dynamics on most of these runs....even a tiniest amount of PJ injection would go a long way...like you said, maybe we can find that tiny sliver in the next couple days as more of this stuff is sampled.

Sheet of ice out there this morning. Wasn’t expecting that.

Absolutely ripping sleet here

Cutoff totally separated from the polar jet. Always tough to get enough cold in those. High is in a decent spot though so there’s a chance it could trend just a smidge colder. We’ve seen that a decent amount on progs…when you have a good high feeding lower DP air down into the system, even a rotted airmass can cool enough.

20 year anniversary today of a different event. Big positive bust. Can’t believe it was 20 years ago.

Fwiw, here is the BOS MADIS graph back to mid 2018 when the drift warmer started…you can see it persisted for well over a year before the correction…and then the initial cold bias after replacement. It looks like the BOS error got almost to 3F before they replaced it.

Yeah good illustration of the differences. Look at the ridge axis on EPS…it’s in the gulf of Alaska versus the Aleutians on GEFS. About a 600-800 mile difference and it matters. EPS has a hint of an Aleutian low forming way on the left side of that image whereas none in site on GEFS.

EPS still has the potential heat burst before that…but beyond 2/20, EPS looks to go for a much colder CONUS look…we’d still get some mild wx at times through 2/23ish, but then it looks a lot colder after that. We’ll see. I don’t trust any LR guidance at the moment for good reason…but that look is starting to become somewhat persistent on the Euro products. GEFS still not buying it.

Nice model war in clown range. EPS way colder than GEFS.

So the PWM one was also not legit…it was running about 2F warmer than it should? Did it get fixed? Or was it some local siting fluke? The BOS one was clearly not legit but it will look legit to anyone who casually glances at the data without any other context. That’s the unfortunate part. But only sickos like us who scrutinize the data will know the truth. I remember the month was warm…but it was absolutely not that close to being record warmth. Prob more like between top 10-20 type month based on surrounding sites.

That is bordering on insane to me…at least from a climate accuracy perspective. I know there are limited resources but it seems like there is WAY too much deference to ASOS than the empirical evidence would support. A couple years back in summer of 2020 I think it was, BOS had a record warm month (think it was July) when the other 4 major BOX climate sites weren’t even sniffing top 15….the record still stands today despite everyone with any QC experience knowing it’s a completely bogus “record”…you prob remember all the asterisk jokes during that year with BOS temps. It lasted a long time too…maybe even a year or more. One of the events months later in winter they were moderate or heavy snow with a 34 temp while everyone surrounding them was 32 and it became comical. I think NWS BOX finally got the sensor changed despite it “passing” multiple IT calibration checks (this part is coming back to me now as a result of this discussion). Not sure who they finally convinced it was wrong, but it obviously was. The funny part was when they replaced it, the new one had a cold bias of about 1F but I think it finally went away after a few months. Not sure if they changed the sensor a second time or if the error disappeared on its own for some other reason.

Early august heat wave was pretty legit. Lots of upper 90s in that one. But I agree in the larger scale of recent summers. The humidity I think caps the high temp potential…we want those EML type heat bursts on WNW flow in order to rip a 102F or 103F in the 128-495 belt but we just rarely get them in recent years. Instead we get plenty of 94/72 type Bahamas blue garbage.

2 degrees seems like a ridiculously broad threshold. You can literally have a sensor running 2F warm or cold and nothing gets done but it utterly annihilates the accuracy of the climate record.

GFS still not even throwing us a 70F bone this winter like the euro is. You just know the GFS is going to win that one.

Even just the sfc plot screams “in-situ” CAD…look at how dead the sfc winds are over New England versus out in western NY and PA…not what you want to see for a well-mixed atmosphere

Well for places like BOS it actually was the coldest in over 65 years. Basically non-radiators haven’t seen colder since then. There were probably some ties though (such as ACK…likely ORH tied the 2016 outbreak too if their ASOS sensor was correct)

Eh dont bother…he’s not going to engage fully. Everyone else knew what you were saying…rats come in different flavors and this one is a really weird one. We’ve had some decent pattern windows and we’ve whiffed on all of them. It’s different than a rat like 2001-2002 or 2011-2012 where we went almost wire to wire with a fat pig over Alaska and very little hope.