ORH_wxman

Yes, it shows what the EPS shows through about Feb 25ish and then it goes gangbusters with the arctic blocking and sends low heights for us all the way through the equinox. No doubt, we'd prob have a really active/stormy March is they verified....but yeah, taken with a grain of salt for now.

Check the weeklies.....lol I ain't buying cold/snow until it's close though.

6 years ago today was a good one in 2017

Yeah the only place I feel like has a decent shot at futility is BDR....anyone else really just needs an advisory event (or less in the case of BOS) to ruin any futility chances. Given that there's some evidence we go into a bit more of normal look for late Feb and perhaps favorable look beyond that, I don't have a reason to buy the futility futures right now.

That was a frustrating event....so close to a monster hit....the system just couldn't quite get it's act together for the final bump north to get the real goods in here. I would've had a 50 inch month if it had.

2009....summer was a disaster though.

Ashland coop right near me had over 46" and change. What's weird is Ashburnham and other sites north of ORH had more too....wonder if they had a couple bad measurements....or they just happened to get unlucky.

Man, GGEM is really close....gets really heavy banding into Cape and far S shore. It's cold enough at 925 and 850 for snow, so if that backed in a little further, then we'd be talking a legit event. I still think the odds are pretty low though. Seems like that kicker shortwave coming through the lakes will inhibit this from coming much further north.

Ray's March 1956 incoming....

Excellent contribution to the thread

Dirty looking warm sector though....hopefully it's right as I'd take that over 49-54F and showers lots of clouds. But I'm guessing it ends up closer to the latter.

Warm sector window has gotten pretty short on that....I was hoping to like 36-48 of torchy dry weather, but now it's kind of a FROPA with showers....it still might spike to 60+ if we can briefly get some sun, but it's a fundamentally different look than the Euro a few days ago. GGEM still has a nice prolonged 2 day warm spell....maybe we can trend back to that.

Yeah I think this one is likely a close miss (as we've been surmising for days) but you can't ignore that the ensembles have maybe like 1 out of 3 members with advisory type snows into SNE. So while it's likely nothing, can't completely write it off.

I mean, it wasn’t the canonical Alberta clipper but it was pretty similar. It came in a little south of the typical clipper but similar result because the block forced it south instead of swinging up into S Canada.

Dec 11th this winter? Might be the biggest event of the season for a chunk of CT.

Pre-1950 is kind of a wasteland for good snowstorm impacts…also doesn’t help that the 2-3 decades leading up to it were pretty horrible for snow. How does Dec 19, 1945 rank in CT? I know it was a big storm for HFD but wasn’t sure about statewide impact. Usually a big dog in HFD is good for most of the state though.

Need hood western ridging for clippers and we haven’t had much of that in the past few winters. The last winter that seemed to have a decent number was ‘18-19. We had several in a row in Feb and I think Jan had one too.

Feb ‘83 was pretty huge in CT too.

Your area has be near the top for 18+ drought. Maybe just west of you? Has Danbury had an 18+ event since Jan 2011? Not sure if they got 18” in the Mar 7-8, 2018 storm.

Yeah Feb 2013 was easily the biggest impact region-wide this century…maybe since 1978 but you could make a case for Mar ‘93 though. Dec ‘03 was also really wide impact for snow but it didn’t have nearly the wind that Feb ‘13 or Mar ‘93 had.

The 1955 floods changed the way they had flood controls and drainage in ORH. There was something like 10 feet of water in downtown ORH during that. We will never see it again due to the changes they made. So yeah…tragic event did produce safety measures that undoubtedly has saved a lot of lives.

I've never understood the "morality' arguments in rooting or not rooting for certain types of weather. I think looking at it through a lens of only that storm can be too myopic. I can very easily root for a blizzard but hope people are not hurt or injured during it. I even proactively try and warn as many people as possible if it looks like dangerous weather is coming. In the end, yes, extreme weather does injure/kill people....but at the same time, we learn from extreme weather events both in terms of forecasting ability and preparation which actually saves lives in the future. So on that front, extreme weather events can be "good"....we're learning and saving lives in the future when the next blizzard or ice storm or hurricane hits. If we didn't learn from previous weather disasters, it's hard to estimate how many more people would have died in events like Katrina in 2005 or the blizzard in February 2013, or even the Buffalo blizzard this year....all those events injured and killed people to varying levels of magnitude, but they would have been way worse without the experience and learning from previous events.

Yeah if you look at 925-850, you can see that if the meat of the CCB gets in here, I think you'd be parachuting except maybe on the Cape and immediate south coast? Even there might get something if the lift was excellent.

Yep....if every single break goes in the "Bad" direction, we could have a 5-10 inch winter over interior SNE....likewise, if we hadn't gotten screwed in March 2015 or that marginal rainstorm on a nor' easter in Dec '14 or even on a couple events during the good pattern like 1/31/15, we could have had 170 inches, lol. But there's a reason we don't get 170 inches ever or 7 inches. Having every coinflip go against you the entire winter is really hard. You are bound to have even a couple coinflips go your way even when you're unlucky when there are a dozen of them.

Euro completely cancelled the spring warmup potential in that Feb 17th range....instead it has overrunning threat with high pressure pressing down into our area.