ORH_wxman

It’s basically become this from a significant group of posters: 1. stop listening to Mets discuss any pattern shown on models. If they tell you something other than “it sucks”, it’s just wishcasting, etc 2. Any winter type weather on model guidance is fake. Either add 30 degrees to arctic shots or assume all snow events will be rain They should have kept accuwx forums open for these clowns. I’m getting close to going digital office space with the ban/suspend button.

Fwiw, 18z GFS is still weak sauce with that 2/19-20 wave so it’s prob not gonna look good for 2/23. Queue the whiners in 3-2-1….

How was any of that wishcasting?

e1 was run on Scooter's computer.....

Nasty cold tuck on the NAM for NE MA and SE NH. Congrats to dendrite on ZR.

Deep thoughts from QG "add 30 degrees to the cold shot" Omega.

Yeah about 3 days ago, we were looking more at Feb 25th and beyond, but then 2/23 started showing up as a legit SWFE on several runs....and the reason was that 2/20-21 system started amplifying more and creating the cold and confluence necessary to give us 2/23.....today, we took a step back on that, but I'd be very careful in assuming it's not going to pan out. A handful of posters will do that anyway, but I'm talking about the ones who actually want to parse the data honestly. Ukie/GGEM were very suppressed....while I don't believe them, it could be a sign that the Euro was a little too lax on today's run. Even a compromise would work. There's also continuing signs that the March -NAO could be real....not gonna believe it yet, but we haven't had any steps back on that evolution.

PAC actually improved on the EPS out beyond the first 8 days and that east based NAO seems to be slowly getting stronger. Most notable step back today for me on the EPS was the weaker 2/20 system which produces less confluence behind it....keeping it more zonal for 2/22-23. IF we're gonna sneak that 2/22-23 system in as a winter event, we'll need the prior one to set the table.

I fully expect the Pacific to be crap during this entire period...and probably trend worse with time as we get closer....which is why all the other variables are important. We want that wave break to be as sharp as possible from the 2/20 system

I didn't like the trend of weakening that 2/20-21 deal in flatter flow....it doesn't drive the boundary down as far south behind it....you can see it on the EPS too with the heights in SE Canada not as low after that system as the 00z run. We want the flow a bit more amped for that one like GGEM/Ukie. But that's what the 2/22-23 system depends on. Doesn't really affect the systems that potentially may come after that (like 2/25-2/28 timeframe) But if we're gonna try and steal that 2/22-23 deal next week, then we need that front runner wave to be pretty amped.

That shortwave that ejected from the southwest (the one in TX at 168 and off Carolians coast at 192) whiffs us....prob why we got a bunch of weak unorganized crap this run.

Function of both the winter (lack of snow events) and the current pattern (nothing imminent inside of 7 days). Also a function of more model data and more model runs.

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We could end up with a 1980s sensible wx solution if things break wrong....cutters followed by arctic shots.

Problem is people get married to a solution or set of solutions that are really good....like we've seen several GFS runs produce multiple warning events and now when we get one that doesn't, it is deemed a failure before it ever got inside of 7 days....it's extremely hard to talk in layman's terms about probabilistic forecasting. Any threat from like 10 days out prob has something like a 1 in 5 shot at ever verifying (or even worse odds depending on the pattern).....but a good pattern will produce like 4 or 5 "threats" in the pipeline, so odds are that 1 or 2 of them will be hits by the time you get it closer. That's sort of what this pattern is showing....there will be a few shots....they all won't hit. Hopefully 1 or 2 of them do....but it's still possible none of them hit. There is a distinct cutter risk still....I think we've talked about it several times, but for some reason people act like we didn't mention it when an OP run (like today's 12z GFS) shows a cutter....they go "SEE!!! I TOLD YOU!!!! Its the same pattern!!!!1111111!2#3!!!!"

Are people supposed to not discuss guidance? I don't understand the ridicule for people pointing out patterns shown 10+ days out....an overwhelming majority of these posts are not making a forecast or saying it will definitely happen. Most of them are caveated with "hopefully we can get this inside 10 days" or some iteration. The worst is people who actually say nothing will change with extreme confidence and zero probabilistic nature to it. Persistence typically fails in the most high-leverage moments....which is why using it is so bad. Take the cold shot for example....yeah, it wasn't a snowstorm, but that cold shot was met with a plethora of "add 20 degrees" or "add 30 degrees" or "it's a complete model fabrication" type posts from the usual suspects....even when it was like 6-7 days out. Well, they look enormously ignorant now.....when the forecast actually mattered in a high-leverage type of event.

Fwiw, GEFS much more Ukie/GGEM-esque in the handling...though not quite as steroidal as those two...they were pretty suppressed looking.

FWIW, there's a difference between OP GFS and both Ukie/GGEM in handling the TPV extension over Hudson Bay. Ukie/GGEM are similar whiel GFS was quite a bit weaker this run with the TPV extension pressing down.

Yeah there is a little front-runner wave there...GFS on a few runs had advisory type snows with it...Euro last night actually had like 1-3" south of the pike. But some models don't produce much of anything.

The same system on the GFS that cuts actually whiffs us south on GGEM.

Funny how ridiculous some of these runs are in the final week of Feb....like 3 different storms. Even though it prob won't verify, it's a good illustration of the way these patterns can be prolific if things break right....we've seen some of these gradient patterns in the past go nuts where you are getting a system every 2-3 days on that fast flow (think Dec 2007, 2008 or Jan/Feb '94 or even Feb/Mar 1967)

Right, I wasn't saying the blocking is due to the 50mb split, but it give it a good chance of sustaining more. I think the initial NAO action is caused by the wave-break around D6....then it gets reinforced a couple times, but in order for it to be sustained into March, that PV split would help.

Blocking is already retrograding some at the end of the EPS....still a ways out, but we're starting to see evidence that we might actually get a more sustained -NAO.

Putting away the snow blower in mid-February in southern New Hampshire…got nobody to blame but himself if he has to dig it back out to deal with a snowstorm.

Good overnight runs. But yeah…long ways to go. At least we’re seeing consistency.