ORH_wxman

Yep. I’m guessing that’s what happened with ORH too but they prob won’t replace it until it’s at least 3F too warm. Right now it’s kind of somewhere around 2F to 3F. We discussed earlier in the cold shot thread, but the margin they give these things is obscene….2F in either direction. That sounds like insanity to me for a first order climate site, but here we are.

MADIS would catch all of that too…because it’s not that BOS might be warmer than some surrounding mesonets, it’s that the delta between them abruptly got much wider. So if the baseline is usually like BOS +1, it went to BOS +4 within like a month or or two.

We don’t know but they replaced the sensor and it fixed the error. So it was something with the old sensor but not sure what.

ORH is def running warm. Its not BS. It’s really obvious just looking casually at mesonets but MADIS confirms it is running about 2-3F too warm. I hadn’t heard anything about the others but it’s possible. BOS was a really bad offender in 2019 before it was corrected.

Like ‘97. I’ve said the story before but I remember 3 days before that system it was 65-70F with a light breeze and I was outside at the local driving range practicing since varsity golf tryouts in highschool were about a week away….some guys near me were talking about how they heard on the news that we might get 6 inches of snow in a few days and they were laughing at how the weathermen were likely all full of shit…I made a comment to them that it could be even more than 6” and they laughed it off as me being a dumb high schooler who didn’t know any better. I always wondered what their reaction was a few days later when they cracked 30”+.

Need to elongate the vertical front a little more…. You and I have talked about this before…but if we got an equivalent of the 1888 setup in 2023, you wonder if someone could pull 60+ with the added moisture in the atmosphere compared to then when spots pulled 50. These are hypothetical scenarios but there is definitely a return rate on something like that…whether it’s 1 in 100 or 1 in 1000 years it’s hard to say.

Just give us one big dog and call it a season. I’ll even go feed some geese if it helps.

Just reminded me of this scene…utterly hilarious https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UD0s8JkdVi0

We are going to have to “deal” with several model chances on this pattern over the next 10-15 days imho.

I'd be interested in a formal study of how so many EPO ridges this year folded over and caused monstrously deep troughs that went offshore in S CAL.....typical La Ninas have Aleutian ridges and west coast troughing, but we've often cleaned up in those patterns anyway as long as the Aleutian ridge was fairly poleward.....we've had poleward aleutian ridges many times this winter but almost every single time, the downstream trough buckled back southwest about 2 standard deviations from what we typically see in that type of pattern....was it coincidence? Probably not...there was something forcing it...but what? I doubt tropical forcing can explain all of it.

The East-based -NAO is critical too....if that goes poof, then we're likely done. But it's been pretty consistent so far.

Seeing a huge west coast ridge next season will feel like seeing Bald Eagle in the wild in the 1980s after this season.

Topped out at 61 here and now back down to 59 with overcast. Still amazing outside though.

I'm out on 2/23 until/unless we see this giving decent snows into at least southern part of SNE....but preferably trying to give snows into NYC too, because these tend to bump back north inside of 3-4 days.

I never moved mine out of the shed. My wife kept asking me when I was going to do it, and I told her that not until a large event (at least warning snows) is inside of 6 days. We haven't had one get inside that timeframe yet.

Sure it would....but their climo is snowier so "Winter over" up there could mean maybe they get 9" of snow in march instead of 25" and down here we get 4" or something instead of 15"...but there's different shades to this. Maybe the arctic doesn't quite get good enough for SNE, but it's good enough for NNE. It could also not be good enough for any of us and it's congrats Quebec again.

Yep, we will need the Atlantic side and AO region to be at least somewhat favorable. Otherwise, it goes torch.

Also cool that all the occurrences have been in La Nina....the warm February idea from La Nina isn't just urban legend.

It helps getting us to the magic 70F number....if you look in the historical record, there's plenty of 68s and 67s, etc in February for BOS....but CC helps us nudge that to 70F when you add in the underlying background warming. Inland, we've seen 70s in Feb before (like BDL has hit it in Feb '54, Feb '76, and Feb '85 prior to the 2017 and 2018 occurrences).

If that ULL got left behind, it would probably be better....having it eject faster hurts the CAA going on here.

Yeah we could conceivably get both....for 2/23 though it's probably a bit harder because the NAO isn't really established yet....that doesn't *try* to really become more permanent until the end of the month into early March. We are kind of using that 2/20-21 wave breaking to give us both a push south with the boundary and act as a 50/50 low as it swings up to the northeast. So we're mostly dependent on that piece offsetting any western troughing. So if the western trough is phasing more or digging deeper each run for 2/23, then we're going to have less available to offset it.

If that clipper on 2/26 verifies, with the way this winter has gone, we're gonna feel like it's 1991 when the 2-4" map is posted by Bruce Schwoegler.

Yep...GEM still looks like shit too. Ukie/Euro looked decent at 00z but I'm expecting them to trend north. Funny how 24h ago it was the Euro that was the ugliest but now that has flipped. 2/23 was always a tough pull....but it is possible if you drive that boundary far enough south which guidance is not doing as much.

Yeah I'm worried we revert back to the "cooler" side of a still dogshit pattern after today/tomorrow. That would be the worst case scenario.

GFS still looks like ka-ka for 2/23....hopefully other guidance looks better driving that initial boundary south.