ORH_wxman

It helps getting us to the magic 70F number....if you look in the historical record, there's plenty of 68s and 67s, etc in February for BOS....but CC helps us nudge that to 70F when you add in the underlying background warming. Inland, we've seen 70s in Feb before (like BDL has hit it in Feb '54, Feb '76, and Feb '85 prior to the 2017 and 2018 occurrences).

If that ULL got left behind, it would probably be better....having it eject faster hurts the CAA going on here.

Yeah we could conceivably get both....for 2/23 though it's probably a bit harder because the NAO isn't really established yet....that doesn't *try* to really become more permanent until the end of the month into early March. We are kind of using that 2/20-21 wave breaking to give us both a push south with the boundary and act as a 50/50 low as it swings up to the northeast. So we're mostly dependent on that piece offsetting any western troughing. So if the western trough is phasing more or digging deeper each run for 2/23, then we're going to have less available to offset it.

If that clipper on 2/26 verifies, with the way this winter has gone, we're gonna feel like it's 1991 when the 2-4" map is posted by Bruce Schwoegler.

Yep...GEM still looks like shit too. Ukie/Euro looked decent at 00z but I'm expecting them to trend north. Funny how 24h ago it was the Euro that was the ugliest but now that has flipped. 2/23 was always a tough pull....but it is possible if you drive that boundary far enough south which guidance is not doing as much.

Yeah I'm worried we revert back to the "cooler" side of a still dogshit pattern after today/tomorrow. That would be the worst case scenario.

GFS still looks like ka-ka for 2/23....hopefully other guidance looks better driving that initial boundary south.

Nighttime lows are known entity in CC literature to be more robust than daytime maxes. It makes sense because increased water vapor reduces the efficiency of radiational cooling. Now this winter, it has been exacerbated by the obscene amount of cloud cover we've had....I think January was the cloudiest month on record for several sites in New England. You get tons of clouds, and your low temps are going to be really high compared to baseline climo. Adding onto that, you get a feedback loop of sorts in places far enough south where the ground has had trouble freezing....so you get a ground with high moisture content in the soil which also inhibits radiational cooling somewhat on the clear nights we actually do get. In a more normal winter, our ground would be pretty frozen and dried out.

Clouds have gotten thicker here too but still getting some weak filtered sun. CT/RI/SE MA look the best right now for thinner cloud cover.

Tomorrow's cold front is going to be impressive....30+ degree temp drops inside of 6 hours on the table.

Still have at least another couple hours of filtered sun....not sure if we crack 70F somewhere, but it should get close...esp down in interior SE CT where the sun looks the best right now.

55F here right now....hopefully we get some snow out of this upcoming pattern because going back to 30s/40s and shit rain after today would suck.

Lower heights in the 50/50 region help hold in high pressure to our north....it creates confluence aloft in SE Canada. So if you're having systems come out of the midwest/Ohio Valley, you want to see those highs holding stout which creates the setup for a good SWFE/overrunning type snow event instead of the storm cutting into Ottawa or upstate NY. If you don't hold that high pressure, then it just ends up being a very quick flip to ZR/RA after maybe a couple inches.

50/50 area trended a lot better on overnight ensembles going forward. Like to see that.

How cold a winter in 1880 was has zero relevance to comparing why it’s like +8 against 1991-2020 normals. If you want to blame like 0.3 degrees of it on CC, then that’s fine, but good grief, this CC scapegoating is just as bad as saying 2015 disproves CC.

It’s a minor factor at best on a season to season basis. A baseline 2010s winter is like 6-7F colder than this.

The one silver lining about ratters is it helps us appreciate the good winters and storms more.

Ray can hold the phone up in the air

I think the only site that may have a realistic shot is ORH but that would come with a big asterisk since their ASOS is between 2-3F too warm so that’s a massive handicap baked in. But most sites should be in the top 5.

Yeah I see that now. Still shouldn’t be an N/A though.

Might have to be a sacrificial banning…impromptu GTG for it. We’ll have the entire bar chanting like in Temple of Doom before pressing the ban button.

I don’t think any of the missing years would have been lower for BDL or ORH. There were some ratters (esp ‘99-00) in there, but nothing threatening futility. 99-00 does have the latest measurable for several stations though. I think BOS is wrong in your rank and number needed for beating futility. They need 1.2 and you have it as “N/A”

I dont mind if people want to post that a good pattern on guidance will fail. But all I ask is use some meteorology/science to back up your reasoning and then an actual scientific debate can occur if we disagree. There’s an explicit reason we always explain in an event why our forecast might be different than model guidance shows (latent heat pumping up heights in gulf systems, mid-level magic/fronto not showing up well on QPF fields, models under-estimating low level CAD, etc)….the onus is on the person to explain why they differ from model guidance.

Everyone knows you aren’t rooting against snow. You are probably like a top 10 snow weenie on the entire site…you live for snow. We just know you deal with crappy patterns a lot by going reverse-psych. It’s not a bad hedge…you win a bet if you’re right, or you get to have some snow events to track if you’re wrong.

It’s on the reader if they are getting sucked into believing a 10 day SWFE will verify. I haven’t seen anyone saying it’s a lock to get good storms next week. This forum is supposed to be filled with seasoned hobbyists and Mets who should know better than to get sucked in. Now if a met starts forecasting huge snows and they don’t verify, that is one thing. But that hasn’t happened at all recently. The only time all winter I feel like most of us have honked was in December…and the longwave height pattern forecasted largely verified…I’ve posted the H5 composite for that 2-3 week period…we just happened to get skunked. That sucked, and it caused a lot of people to get snake bit. I get it. But since then, most of the decent patterns have been marginal at best or didn’t get inside 10 days. The very late January and early February colder pattern verified but again, we didn’t get much snow to show for it and it didn’t last very long. Almost everyone forecasted a lot of warmth for mid-February. That was pretty clear on LR guidance. This upcoming pattern is not as bad as earlier in the winter. It’s not Feb 2015 or Jan 2011 but it can produce. Will it? I dunno…we could get skunked again. Cutters are a definitive risk when you have the big west coast trough with little to no Atlantic blocking. But I am not going to lie to everyone here and say it’s the same pattern when it’s not. Are some features the same? Sure…like the WC troughing. But the Atlantic is different and the arctic is a bit different. That could be enough to matter…hence why we’re seeing more storms on these model runs than we have all winter. Do you think it’s a coincidence we’re seeing more snowy solutions? I don’t think it is. Will they verify? I have no idea.