ORH_wxman

Fwiw i moved the latest posts on the march threats to the march thread.

Yeah that makes more sense based on QPF. I think some were using the “snow depth change” maps which can be low…esp in any event that may have decent snow growth and below freezing temps.

It was basically one run. We’ve had several runs of 12-18” type snows though from both euro and gfs but that was when there was still a bit more trailing shortwave interaction.

Icon was over an inch of QPF for much of SNE. Looked better than 3-6

In 8 hours!

3/2-3/4 period doesn't look as ugly as yesterday did on EPS. There will be a chance in there I think

QGOmega is 5-posted....do you think you should be too?

It is when you cannot control your hyperbole.

Mic drop.....thank you very much

Yeah agreed John.....3/2 is actually showing up pretty strongly in the EPS....some of them try to cut, but many of them are of the snowier variety ala 00z OP Euro.

Yeah there will likely be almost an E-W oriented band for a time that just dumps....assuming we don't see other drastic changes to guidance. If people want to know the most likely thing that goes wrong in this? I'd say it's the shortwave becoming too weak and shears and then you end up with just a steady light to moderate snow that dumps maybe 4-7" or something instead of 6-10/8-12". Most guidance is keeping the shortwave fairly robust....but that's probably the main thing I'd watch for in terms of "Things that can go wrong". On the flip side, for "Things that can go right".....I'd say just watch the NAO blocking allowing even a little bit of additional trailing energy to try and interact....I'm not optimistic on that, but it's still within the envelope of solutions.

The limiting factor right now is duration. The higher model runs were longer duration. It required that trailing shortwave to partially phase in….clearly many in here were biting on that solution (hence the disappointment by many now that it’s trended away from that idea) but I’ve always thought it was a bit aggressive given the pattern. If we can slow this down a bit by trending the block a pinch stronger, then maybe we can bring those back….but I typically do not bank on complex shortwave interactions to deliver the goods. The single shortwave can still produce a really nice 8-10 hour period of moderate to heavy snow though. It has a nice neg tilt and a good high to the north to maximize frontogenesis.

Everything encased in ice here from overnight ZR. Maybe a quick squall incoming

Well 50s ain't happening, so.....

And? This is going to have good moisture. A thump will be a pretty decent warning event. We’re just not getting 12-18” without CCB snows. That’s been the realistic best case scenario and it could still happen, but best to not expect it.

Nobody is real out paying attention because of 2/28, but there could be an inch or two of fluff for some on Saturday afternoon. That has been slowly trending just a bit juicier. It will be a very cold snow too.

The assumption of trends is a common error in forecasting.

Yeah overnight runs really take away that trailing shortwave interaction. So that will put a cap on the thing’s potential. Still can’t complain though about a solid warning snowfall.

Mode is the most common result out of the trials.

Correct. Yeah I’m this storm there is good clustered agreement which is why the mean and median are roughly the same, but in storms with more disagreement, they will definitely diverge some.

In this case, there’s isn’t much difference between median and mean, but when you have a handful of members skewing the mean, it can be very relevant. It’s a good feature to have.

That’s a cool feature. Didn’t know they had 50th percentile on wxbell. In many senses, that is superior to a mean.

OP run looked a little blockier than 12z so not a total surprise. Prob why EPS followed suit.

Even a foot is pretty much deep winter. What the average pack for Stowe village (not the mountain) in late Feb? 18ish? But the foot you have is obscenely dense.

Could be a real goodie for SE MA.