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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    '97 also didnt have as much of a low appendage to the northwest...it had a minor one but it got absorbed pretty quickly when the storm bombed....that could happen in this one too, but again, that requires a max bombing out in a good location with the primary sinking a little further south....we don't want it holding on longer like on those GFS solutions overnight.
  2. ORH_wxman
    '97 had a perfect ULL track and max deepening location....it was a unicorn. There's a reason it is the top standard for late season snow events in eastern areas.
  3. ORH_wxman
    '97 had no airmass either, but the storm bombed out in the right spot to pull in a little bit of colder air that was lurking in Ontario/western Quebec (plus dynamical cooling too)....similar thing will need to happen in this one.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Bottom line is you're going to need huge rates in this one (thankfully it looks like that might happen) outside of the highest terrain. You also need a good track. Everything will have to go right to get a higher end storm or it could end up as a lot of lower end warning criteria or advisory criteria slop (with maybe some double digits in the hills/mountains).
  5. ORH_wxman
    Quite a different setup. That one had a beast high pressure up in Quebec/Nova Scotia.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Yeah here's the 2 most relevant panels for SNE....you can see how the tightest cluster is still near that out Cape/Islands area.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Def east of 00z but the spread increased. There’s more offshore and more inland members. The tightest cluster is still near the cape but maybe slightly east of the tightest 00z cluster.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Looks like end of 06z euro run is a bit more subdued than 00z. We’ll see if that makes a difference on the ensemble run in a bit.
  9. ORH_wxman
    We also don’t want that northern stream dropping in any earlier. In fact, I already think it’s dropping in too early and the only reason the euro/Ukie runs were good is because the southern stream took a wide turn. If they didn’t, this would be up the Hudson valley or CT valley. Looks like eps is putting this on the Cape/Islands still. There’s still a number of inland members…though only 2 of them are west of ORH. Most run them over BOS area and the largest cluster remains on the cape.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Rgem still looks pretty ugly. I’ll bet GGEM comes in running into SNE again.
  11. ORH_wxman
    It has a better look in Maine than the globals. That would’ve been really interesting if we could go out further.
  12. ORH_wxman
    I think you mean 2011.
  13. ORH_wxman
    EPS lost a lot of interior lows but it has a much bigger cluster near and over the cape now.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Yes
  15. ORH_wxman
    There's definite upside bust potential in W CT with that ULL. Too bad there wasn't a fresher airmass in place....prob would be talking more widespread double digit potential.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Palisades may change to rain at 6300 feet, though it probably won't last super long as snow levels drop again later Friday....Alpine may stay all snow as snow levels prob don't rise above 7k (or if they do, it's quite brief). Still looking at 4 to 8 feet of new snow there.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Upton doesn't cover Hartford county
  18. ORH_wxman
    Yeah was just gonna post that it's very similar to the Euro OP. You have that leading vort focusing the low pressure there and then it gets yanked back....might not take quite as wide a turn as Euro, but the result was similar enough
  19. ORH_wxman
    12z EPS was better than 00z. 00z took a tighter turn south of LI which made it a bit less snowy....it was 06z that was quite a bit east, but the 06z OP run only went to 90h so we never saw it's final solution. I think this is going to move around a bit though over the next few runs.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I'm sure several of the ensemble members just absorb it into the northern stream early on....or don't ever really see it. I'd like to see a bit better continuity on the northern stream though...it's been jumping around a little too much for my liking on a typical D4-5 forecast.
  21. ORH_wxman
    OP is probably right in the middle of the EPS....I think this makes a whiff a lot less likely now, but I never really bought the whiff idea. I've always been more concerned with ptype in this one. The key will be that lead southern streamer staying ahead of the northern stream long enough.
  22. ORH_wxman
    EPS def a good bit west of 06z....a lot of inland members now which were almost completely gone at 06z
  23. ORH_wxman
    Yes it is similar to some extent, though the Jan 2015 blizzard had probably even a wider turn....another one is late Feb 1969, but again, a wider turn on that one too which is why it wasn't a big deal west of the CT river. This one is not quite going as far east initially. (or southeast in the case of Jan 2015) A little bit of 3/13/18 too. But again, this northern stream seems to be slicing in from a little more west angle which keeps better precip further west.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Anytime you get legit heavy rates, it's going to latently cool the sfc to near freezing. With those rates and height falls shown on the Euro, it's going to be heavy snow under the CCB even in low elevations. If we end up with a system that produces only moderate rates, then the lower levels will definitely play a much larger role in preventing accumulations.
  25. ORH_wxman
    The height falls on that run are pretty crazy....trying to tear a hole in the atmosphere near ACK/MVY.
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