ORH_wxman

Yeah some of those early-era ASOS QPF numbers are awful.They've gotten a lot better but still not ideal.

Yeah I'm technically east of 495 but very close to it...and some other spots with a little bit of elevation too.

Yeah this is related to the discussion I had yesterday on why Feb 2013 was so prolific and also didn't have a lot of violent model swings once the non-Euro guidance caught onto it....it had a fairly fresh polar high to the north (I wouldn't call it arctic, but solid polar airmass) and this provided some real resistance to any potential westward moves in addition to obviously locking in the BL cold. The high providing resistance also increased the ML fronto in that storm which helps make it more prolific in snow totals. That not being present in this system means we're hoping for the ideal track. Like you said, I'm hoping as we get closer, maybe we see a little bit more resistance...it's not going to look like a Feb 2013 high, but even marginally more resistance goes a long way in areas that are progged to be marginal in this. Even a psuedo-decaying high sliding east of Houlton ME would be a little bit useful.

06z run got rid of most of the interior MA tracks looking at the clusters.

06z EPS is def a bit SE of 00z (don't worry, I made sure I was toggling the right frames this time...lol)

Yeah my guess is that would end up a little more subdued than 00z....we'll see what EPS says in a bit.

The winter was pretty much a torch but did have a good arctic spell from around New Year’s Eve into the first couple days of jan ‘97 and then another short arctic punch mid month.

We’re still in the time range where OP runs are glorified ensemble members. But you can see the range of possibilities…Canadian shows what happens when it goes wrong.

Looks like the 18z euro was into something. You can see how much more impressive the upper air is too on some of these runs.

Can we lock the icon even if it’s a weird solution?

Yeah I was toggling the wrong panels. That was my bad. Sorry about that.

Yeah if you count both Mar/Apr 1997 it was around 45”. It kind of had a similar end of the season feel to it. The pattern got a lot better in March and we got some snow events but you always felt like you should’ve had a bigger one. Then when it seemed we had wasted the chance for more (there was a blown Winter storm warning on 3/23 I think) and everyone is moving into spring, the 3/31-4/1 storm happens.

EPS looked a bit SE of 12z

Lol…my secret hope has been to get like a 45” March just to screw with the seasonal numbers. But unlikely that happens now since we didn’t get hit hard enough on 3/4 and then whiffing on 3/11.

That’s an interesting move by a model that typically doesn’t make big moves. We’ll see shortly if the NAM can come in with a big bump too…I’d be inclined to think it’s real if it does.

Yeah that’s actually a great look there.

Eh. That’s a sacred bar to jump over…it’s not impossible with this type of closed off low and stall…that makes a very high end storm plausible…but you obviously need everything to go right. If we’re seeing the stall/capture scenarios southeast of SNE in another 36 hours, then maybe it might be worth more seriously considering.

It starts as rain for many. But then bombs out and flips to snow.

Narcan prob a little too stingy over interior (except maybe N ORH county)....blend it with the 10 to 1.

It starts at D5.

Prob the worst I-95 NYC to DCA winter since 2001-02. BOS isn't doing much better, though they have already passed 2011-12...we'll see if they can muster up enough to get past 2019-20's putrid 15.9 inches.

So you're basically leaning MECS/HECS for a large chunk of the forum....bold call at D5, though it's certainly within the envelope of solutions. I wish there was some decent high pressure to the north though.

Ensembles don't go out that far, but based on the end of the run, it still looks pretty blocky.

EPS says she's not gonna let us out.

Here's a snapshot of 144h....this is when the storm on the OP was over Block Island. There seems to be a cluster near where the OP was...maybe just south of the OP....then another cluster near the outer Cape/ACK...then a lot of Buckshot outside of that