ORH_wxman

Euro is able to ooze down the arctic airmass a bit which produces a much colder outcome. It’s really cold in the low levels. It has upper teens and low 20s over the interior of SNE during sleet.

Euro and Ukie trying suck people back in for 2/23. Euro is a pretty big sleet bomb (n of pike does get a bit of a thump prior)

Euro is trying to give a little snow north of the pike for the front-runner wave on 2/21.

If we retrograde the block into the western domain, it would prob force the SE ridge to retrograde some…there will be two opposing forces there…hard to say which one would win but on that loop it clearly retros the se ridge.

Yeah nobody should count on it being right…but if your looking for optimism, I can’t remember the last time we got a lot of weenie GFS runs before the last few days. Probably have to go back to early December at the beginning of that blocking period. It’s a sign that the pattern is more favorable than it was…but still keep caution flags up for all the reasons we’ve already discussed.

It was still a pretty weenie-ish run. Two decent sized snow events and a close miss on 2/23 (lots of sleet for SNE)

Yep. I’m guessing that’s what happened with ORH too but they prob won’t replace it until it’s at least 3F too warm. Right now it’s kind of somewhere around 2F to 3F. We discussed earlier in the cold shot thread, but the margin they give these things is obscene….2F in either direction. That sounds like insanity to me for a first order climate site, but here we are.

MADIS would catch all of that too…because it’s not that BOS might be warmer than some surrounding mesonets, it’s that the delta between them abruptly got much wider. So if the baseline is usually like BOS +1, it went to BOS +4 within like a month or or two.

We don’t know but they replaced the sensor and it fixed the error. So it was something with the old sensor but not sure what.

ORH is def running warm. Its not BS. It’s really obvious just looking casually at mesonets but MADIS confirms it is running about 2-3F too warm. I hadn’t heard anything about the others but it’s possible. BOS was a really bad offender in 2019 before it was corrected.

Like ‘97. I’ve said the story before but I remember 3 days before that system it was 65-70F with a light breeze and I was outside at the local driving range practicing since varsity golf tryouts in highschool were about a week away….some guys near me were talking about how they heard on the news that we might get 6 inches of snow in a few days and they were laughing at how the weathermen were likely all full of shit…I made a comment to them that it could be even more than 6” and they laughed it off as me being a dumb high schooler who didn’t know any better. I always wondered what their reaction was a few days later when they cracked 30”+.

Need to elongate the vertical front a little more…. You and I have talked about this before…but if we got an equivalent of the 1888 setup in 2023, you wonder if someone could pull 60+ with the added moisture in the atmosphere compared to then when spots pulled 50. These are hypothetical scenarios but there is definitely a return rate on something like that…whether it’s 1 in 100 or 1 in 1000 years it’s hard to say.

Just give us one big dog and call it a season. I’ll even go feed some geese if it helps.

Just reminded me of this scene…utterly hilarious https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UD0s8JkdVi0

We are going to have to “deal” with several model chances on this pattern over the next 10-15 days imho.

I'd be interested in a formal study of how so many EPO ridges this year folded over and caused monstrously deep troughs that went offshore in S CAL.....typical La Ninas have Aleutian ridges and west coast troughing, but we've often cleaned up in those patterns anyway as long as the Aleutian ridge was fairly poleward.....we've had poleward aleutian ridges many times this winter but almost every single time, the downstream trough buckled back southwest about 2 standard deviations from what we typically see in that type of pattern....was it coincidence? Probably not...there was something forcing it...but what? I doubt tropical forcing can explain all of it.

The East-based -NAO is critical too....if that goes poof, then we're likely done. But it's been pretty consistent so far.

Seeing a huge west coast ridge next season will feel like seeing Bald Eagle in the wild in the 1980s after this season.

Topped out at 61 here and now back down to 59 with overcast. Still amazing outside though.

I'm out on 2/23 until/unless we see this giving decent snows into at least southern part of SNE....but preferably trying to give snows into NYC too, because these tend to bump back north inside of 3-4 days.

I never moved mine out of the shed. My wife kept asking me when I was going to do it, and I told her that not until a large event (at least warning snows) is inside of 6 days. We haven't had one get inside that timeframe yet.

Sure it would....but their climo is snowier so "Winter over" up there could mean maybe they get 9" of snow in march instead of 25" and down here we get 4" or something instead of 15"...but there's different shades to this. Maybe the arctic doesn't quite get good enough for SNE, but it's good enough for NNE. It could also not be good enough for any of us and it's congrats Quebec again.

Yep, we will need the Atlantic side and AO region to be at least somewhat favorable. Otherwise, it goes torch.

Also cool that all the occurrences have been in La Nina....the warm February idea from La Nina isn't just urban legend.