ORH_wxman

Guidance is trending colder for the commahead/CCB over E MA on Tuesday. Esp the mesos…GFS not as much but it still slays anyway. But this becomes a bit different if we go 29-31F over the CP on Tuesday with 50mph winds. That would up the impact quite a bit.

That NAM solution is a blizzard for E MA. Temps fall into the upper 20s in the commahead with like 50 mph winds.

Hrrr is def less IVT. Consolidating quicker. Nice to see that trend from 18z reverse at least on one model.

Winter hill scorpion bowls. I might be camped out there on Tuesday.

He almost did Lancaster/Whitefield NH too and those are downslope hellscapes for snow weenies too (but they do get epic frigid in winter). Anyways, hoping for better trends at 00z with the CCB.

At some point that low chasing the convection is either going to happen or it isn’t. That little vort doesn’t want to get phased into the northern stream like we saw on many previous runs.

Man…gonna be a tough forecast. I think at some point a chunk of SNE is going to get a really strong deformation/fronto band just based on what we’re seeing in the mid and upper levels…it’s a really classic look…but what happens on either side of that makes a huge difference in whether this is a HECS type storm or merely a late season heavy snowfall that isn’t lighting up the record books. If we’re wasting too much of the front end on rain, then that makes a big difference. I think ORH county to Berkshires are looking pretty favorable for at least double digits (and someone prob sees 20+ in that zone). Elsewhere, much tougher forecast.

Gives a colder solution too when you get that cold conveyor going earlier. The convective southern streamer chasing east prevents the conveyor from getting established earlier.

That more dominant northern stream is something we’d been trending away from but of course this event isn’t that easy…euro had to bring it back stronger this run. Keeps us on our toes at least.

Everyone’s nervous before the euro comes out. Even Wolfie.

You went from a euro-skeptic to a euro-truther in about 2 days.

This is excellent. Something MaineJayhawk would come up with.

No, but your area is still looking pretty good.

Yeah I have a hard time seeing how ORH gets less than a foot unless this thing unravels with a strong trend toward primary being dominant…which guidance has trended away from in the past 24-36 hours. Toughest area in MA is prob like Ray and your area near ASH down 495 and then towards 128 and interior SE MA. I feel reasonably confident at a big storm for the 495 crowd but there’s enough lingering doubt that we get a sloppy 3-6” instead of double digits that I want to see another model run. A good euro run would increase confidence because the euro has been pretty bullish and relatively consistent.

The Ukie has a pretty bad warm bias right at the sfc.

That is a great product….but those are only useful if the model is accurate. I wouldn’t trust the 51 hour NAM at this point. They’ll be better to use tomorrow when hopefully we have more model consensus.

Yeah highest terrain maybe. If we start seeing more NAM-esque soundings, then higher ratios become more likely. But we have a lot of solutions that are pretty warm in the BL still.

SREFs pretty much useless until like 24h out..which makes them useless overall these days. They used to be ok on winter storms when they had the ETA members included.

Yes maybe. That doesn’t change my point though. NAM was pretty cold but people should stop posting 10 to 1 unless we’re doing it with caveats.

Stop using 10 to 1 maps

No but it’s certainly a possible solution.

NAM is like classic KU with all the features for SNE.

For now we sell, but it’s silly to completely ignore. There’s enough guidance that shows exceptional rates and the dynamical support aloft. We’ll see today if more guidance trends toward that or toward more mundane.

Agree with what? Caution flags there? Yeah I would. Even here I still have caution flags…I think we’re looking pretty good for warning snows, but there’s a big difference between 6-8” and 18”. I think for places like ORH up to Hubbdave, it’s time to chuck ‘em, but south and east still have more questions to iron out.

Id prob weight the NAM like 10% right now. It gets more weight once we’re down to about 36h.