ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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That’s an ugly solution but there is a way to still get a decent storm if that trailer catches up like the 18z icon. Or we keep the initial s/w stronger.
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I’m not convinced SNE is a mostly rain event yet on 1/10. Esp for interior. You gotta remember that thing is still 8 days out.
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Wonder if some of those slower EPS members are doing the same thing.
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Trailer s/w caught it and prolongs the event into like a 30-36 hour deal. That would be a new twist.
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That does show that 1/10 even on the EPS is still a legit threat for NNE. OP run was the warmest outlier. Hopefully we can trend that even colder further south. There’s some competing forces though so it’s certainly possible the warmer idea wins out too.
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It’s cold at 925. Barring a true hugger track, prob gonna need to be within 5-10 miles of water to be above freezing and areas a little further north like BOS might stay below anyway.
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Agreed. Just need it to verify now. Lol. GEFS was a little less ideal but still decent….hopefully EPS are more correct.
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Yeah EPS still has that Nw cluster
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Agreed. North of 00z EPS but a touch south of 06z EPS. Waiting on individual clusters to come out.
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Good chance for lingering light snow since the shortwave is stretched/sheared out at the end…sort of forces an IVT to hang back and keep light snow falling. Don’t think additional accums would be big but like an inch or two from late afternoon through evening wouldn’t be surprising in that type of setup.
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Hopefully it’s out to lunch vs other guidance. That’s a huge difference. Some guidance gives warning criteria snow for just about all of CNE/NNE (and even close in parts of SNE) while Euro is not much at all and prolonged mild rains.
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This current 1/7 storm def is more of an El Niño flavor…I was more referring to the pattern that follows. Very La Niña as we start building SE ridge and western trough. Hopefully blocking is good enough to keep us on the cold side most of the time. That said, Euro doesn’t want to cooperate much with the 1:10 threat. Not nearly as CADish and cold as the other 12z guidance. We’ll see what EPS says in a bit.
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Track wasn’t too dissimilar (maybe a hair S) but it was not a dynamic as the Ukie solution. Still a solid storm but a Euro type solution is more of like a 5-10” storm for SNE (maybe a higher lolli) rather than 8-12/10-15 or something like that which some of the other guidance has.
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Shortwave doesn’t really have much integrity to it like other guidance which I why the whole thing is weaker than other guidance.
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North of 00z but still on the southern envelope of 12z guidance.
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Not sure I’ve ever seen an arctic high “fill with tropical maritime air”….interesting physics and thermodynamics there. Might be a new discovery.
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Confluence is good…just as long as you aren’t so close to it that it screws you. Confluence is what helps create awesome fronto bands.
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Versus your old ‘hood in Woodstock? Yeah it will taint quicker near Ginxy but not by much. He’s in a decent spot far enough off the water for major concerns. I’d think that area would need a true hugger track (like basically over the forks of LI) to have major ptype issues. Im assuming you’re near Moosup/Sterling? I’m on mobile so I can’t see locations in posts right now.
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Actually a really nice look for Boston on Ukie. Crush job over eastern areas. Most of SNE does well but nice enhancement east.
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Looks like Ukie is going to be a bit tamer than 00z but that isn’t a shock since 00z was super amped tainting most of SNE.
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Pretty tight cluster on northern edge but none of them get inland. EPS had a couple onshore in CT but most of them stayed S of LI and all of them do on the GEFS save maybe one right near it. There is a northern extent to this because of the trough out west and the confluence up north. Here 12z GEFS.
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La Niña pattern. Looks like 07-08 or 08-09 on some of these progs with that gradient.
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GGEM went way colder and more CAD as well for 1/10. Doesn’t even taint once you get up to dendrite. Maybe a sneaky warm layer for a brief time.
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Coast and SE areas don’t want that low gaining too much latitude before it slides ENE due to onshore flow. Gotta keep it a bit south. That’s actually true for everyone but interior has a lot more wiggle room for how close the sfc low gets.
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GGEM similar tho maybe a little south of GFS. These tracks are very similar to that EPS cluster that were NW of the mean…basically going over ACK.
