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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Actually retros into Hubbdave, lol These hi res mesos are pretty much useless after 6 hours....we can't even trust the Euro right now at 24h.
  2. ORH_wxman
    That map doesn't look good for N middlesex and western Essex county.
  3. ORH_wxman
    I'd like to see just another half tick S and weaker with the IVT, and then I'd be very confident in widespread 8-12"
  4. ORH_wxman
    IF we can reduce that IVT just a shade more, I feel like we'll get a non-inear response to the snow in areas right on the edge....we're talking about 1C or so for many areas around 495 and down into N CT near Kevin.
  5. ORH_wxman
    That was a pounding for eastern areas from like midday through mid evening tomorrow.
  6. ORH_wxman
    RPM model....that was always a fun one.
  7. ORH_wxman
    16z RAP was the first run that trended a bit colder at 925....still warmer than most guidance given the trend of the past several runs...it will take several more colder trends to reverse the warmer ones from earlier this morning. But we'll see if it can cool a bit because that makes a huge difference over the elevated interior overnight tonight.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Hopefully it's playing into its overamped bias beyond 9 hours. But I've noticed the trend on every HRRR/RAP run is to be stronger with the IVT low and flood more and more BL warmth into SNE. That will quickly end any top end snowfall forecasts if that trend is real.
  9. ORH_wxman
    GFS gone wild tomorrow morning.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Stay in Gardiner MA. I think there's a super 8 right off Rt 2 there around 1200 feet
  11. ORH_wxman
    ORH nuke on Reggie
  12. ORH_wxman
    Lol, 3k NAM went insane over eastern areas tomorrow....I think there's a bit of chasing with that sfc low position....clearly the best dynamics are well southwest of it.
  13. ORH_wxman
    It was obvious early on that it was going to get its act together a bit earlier....which is what helps with all the conveyors maturing quicker and giving a monster CCB to a lot of SNE.
  14. ORH_wxman
    NAM is going to be more consolidated it looks like
  15. ORH_wxman
    HRRR retros the low back to ASH and brings pellets all the way back into central NH to the north of it.
  16. ORH_wxman
    That front end is cooling a bit on HRRR....crushes high terrain even down to Kevin
  17. ORH_wxman
    Euro has those dual lows extremely far apart. That will produce an outcome like that if that’s actually real.
  18. ORH_wxman
    I didn’t like the 3k as much…low escapes further east. It still goes to town verbatim, but synoptically I wish it was more like the 12k.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Low isn’t escaping east as much on 06z NAM so it really goes to town tomorrow. Full blown blizzard for eastern areas. Def gets further west much better too than the 00z run.
  20. ORH_wxman
    ORH obliterator on the Canadian.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Guidance is trending colder for the commahead/CCB over E MA on Tuesday. Esp the mesos…GFS not as much but it still slays anyway. But this becomes a bit different if we go 29-31F over the CP on Tuesday with 50mph winds. That would up the impact quite a bit.
  22. ORH_wxman
    That NAM solution is a blizzard for E MA. Temps fall into the upper 20s in the commahead with like 50 mph winds.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Hrrr is def less IVT. Consolidating quicker. Nice to see that trend from 18z reverse at least on one model.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Winter hill scorpion bowls. I might be camped out there on Tuesday.
  25. ORH_wxman
    He almost did Lancaster/Whitefield NH too and those are downslope hellscapes for snow weenies too (but they do get epic frigid in winter). Anyways, hoping for better trends at 00z with the CCB.
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