ORH_wxman

That was a decent bump on 00z NAM. CT really gets pounded but even pike region is prob low end warning snow there.

Wow those are gorgeous pics subdude. They look great with the fresh snow too.

Really nice outline John…thanks for the start on this thread. Im going to ask people to keep this thread cleaner than the last one. Keep the discussion on topic. There’s going to be highs and lows on the model guidance, but stick to the meteorology. We have a banter thread too if peeps need to sound off (and a panic thread too).

Might be the heaviest snow I’ve ever seen. My aunt used to live right up near Alpine Meadows ski resort so we’d go there sometimes. Feb 1994 (ironically during the brief thaw in the east that winter) when I was on school vacation we went and there was a storm that dropped about 6-7 feet in 3 days but one of the days must have snowed 4 feet and during the peak of it I’m guessing it was like 7-8 inches per hour. Might have been slightly more even….it was actually kind of scary being out in it because you couldn’t see anything. Vis was maybe 25 feet? This was well before normal people had cellphones so you could actually wander 20 yards in the wrong direction and have no way to get back or call for help.

18z euro still ka-ka for us easterners. It actually looked a bit better than 12z for the CT crew.

This stuff is jspin blower fluff. Tried to get all the sparkling in the pic

Yep. Can’t even let the CT folks go 5 posts to enjoy the lead-up to this without the 15th time telling us how shitty the system looks for eastern MA

Just getting into this band. Snow has commenced and vis dropping quickly

LOL. Brings back Feb ‘89 PTSD for me. At least we still got 4 inches of sand in that one. But oh man, same exact vibe. Snow started way late in that one and it ended up being a cape crusher.

Individuals

I agree this synoptic setup is not a ridge linking up…there’s a clear 50/50 signal in between the positive height anomalies. Here’s 144h right as the storm is gearing up to form..the SE ridge offshore (more like a WAR there) puts my suppression concerns lower on the list…so I agree with scooter that this doesn’t really look like a whiff storm. I’d be more worried about ptype

You’re in a pretty good spot for this one. I’d feel good in CT right now. I may have to resign myself to limping to 3 inches…assuming it doesn’t trend worse. But I am an empirical man and statistical man…I don’t just assume this will keep trending worse because of previous failures. There’s always a point where it stops and starts wobbling…just like the 2/23 event did and actually gave us pike-dwellers a real semblance of a snow pack.

I was shocked to see Logan airport at 18F at 2pm in late February. Esp in a winter like this. Actual real cold airmass.

Actually looks like a nice weenie band near @radarman’s hood down into windham county CT

Euro did make a nice jump north for 3/4. Still whiffs us but not by much. A GFS/Euro compromise would be pretty sweet.

Ugh. That’s brutal. Only consolation is id rather need a shift north than one south right now…but that is ugly. Just gets ground up.

Ukie is definitely not going to get it done for us easterners. Good run for CT though.

I was fine with most guidance this morning minus the Canadian twins. We’ll see what ukie and euro do.

GFS had a nice weenie band sig up near the pike to the NH border region.

I mean, look at the 12/23/97 shortwave…it really wasn’t that impressive. But it had a nice neg tilt and held together just enough to pull that moisture in. We’re still not sure what caused the 6-8” per hour rates in that. Really bizarre.

Just keep ticking that shortwave a little stronger and I think it would pay dividends.

NAM def better looking. Not totally surprising though as it was the most paltry at 00z and 06z. So it wa a probably going to trend toward others.

Shortwave looks a little more vigorous on the NAM through 48. The block though also looks like it is holding a bit tougher too so not sure if we’ll see much trend here.