ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Euro took a bit of a harder trend north in the midlevels, but agreed it’s not a multi cycle thing yet. Could easily go back south at 12z.
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It’s called this dude…
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Euro just came in significantly warmer now at 06z. This trend was expected though…we kept saying it was coming. It was just a matter of how far south we could tick it first. Not too optimistic here for much snow. I think a lot of IP. Though if we’re not careful on the north ticks, it could still end up at mostly cold rain here too. But I do think that PV confluence will put a cap on things.
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Ukie was quite a bit colder than 12z. Actually has warning snows down into N CT. Seems like some mixed results at 00z. Crazy Uncle have been on the bottle though too….tries to dump like 4-5” in the clipper prior to the 2/23 storm too in the pike region. My gut still says mostly IP here though. I’d want to see most models going 00 Ukie tomorrow before pulling the trigger in plowable snowfall.
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I’ll add that we did get a couple of good events in Mar ‘99 too as that month turned very blocky…but the big ocean storm was Feb 25-26, 1999
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That was late Feb 1999. Actually hit all the way back into central areas but the Cape got the worst of it.
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There will probably be a relatively narrow band (say 50 miles wide?) that gets 1”+ of QPF but I can’t see lots of half inch type totals on either side of it…but this will prob be longer duration with a lot of hazards to watch in the areas where it goes to IP/ZR. As we already know, freezing drizzle/mist for 6 hours is bad enough even if it totaling 0.2” of QPF.
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Yeah the more it trends, it’s more of a stationary overrunning look that slowly lifts northeast. But not the classic quick 4-7 hour thump of a typical SWFE. This is far longer duration.
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Basically keeps Ray’s hood all snow that run until the very end. Coldest run we’ve seen yet since this got closer than clown range.
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Hopefully the ridge retrogrades just a shade more than shown which would make that event even more favorable. It’s kind of a tight squeeze at the moment where the redevelopment potentially comes too late. The 2/28 signal is actually a classic Archambault event for the NAO transitioning from positive to negative straight out of the original published paper in the early/mid 2000s.
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Rgem kind of went nuts too at 12z. Looks a little more tame at 18z. It does appear that most guidance now has accumulating snowfall in SNE….the question is whether it’s 1-2” sloppy inches or if it turns into this 3-6” solid advisory event.
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Yep. ICON tossed far for those 60s in CT. Pretty big outlier compared to other guidance which mainly keeps that warm sector down in central NJ and southward.
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Euro came In a tick colder.
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Prob hedge toward GEFS idea until there’s a good reason not to. Still not buying much snow here.
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Yeah even a couple inches would be welcome prior to Thursday. That clipper has been steadily coming south…though I still think it ends up mostly for NNE. But I won’t complain if we get something.
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12z NAM gone wild with Tuesday morning front runner wave.
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Prob more like 2-3”….you’d need temps in the teens and 20s to get the higher 3 or 4 to 1 sleet ratios…you’d want some pixie dust mixed in. Maybe over the interior has a few spots that have decent sleet ratios but most spots that are pretty cold in low levels are going to see some snow on the front end.
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Ok that’s fair…but it’s getting established already by D10, so we’d prob need a quick reversal in guidance for it not to materialize. I don’t find that likely…but it’s still possible.
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That’s not where the change is coming from. It’s coming from the PV pressing early on and then later it’s the retrograding NAO block.
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That was a pretty frigid 06z GFS run for 2/23. Look at the surface too. Upper teens in interior MA N of pike. Won’t see much liquid on that.
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Pretty classic Miller B look there. Ensembles have shown some transient ridging in Rockies so as long as that is there, that will remain an interesting date.
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Some @OceanStWx ensemble sensitivity number would be good for this one. I’d bet that shortwave going through the lakes on Monday night plays a significant role. I’d assume some of the west coast troughing also plays a role and probably a bit of the PV itself.
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That system trending further south has been helping 2/23 tick colder because it drives the arctic boundary further south behind it. So we’ll want to see that keep trending deeper/south with the shortwave.
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Yeah it’s been cooling but I feel like us pike-dwellers will want to see that go up quite a bit more before expecting plowable snowfall. These strong SWFE with big SE ridges rarely stay on the colder trend. They start eating away like 10 miles at a time once we get inside of 3 days or so. But who knows…maybe this one will keep trending colder longer than we’re used to.
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Not as good but still a chance. A lot of the members have sharp cutoffs near the CT/MA border…but I’d say maybe 1 in 4 gave you warning criteria. And maybe 40% advisory or more.
