ORH_wxman

We’re maxed out after 2008. We’ll never see another like that in our lifetimes. It was a life storm for ORH hills over to far NE MA and far S NH.

Not super similar. That one was more of a straight overrunning setup and didn’t involve a compact shortwave running into confluence like this one. It did have that northeast to southwest gradient in temps. This setup is not super common. CIPS said top analog was Feb 21, 2005 and that was a 5-9” type event for a chunk of SNE though it was clearly weaker than this modeled event…both aloft and at the sfc.

The Euro suite is definitely ugly for 3/4 all of the sudden. Very strong cutter signal on the EPS…other guidance isn’t as bad but I didn’t love the 12z look today overall. Hopefully it trends back in the next few cycles.

So it would still be an F if you got, say, 17 inches in the Feb 28th storm and then just a few scraps in March? I guess the rest of the season was bad enough to maybe warrant such a grade but 17 inches is a big storm…esp for the CT river valley.

Nice temp gradient today…80 at IAD and 78 at BWI

The only “threat” that made it anywhere close was the 1/23 “happy ending” event. That wasn’t a big deal though. Maybe 2-4” with some 5-6” lollis.

We never got a good threat inside d6 in December. Unless you count 12/16 for elevated interior north of the pike. But that excluded about 90% of the posters in SNE.

It’s not really a pure inverted trough. It’s basically that second trailing shortwave diving in and prolonging the CCB mid-level easterly flow but it sort of forms an IVT at the sfc during that phase which makes sense…it’s trying to “pull back” the sfc low because of the upper forcing from the trailing shortwave.

Maybe closer to 2”. Super dense though.

Picked Up another half inch in the OES earlier. Not really in the band anymore but still some steady snizzle. Everything covered really nice. Temp rotting at 24F

Kuchera is better in marginal events like last night. It almost always weenies out too much in colder events.

Yeah it’s definitely possible some places score huge totals in this but it requires many things to go right. So obviously one shouldn’t *expect* it. All model guidance has the initial thump…that’s gonna produce low end warning totals on its own most likely. 5-8/6-10 type stuff. Now if we’re trying to go 12-18, that requires a bit of extra forcing from IVT or CCB…the two kind of smear together eventually in the euro but most guidance has at least a semblance of CCB snow…esp up in MA. So there’s a reason to think at least some areas are going to get double digits…where that is widespread or not remains to be seen but it’s certainly on the table.

Boomers grew up thinking -6 monthly departures and well above normal snows were long term climo. Millennials grew up thinking 20-burger storms grew on trees. Our cynical generation knows better.

Good trailing shortwave interaction really extending the snow on this run.

This is what getting an inordinate number of 20 burgers will do to expectations.

It was a widespread 6-12” for SNE.

My guess is many were secretly starting to get attached to the thought of a 20-burger storm after yesterday’s Euro and all other guidance had been trending better too. The natural inclination is to sort of expect it to keep trending better so when it reverts back to a more “mundane” 8-12 inch type event, it produces a sense of disappointment. It’s hard not to get attached to big solutions…esp when it comes from the Euro inside of 6 days. I’ll add that it’s still possible we see some bigger totals. That trailing shortwave was close on some of the 12z runs today so far.

Don’t see a solution I hate yet at 12z.

E MA crushed. IVT really hangs on there.

Borderline moderate in the terminus of these echoes. Really good flakes.

Wow congrats!

Logan is about to drop. Seeing some upper 20s in Revere now on mesonet

Lol we just dropped like a rock…25.3F and dropping fast.

As long as people are realistic about this storm, I think at the moment things look pretty good. You gotta let go of the HECS idea though if any of you are still thinking it’s likely…that isn’t happening unless that second shortwave speeds up today and we start seeing that phased solution again. But this can still be a major storm…things need to go right for that. At the moment, I’m just trying to get a minimal warning event in here.

Beer?