ORH_wxman

In 8 hours!

3/2-3/4 period doesn't look as ugly as yesterday did on EPS. There will be a chance in there I think

QGOmega is 5-posted....do you think you should be too?

It is when you cannot control your hyperbole.

Mic drop.....thank you very much

Yeah agreed John.....3/2 is actually showing up pretty strongly in the EPS....some of them try to cut, but many of them are of the snowier variety ala 00z OP Euro.

Yeah there will likely be almost an E-W oriented band for a time that just dumps....assuming we don't see other drastic changes to guidance. If people want to know the most likely thing that goes wrong in this? I'd say it's the shortwave becoming too weak and shears and then you end up with just a steady light to moderate snow that dumps maybe 4-7" or something instead of 6-10/8-12". Most guidance is keeping the shortwave fairly robust....but that's probably the main thing I'd watch for in terms of "Things that can go wrong". On the flip side, for "Things that can go right".....I'd say just watch the NAO blocking allowing even a little bit of additional trailing energy to try and interact....I'm not optimistic on that, but it's still within the envelope of solutions.

The limiting factor right now is duration. The higher model runs were longer duration. It required that trailing shortwave to partially phase in….clearly many in here were biting on that solution (hence the disappointment by many now that it’s trended away from that idea) but I’ve always thought it was a bit aggressive given the pattern. If we can slow this down a bit by trending the block a pinch stronger, then maybe we can bring those back….but I typically do not bank on complex shortwave interactions to deliver the goods. The single shortwave can still produce a really nice 8-10 hour period of moderate to heavy snow though. It has a nice neg tilt and a good high to the north to maximize frontogenesis.

Everything encased in ice here from overnight ZR. Maybe a quick squall incoming

Well 50s ain't happening, so.....

And? This is going to have good moisture. A thump will be a pretty decent warning event. We’re just not getting 12-18” without CCB snows. That’s been the realistic best case scenario and it could still happen, but best to not expect it.

Nobody is real out paying attention because of 2/28, but there could be an inch or two of fluff for some on Saturday afternoon. That has been slowly trending just a bit juicier. It will be a very cold snow too.

The assumption of trends is a common error in forecasting.

Yeah overnight runs really take away that trailing shortwave interaction. So that will put a cap on the thing’s potential. Still can’t complain though about a solid warning snowfall.

Mode is the most common result out of the trials.

Correct. Yeah I’m this storm there is good clustered agreement which is why the mean and median are roughly the same, but in storms with more disagreement, they will definitely diverge some.

In this case, there’s isn’t much difference between median and mean, but when you have a handful of members skewing the mean, it can be very relevant. It’s a good feature to have.

That’s a cool feature. Didn’t know they had 50th percentile on wxbell. In many senses, that is superior to a mean.

OP run looked a little blockier than 12z so not a total surprise. Prob why EPS followed suit.

Even a foot is pretty much deep winter. What the average pack for Stowe village (not the mountain) in late Feb? 18ish? But the foot you have is obscenely dense.

Could be a real goodie for SE MA.

I think you mean 1921? The November all-timer that crushed all the way down to south of PVD? But yeah, that was a coastal too. Kind of like a colder version of 2008.

1973 was actually a coastal too but not like 2008 was. It was more elongated but def still a coastal storm.

Yeah you want to see at least 1.5” of QPF for a big icer…preferably higher than 2” but this storm had pretty efficient accretion down there due to generally light rates so it prob could’ve been a real biggie if it had even 1.4-1.6 of QPF. If your accretion efficiency was 80% which is above the median of 72%, then 2 inches of ice QPF will produce 1.6” of flat ice accretion which is about 0.70” of radial ice (radial ice is usually about 40% of flat ice). In 2008, I measured close to an inch of radial ice, which was incredible considering we didn’t have super efficient accretion rates in that one….but shear QPF overwhelmed the efficiency issues in that. We were putting up 3-4” of QPF.

That’s an all-timer type storm. Top 5. Hard to be too disappointed in a winter that produces a top 5 storm…regardless of the rest of it. At least my own personal grade would be at least a C. I prob couldn’t go much higher because I do enjoy having snowpack for a chunk of the winter and snow around the holidays…both of which were an utter dumpster fire this year.