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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    I think about a third of an inch of radial ice which is getting into the damage zone pretty good. You start seeing some moderately widespread damage once you pass about a quarter inch…but it starts to ramp up quick after that. I’ve always used 3/8ths as the “almost guaranteed to lose power” threshold and he was getting close to that. Once you get to a half inch radial, it’s pretty much disastrous damage and no power…anything up near 3/4ths or higher is catastrophic.
  2. ORH_wxman
  3. ORH_wxman
    Yea he did. For several hours.
  4. ORH_wxman
    18z eps actually had a handful of members now hanging back again when 12z virtually had none. So that’s a good sign too that some of these are capturing a bit aloft. Even if you don’t fully capture it back, even prolonging the good stuff 3-4 hours makes a good bit of difference.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Not at that point there isn’t. But I do like seeing that CCB type sig on the precip shield…even just a little bit more beefed, that would be a fantastic solution for almost all of SNE.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Actually that’s a bit better than I thought at 90. Might be another 2-4 in that depiction.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Yeah there would be a bit more after that panel. Prob not a lot but maybe another inch or two.
  8. ORH_wxman
    18z Euro bumped back north some. Really good hit for CT
  9. ORH_wxman
    If we lost the high, the storm would just cut. Not happening since there’s a block in place. But some small erosion of the high might matter for like coastal areas in SE MA
  10. ORH_wxman
    Icon was a bit more amped.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that was really amped. But NAM at 84…lol.
  12. ORH_wxman
    I still think 15” is possible. I wouldn’t forecast it but it’s foolish to automatically rule it out. All it takes a strong WCB thump of 8-10” and then limp to another 5-6” with a pseudo-CCB/IVT over 12 hours. Again, I think that’s becoming less likely, but it isn’t outside the envelope of realistic solutions.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the final numbers will make your call look even better.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the 12-18” runs were on several cycles and models. Only that one crazy run with like 30 inches was on the euro about 6 days out.
  15. ORH_wxman
    They running the 18z NAM off the Trash 80 today?
  16. ORH_wxman
    Yeah EPS is honking a bit on 3/4. Pretty decent look.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Pretty much same axis of heaviest though toned down some on 12z.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I’m not super dismayed about it at the moment. If we keep ticking it south then it will be a concern. But honestly, we were getting a lot of north shifts yesterday so seeing a southerly solution isn’t the worst…especially when the shortwave is still pretty vigorous.
  19. ORH_wxman
    The interesting part was the euro maintained a decent looking shortwave. When I frost saw the posts, I was half expecting it to be really sheared. But it mostly was just shunted south a bit rather than getting shredded.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Good crosshair sig there at 90 and 93…I’d feel ok going 6-10/8-12. I wouldn’t go 10-15 though given the relatively short duration of the good stuff.
  21. ORH_wxman
    What does 90 and 93 hours look like? The 6 hourly QPF between 96 and 102 is like a tenth of an inch anyway.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Fwiw i moved the latest posts on the march threats to the march thread.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that makes more sense based on QPF. I think some were using the “snow depth change” maps which can be low…esp in any event that may have decent snow growth and below freezing temps.
  24. ORH_wxman
    It was basically one run. We’ve had several runs of 12-18” type snows though from both euro and gfs but that was when there was still a bit more trailing shortwave interaction.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Icon was over an inch of QPF for much of SNE. Looked better than 3-6
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