ORH_wxman

I was shocked to see Logan airport at 18F at 2pm in late February. Esp in a winter like this. Actual real cold airmass.

Actually looks like a nice weenie band near @radarman’s hood down into windham county CT

Euro did make a nice jump north for 3/4. Still whiffs us but not by much. A GFS/Euro compromise would be pretty sweet.

Ugh. That’s brutal. Only consolation is id rather need a shift north than one south right now…but that is ugly. Just gets ground up.

Ukie is definitely not going to get it done for us easterners. Good run for CT though.

I was fine with most guidance this morning minus the Canadian twins. We’ll see what ukie and euro do.

GFS had a nice weenie band sig up near the pike to the NH border region.

I mean, look at the 12/23/97 shortwave…it really wasn’t that impressive. But it had a nice neg tilt and held together just enough to pull that moisture in. We’re still not sure what caused the 6-8” per hour rates in that. Really bizarre.

Just keep ticking that shortwave a little stronger and I think it would pay dividends.

NAM def better looking. Not totally surprising though as it was the most paltry at 00z and 06z. So it wa a probably going to trend toward others.

Shortwave looks a little more vigorous on the NAM through 48. The block though also looks like it is holding a bit tougher too so not sure if we’ll see much trend here.

I think their record low is 8.2” for a season so they are in epic territory. This system is starting to look pretty decent for them though.

Sequoia gets pretty high though. There’s also lower parts of the park but like several of the main parts of the park (like general Sherman tree) are around 7k. There was this little town one time I passed through called Coalfax just east of Sacramento in the Sierra foothills. I think the elevation was around 2,000 feet. That’s the type of town that is probably getting crushed in this.

There’s competing forces going on. The SE ridges always make me leery of northward shifts. However, with the block in place opposing the SE ridge, we run a risk of a weaker shortwave getting sheared/shredded in the meat grinder between those two. So I’m kind of expecting a shift north, but worried that it may come with a weaker system smeared out into like a 3-6” type event. That’s why I’m rooting for the stronger shortwave ejection on these next few cycles. If we can get it a touch stronger, it’s going to produce some really nice fronto bands with that geopotential gradient in place.

There’s still some upside to this one too. Get that weenie E-W band going and there could be some nice surprises. But we don’t want this shortwave coming in any weaker that’s for sure. Would feel a lot better about ticking this a little more potent at 12z.

Euro looked pretty good for CT. Maybe even up to the pike with a bit of ML banding…but I’m def gonna want to see a stronger shortwave ejecting on the 12z runs today.

Really sneaky cold shot..esp up there in NNE.

Just catching up on overnight…Euro was pretty meh and that’s a concern. GFS still looks pretty solid, 06z NAM was still garbage. Looks like RGEM bumped north and Icon was pretty much status quo.

I don’t hate this being a touch south right now with the stout SE ridge. I’m a little worried about a weaker shortwave, but these often come in more potent as we get closer.

The shortwave ejected a bit weaker this run which I think is the main culprit. I didn’t see a huge difference in the block this run.

GFS looks like it’s going to be south of 18z too. Def a south trend so far tonight.

I didn’t really see much change at all..maybe the 1” area shrunk just a smidge

You had a good amount of ice too. Usually that would cause a decent number of outages. The wind factor probably helped with the damage further east.

More snow tomorrow than 2/28?

I was skeptical of that much ice where he was but things worked out almost perfectly…he managed to stay around 30-31 prior to the cold tuck the next day and the precip wasn’t very heavy during the whole thing which helps increase accretion efficiency. When you are getting heavier precip, a lot of it runs off and doesn’t freeze, but lighter precip freezes much easier. In addition, we had that excellent ageostrophic drain going on…even if he wasn’t getting into the arctic cold tuck yet, there was enough supply of lower dewpoints feeding into his area to offset latent warming (caused by the water freezing on contact). Finally, to maximize damage, there was strong winds with the frontal passage with the ice still loaded on trees and power lines. Nasty combo.