ORH_wxman

@CoastalWx and @40/70 Benchmark, 50mb split complete by D5 now. Looks like a lock. Wonder if we can prolong the blocking longer than weeklies think due to this.

It did bump north...still on the southern envelope but not as egregious as 12z. Synoptically, it actually has a really nice midlevel look from about the pike up into NH border region even though its not totally reflected on QPF.

Looks like NAM will come north at least some on this run based on 48h....not that it's worth much yet.

1.1" of complete garbage in Holliston....started like dry cement....now its like half frozen wet cement. Temp has actually creeped up to 30.5F here. But might get a little cold tuck here in the next 3-5 hours. Closer to BOS might have to really watch for little mini-flash freeze. The HRRR shows it really well sloshing that Merrimack valley air in the low 20s back SSE.

Early Feb 1994 and late Feb/early Mar 1960 are similar. The latter had a monster KU at the end of the pattern. I would say the pattern next week is most similar to 1994 with the SE ridge flexing, but it morphs more like 1960 in the week after that as the NAO/AO block really imposes its will.

This was the EPS mean 24h QPF for this weekend....not a giant system, but that would be very solid...likely low end warning for much of the area in SNE.

It's definitely one of the most favorable patterns since 2015 (not that the bar has been set very high since that winter...maybe Mar 2018 would contend too)....but it's not really like 2015 itself. Different type of favorable pattern. 2015 was almost purely Pacific driven....it did have an occasional weak block in the Atlantic, but overall it was positive NAO. This is going to be a -NAO linking up with a -EPO ridge with a negative PNA and forming basically a north pole block.

Agreed....EPS mean still has around 0,75" QPF all snow for BOS...def a little more amped than the OP run. Still wouldn't be surprised at a tick north inside of 48 hours given the vort track....assuming it doesn't severely attenuate, but there's not been a sign of that happening on guidance.

OP Euro has threats every 3 days or so out to the end of the run. Not really a surprise given the pattern funneling everything toward us, but good to see it consistently showing up almost every run.

He was prob comparing to 06z EPS which was def south of 00z.

Ptype prob a bigger worry in the tristate area with vort tracking through BUF/ALB. It's prob good this is a touch south right now because I could see some north ticks here in the next day or two.

CT is prob the jackpot this run. But pike region looks very good too.

GGEM is ridiculous for next week in SNE. Solid moderate hit for Tuesday and then a major hit for Thursday.

Fast flow. You don’t get lingering storms…on the coast it might prolong a bit with the 925-850 flow trying to enhance things and almost an IVT look as it departs. But otherwise it’s a quick hitter. Best chance for prolonged snow is maybe we can get some prolonged overrunning next week for a time. But often it ends up focusing into a narrower window.

It’s almost very fine pixie dust here rather than your classic loud pingers. Stuff out there is like dry cement consistency.

Finally some good snow growth in this band but we'll prob lose it in a few min according to radar.

The only risk of a southward whiff would be if we saw this rapidly attenuate....but that doesn't appear to be the case on this event unlike today's.

This is some of the worst snow growth...maybe about 3/4" of very dense snow. Can't imagine we have better than 8 to 1 despite very cold temps.

You're not whiffing with a vort tracking over our fannies...what is going on in here?

They started cancelling a lot more the night before after the Dec 2007 traffic nightmare storm.

Regional view shows the best and most organized slug of precip going for CNE

Radar has been mostly putrid so far but it looks like it’s trying to get a little more organized. Snow growth here has been mostly terrible outside of about a 15 minute band earlier where we had a mix of baking powder and dendrites.

Steep lapse rates can greatly enhance lift via instability but it’s not the cause of it. The cause of the lift in this storm is warm air advection (isentropic lift)…warm air is being pushed into colder/denser air and causing it to rise over the top of it. If that saturated warmer air is forced to rise through a thick level of DGZ, then the snow growth is likely to be better than if it was a very thin layer of DGZ. In addition, a thin DGZ doesn’t have to be because of steep lapse rates, it can be due to an elevated warm layer too. Now you have the opposite of steep lapse rates.

My kids have no school. They totally could’ve gone today. But whatever. Steady light snow here. Hoping to grab 2-3”.

Sleet line is extreme SW CT right now