ORH_wxman

GFS actually looks stronger with the confluence through 36h than 06z did. We'll see if that holds.

We'll see what the real models do soon. JV hour basically was a wash.

Actually looked a lot like the GFS that run.

Icon actually ticked colder.

Almost no change though...it was like a 10 mile shift....nothing like the NAM. Hopefully NAM is off its rocker.

Yeah initially the S/w was weaker which kept downstream heights lower, but then it drifted north at a further west latitude than the prior run after about 57 hours...and that's the key. Those further west solutions just don't give us the good front end thump. Sent the goods into upstate NY again.

Eh, now it looks warmer at 63 hours...lol

It's coming in colder anyway despite the slightly weaker confluence because of the other two factors I mentioned....weaker shortwave and less WC troughing pushing up heights downstream.

Confluence looks just a tick weaker on the NAM through 48h, but the main shortwave is also weaker and the western trough is shallower, so not sure how this one will play out.

I'm not all that comfortable yet along the pike....I'd prob want to see one more shift S by at least the non-GFS guidance. I'm always nervous about little north ticks inside 48. The one factor that may help in this is the block is in the process of retrograding/strengthening, so I do like that mode of change occurring which was also present in yesterday's event which helped shove it into a CT special. That event never really came back north...it sort of tried to at the last second but only did so marginally.

EPS is honking....GEFS coming around, but a little less robust on the signal. GEFS is also more like 3/13ish rather than 3/11 on the EPS Anyways. here's the EPS....quite a signal for 10 days out.

It's because the GFS isn't really showing a SWFE...it's almost morphed into a Miller B with closed mid-level circulations going south of us.

06z EPS made a nice little tick south too.

06z euro a little colder again. Baby steps.

GFS solution is getting close to a Miller B. Getting closed circulations in the midlevels

Yep. Nice bent back WF too on the front end there. That’s the kind of look you want. It’ll rip just north of it.

GFS looks like it may come in colder than 18z

That was another cold look.

Yeah. It’s amazing how often they’ll actually have bare ground while places way south of them have deep pack. They do get damned cold though when they radiate up there in those valleys.

Yeah it’s nice to see the northward nudges stop. No argument there. Hopefully it can actually be sustained. Need to keep that shortwave from gaining so much latitude in the MS River valley. Swing it through the Ohio river basin instead and we’d do quite well even if we flipped to sleet. You’d get a ferocious front ender first. I mentioned this before, but when it gains all that latitude further west, the best WCB forcing goes up the St Lawrence valley

Yeah didn’t trend like the other 18z runs. Just a very small amount…onto 00z.

St Johnsbury weenies jumping into the CT river that run.

I’m southwest of that near the ORH county line where middlesex county has that winding border E of ORH. Ironically that 68” is really close to Ray’s old stomping grounds in Wilmington.

Can always adjust upward when we get closer.

Snow is sticking on pavement again here. But it’s almost over.