ORH_wxman

Yeah. It’s amazing how often they’ll actually have bare ground while places way south of them have deep pack. They do get damned cold though when they radiate up there in those valleys.

Yeah it’s nice to see the northward nudges stop. No argument there. Hopefully it can actually be sustained. Need to keep that shortwave from gaining so much latitude in the MS River valley. Swing it through the Ohio river basin instead and we’d do quite well even if we flipped to sleet. You’d get a ferocious front ender first. I mentioned this before, but when it gains all that latitude further west, the best WCB forcing goes up the St Lawrence valley

Yeah didn’t trend like the other 18z runs. Just a very small amount…onto 00z.

St Johnsbury weenies jumping into the CT river that run.

I’m southwest of that near the ORH county line where middlesex county has that winding border E of ORH. Ironically that 68” is really close to Ray’s old stomping grounds in Wilmington.

Can always adjust upward when we get closer.

Snow is sticking on pavement again here. But it’s almost over.

ICON also toned down too....the 3 JV models that went amped at 12z all went more subdued at 18z...we'll see if the globals follow suit or if they are just converging on eachother.

RGEM went the same way. Hopefully we can tick this just enough for a solid front-ender.

Lol yeah. I’m not expecting a repeat, but it’s a loaded pattern for sure. Let’s get it out of fantasy range though. I have no doubt the blocking happens, but that trough ejection is key to actually cashing in on it.

That pattern is very reminiscent of the March 2-3, 1960 pattern in the Kocin book.

Agreed...I'm not impressed by the forcing at all on a Euro solution....best WCB stuff gets shoved up into upstate NY like over near MSS through YUL (Montreal). Any snow is better than no snow, but that type of solution looks pretty weak sauce overall. If things can get pushed just a shade east, I'd like the overall forcing look better for New England.

Good flakes here again with intensity picking up....but temp is a bit over 33F. Not gonna do much unless it picks up even more.

Not that much QPF when you have the best mechanics west of you....it tries to get crunched under us, but you have exhausted the best WCB forcing by then. So even the areas that sya mostly snow would struggle to get to warning criteria.

Euro is def siding with those mesos from earlier this morning.

33F and light snow...trying to pick back up now though. Gonna need rates like we had in mid-morning to overcome the peak sun angle and sfc temps.

Yes....night time event....Mar 21-22, 2013. Someone in the heart of that norlun got like 12" and it all fell in about 5 hours.

Most our IVTs are pretty mundane 1-3" type deals....we occasionally get a good one, though they've been kind of sparse in recent years after we got a decent number of them in the 2007-2014 period (2/22/07, 12/20/07, 12/20/08, 2/24/13, 1/18/14 all come to mind)

GGEM is pretty similar to GFS....might be a smidge colder...really doesn't get the pellets north of the pike. But it does the same exact larger scale behavior of shunting this almost due east.

Picked up almost an additional inch since those better echoes hit a bit over an hour ago....but there is definitely all sorts of dependencies....pavement just getting slushy accum and even the shoveled area of the deck with it's darker wood only picked up about half an inch additional. Im sure elevation matters too...at bottom of hill it prob didn't stick quite as easily. Intensity coming down now as the best echoes slowly sink ESE. We'll see if they can re-blossom here in the next couple hours.

Scooter streak north of CAR....NAO trying to push that south a bit.

Yeah it does the Tip crunch eastward....there is no doubt the confluence is stornger than it was a couple days ago but it's battling the further west shortwave....so it comes up west and then hits the brick wall and goes east....but where that happens matters a lot for us in terms of sensible wx.

Yeah I'm waiting until the later guidance comes out to start thinking this one is cooked as a major event here....but we definitely don't want that shortwave ripping up that far west....even though it will move east eventually with the block, our margin at this latitude is pretty narrow as it is so even a slight latitude gain on it's eastward shunt is no good here. Prob totally fine for NNE. But we'll see what he globals say....they are certainly going to be more skillful at this range than the nested mesos.

The trend so far on 12z for the JV models (NAM/RGEM/ICON) is to wrap the main shortwave up so far west, that it doesn't really help that the confluence is coming in stronger.....we don't get the good WCB precip burst.

NAM has really strong confluence, but the main shortwave is so far west we wouldn't get the nice WCB thump....that would be out in the Great Lakes.