ORH_wxman

Yeah you will need real rates on the thump part. Putting 0.05 in the bucket isn't gonna get it done on that. But if we're able to slam in 30-40 microbars and be crushing 0.20" in the bucket every hour, then the sfc temps will be mostly irrelevant...everyone will latently cool to like like 32.

It's the northern outlier right now and it was wrong on 2/23 when it was the northern outlier. While I may lean toward the NAM, taking it verbatim probably isn't a wise move when it's the further north.

CCB looks like it's ticking SW at least

Can we lock in the 12z HRRR?

Yeah this has happened on most guidance which is what helps the secondary ML center form…it’s why even the most amped solutions previously are now showing the CCB forming…now where that sets up is the difference between a nuisance event and a legit solid warning snowfall. Im pretty skeptical near the pike at the moment, but I’d feel pretty good up by NH border.

I was looking at H5 when I was making the comparison. One reason I was scratching my head initially because euro was driving the ULL like into Chicago a couple days ago, lol. Im leaning euro/NAM from this point forward though. But if I’m wrong by only a little, then that’s a big sensible wx difference for MA.

The starting points matter. If your starting on Feb 28th 12z (so like 90-96 hours out), that’s when the euro was driving the ULL almost into Chicago. It’s come well southeast since then. But if we start at 12z yesterday, then the compromise of a lot more 50/50…maybe even slightly in favor of euro.

These discussions are kind of pointless anyway with still 36-42 hours to go. I’ll say if we started from around 100 hours out, euro has caved more…if we start from 12z yesterday, it’s a lot more 50/50. Maybe it will be 60/40 e he o after 12z runs (starting from yesterday). From a larger scale discussion, euro isn’t dominating the medium range like it used to. It used to never lose to the GFS at day 4-5. Now it’s not weird at all if it does. It does seem to make its move more frequently inside 72 now.

Agree. Look at how bad the euro looks if you go back to Feb 28th runs. If we are only starting from like 12z yesterday, then there’s been a middle compromise but if you go back a little further, euro has def caved more.

There’s like 2 diff things to watch. Any leading vort max will help with front end thump…06z euro actually looked a touch worse on this part….then, the next part is where MLs try and close off…06z was def a little bit south of 00z on this part.

Eh not quite like the old days. It’s been moving toward GFS more than the reverse.

06z euro def just came a tick south. CCB looks really good for E MA north of pike.

I’m leaning toward the current the euro/NAM too right now. I need to see a another solid tick toward GFS today to convince me otherwise. They’ve def come south since earlier yesterday, but in my area, I really need the GFS to win that battle by 70/30 or 80/20. 50/50 won’t really cut it here if I’m looking for warning snows.

Ugh so you might be watching from Atlanta? Hopefully you can hop an earlier flight.

Yeah look at the flow in midlevels and you’ll see it’s more easterly even if temps are similar. That’s a good thing for increasing thump and of course trying to get a CCB going. Still need a little more south for the CCB goods which is why I’m skeptical on them but a stronger thump on the front end seems within reach.

Anyways, time to raid the edibles @RUNNAWAYICEBERG so I don’t convince myself to stay up for the euro. Gotta save that for tomorrow night if we are still tracking higher potential.

One thing most guidance had tonight regardless of whether they trended north or south was a better thump on the front. A little extra vorticity getting pushed out east of the main ULL back in the Midwest.

Nice move on the Ukie toward GFS. Not all the way but a good step.

Funny thing was RGEM was quite a bit colder than 12z. Usually GGEM follows the little cousin’s trend.

I was being hyperbolic but the end result was very similar outside of an extremely narrow zone. It’s basically well inside the margin of error on a 54-60 hour prog. Regardless, it doesn’t matter. Many runs to go.

Yeah agreed.

I always love the systems where we sweat like 8 mile shifts.

Yeah and I don’t trust it to make that track so I want to see this a little further south off to the west as we get closer to feel good about it.

Need to see more guidance on board. I’d start feeling pretty good though up by Ray’s hood over to S NH and N ORH County.

Yeah it may have ended up north of 18z by Saturday, but the way it gets there is important. There was a stronger vort lobe sticking east so we got a really good thump…and the CCB was very strong again this run.