ORH_wxman

Known cold bias on that model.

I’m prob going 3-5” here. Thump has been looking a little better but doubt we get much more beyond that and I’m giving most of the 10 to 1 guidance on the thump a 20-30% haircut.

It’s def because of that. You see the sleet line jump like 60-75 miles in one hour, lol. It’s prob when the DGZ starts to dry out a bit but in reality that will still be snow assuming it is correct thermally.

I def wouldn’t be forecasting much accumulation after the initial thump. If mesos start honking today, maybe we consider it, but I’m going to assume QPF is way overdone in the CCB portion of the system. I might feel ok about it in parts of far S ME or something.

Yea it did. Front end looked a touched better too though very similar. Im still assuming the CCB is mostly a fraud. It will only matter if it’s truly heavy stuff.

Looked a little better to me.

Yeah the vort and dynamics in this one aren’t even close to that ‘05 storm. I’m actually expecting any CCB in this one mostly to be offshore or maybe far northeast areas.

Probably. I still have coverage in my yard but a lot of sun torched areas got melted out.

Nice to see 06z guidance cool a touch. Hoping that we can pull a nice front ender here.

Yeah I’ll be intrigued if euro tries to go CCB…but for now I’m treating it as a GFS mirage. I think it likely mostly slides offshore to our northeast (maybe sideswiped by it in northeast areas into coastal Maine)….but the front end stuff I think is where we could potentially find improvements between now and go time…if only because of the non-hostile layout to our north. Like I told scooter…it’s not amazing like a 12/16/07 setup but it’s enough that some cooler ticks on the front end (even if track doesn’t change much) are certainly possible.

Maybe a slight touch NW…but it actually has better front end snows into central CT than the 12z run did and it trimmed QPF on the northern fringe. Timing was slower too. I feel like outside of the NAM’s noticeable S tick, the rest of guidance so far has been mostly noise whether it went a smidge south (rgem/icon) or a hair north (gfs and GGEM)

I’m still not buying that CCB nonsense at the end. My hope is that we can keep ticking this front end thump better. It’s not 12/16/07 but we do have a high in a half-decent spot and downstream blocking, so maybe this is one of those systems we can tick a bit colder on the front end during the day tomorrow.

There were some spots in metro west that got 8-9 inches in 2 hours during the end of that. At the time, I knew it was an awesome storm, but I definitely appreciate those types of storms a lot more as I get older. Just awesome display of power from mother nature in that one in many different forms.

Looks like maybe a tiny tick north but certainly not a big move.

I wouldn’t call it a torch but lack of good source of low dews prob means you go to 34 and rain eventually. You may pelt for a decent while though first.

Maybe an inch or two and then sleet. Maybe a brief period of ZR before rain/dryslot.

GFS prob too far south. NAM way too amped. Somewhere in the middle with a 70/30 weighting toward GFS is prob what I’d forecast right now if I had to issue one.

Gonna need 00z to come back south or i’d place the O/U for eastern pike region at 3” with less right on the coast. NAM is tossed imho…but that doesn’t mean small north ticks aren’t real. I’m expecting them.

I’m thinking closer to 3-4” of kitchen sink crud for us. We’ve seen that a few times already this year. Just can’t buy an optimal look. Maybe we can get one last push south and finally catch a break but I’m skeptical. I feel like a bump north of more likely than south. At least it will cover the sun torched areas again which opened up today.

GFS did nudge a hair north with the ULL out in the Ohio valley. Then it went probably even more gangbusters over E MA later in the game than 12z did. But again, pretty minor trends....one of these models is gonna make a larger move at some point. Onto 00z. (well, Euro at 18z I guess....then 00z)

Icon didn’t really move at 18z. Might have actually been a tick colder than 12z but really just noise.

We really cannot get a consistent trend....it's been overall south the last couple of days, but each suite seems to go different than previously. Sometimes we get two in a row, but not 3. Seems like 18z the is north suite after the 12z south suite. Hopefully we can nudge it back at 00z. Wonder if there's diurnal effects here too with the convection.

Reggie came north too at 18z....it's not the NAM but big sensible wx change for those on the line.

The only thing that worries me with it is that even if it's like 10% right, then other guidance may tick a little worse...I would have liked to seen it go further south. However, it was doing exactly that (going south) early on in the run...so not sure what caused it to go gangbusters in the lakes.

I don't see how you can't toss it. It's not even close to other guidance. I'm not sure what it's doing when it gets closer to the lakes....but it was significantly less amped in the first 18 hours or so of that run and then it just goes crazy with the neg tilt and sets off a nuke near Detroit.