ORH_wxman

Heh…posted the new EPS at the same time you posted new GEFS…both pretty similar. Definitely an upside threat there (obviously we know the risks too)

18z EPS is definitely trended colder with faster redevelopment for Thursday

18z Euro looked a little thumpier for Thursday. I think that one still has some solid upside…obviously risks too as we know. But there’s some 12/16/07 possibilities there (maybe even something better if we can redevelop it quicker?)….good airmass ahead of it if the synoptics can do ok.

He still posts like it’s 2001 where it took a super computer to post images.

Yeah it usually takes a real big dog to close Logan. I’ve seen them stay open during some pretty decent storms. That said, there will be plenty of delays and some cancellations sprinkled in.

I think even a lot of the Cape might break 6"....guess it depends how pasty it gets in the 2nd half of the storm.

2/16 back to being a big snow hit on GFS....that one is prob gonna be all over the map for a bit.

Decent chance it’s at least delayed. The airport likely isn’t closing down though from this one.

I think if you started being pessimistic only in the last 3 years then your credibility would be almost totally intact. But let’s be real, you started it long before, lol. But correct on the rainers…much wider area for rainers to “verify” versus snowers or whiffs. I think it’s good to point out the risks but we should point out the upside too…when it’s there of course. This pattern does have considerable upside but there are plenty of risks. We’re playing right along the gradient and that is always inherently a high risk/high reward spot to be. The last 2.5 winters have had a lot of bad longwave patterns with also some bad breaks on top of it when we did get a favorable look. So yeah, it’s easy to assume we’re going to get the bad breaks again. We did get a lot of good breaks during our snow blitz years…these things do have a way of evening out over time. Hooefully we catch a couple good breaks this next week or two.

I like how the 850 closes off and deepens as it crosses the south coast. That how you get good weenie bands to the north of it. You’re also probably going to prolong some hang-back precip too early Sunday with the extra inflow.

Last storm was also quite a bit different in that even though the NAM was “right”, we’re talking like 1-1.5” vs 3” of snow. It wasn’t that big of a difference. In this one, it’s a little more of a gap. If the NAM comes up a couple tenths on QPF then the differences will be fairly small. So we’ll see what happens the next run or two.

The OP NAMs are really the only guidance not giving 6”+ for our zone of SNE (basically pike region)…think we good.

I don’t think this is bad reasoning at all by you here…the problem is you can’t really be the messenger for it because you burnt your credibility already by being the forum Debbie-downer even when things looked great in the past. So people will see you being a Debbie and just roll their eyes…”he’s at it again”. There are both positive and negative variables for next Thursday…the positive is we have a solid high anchored north of CAR as the storm approaches which may provide some resistance (esp as we get closer on modeling this tends to be the case). The negative is the track of the primary low…and the million dollar question is how fast do we get redevelopment.

Hey I’ve always pushed back when people claim big ice storms and the look isn’t there…but I’m pointing out that there was a bit of a look there with a high in Quebec and a mesolow oriented more NE to SW instead of the more typical ENE/WSW which produces a more in-situ icing…if you’re pointed more NE with a high in Quebec then you have active advection of lower dewpoints. But as mentioned, it was clown range so not worth going crazy at this time…but that’s what you’re looking for on future solutions if you are looking for prolonged icing.

It’s clown range but if you get closer-in and still see the orientation of that mesolow out near Cape Cod and BOS facing northeast like that instead of ENE…red flag for big icing in interior.

Yeah that high was in a very good climo position next weekend. Prob better climo position than Thursday. But Thursday could have some issues too after the initial snow…prob gonna be a lot of back and forth on guidance for those threats.

Might need to watch for siggy ice over interior next Thursday.

12-18 lollis to 24

Pretty solid event. 4-8 with maybe some higher lollis in any higher ratio banding

Euro looked a little juicier up in this area…but not a huge shift from 06z

There will be lighter synoptic snows well north due to the vort tracking through NY state and CNE.

Seems too light unless you are assuming guidance is wrong and this will trend a solid tick south in the next 24-36h

The Thursday system has a pretty good high anchored N of CAR so even if that tries to amp, I’d think decent front ender. The 00z OP euro was on the northwest edge of the ensemble envelope…it’s possible it’s correct but there’s plenty of huge hits in the ensemble suite. This type of pattern will produce the threat of some messier systems. Even during the barrage of 1994 we had two…MLK weekend storm was messy and the 1/28 storm was basically a full cutter.

Epic melt mere days prior to the 2015 snow blitz…shall history repeat itself a decade later?

Doubt NAM is correct anyway with that vort track.