ORH_wxman

If it goes pure northern stream, this ends up a Catskills to Adirondacks storm. The southern vort is the only thing that keeps this a bit east initially.

It will need to reverse by the 12z runs tomorrow...that's when the southern stream vort comes on shore. Northern stream became more dominant today when it came onshore, the hope is maybe southern stream can come in stronger by tomorrow. But I'm fairly pessimistic at the moment.

The southern stream is having less and less influence on most of these runs today which is the opposite of what we want to see....it's going to be congrats Catskills if we can't reverse that trend.

Reggie still looks like garbage....likely up the CT valley if extrapolated beyond 84.

Much slower with N stream than GFS though, which means we'd prob not tug it back NW completely until it's a lot further east than GFS was. So I think the NAM would be good for many....hard to say exactly, but it's clown range NAM, so kind of moot.

Yeah leaning against it for us for now....I think it starts to look pretty good around ORH though and points north and west. If we can converge more on an elbow track, then I'll get pretty bullish for us near 495 and back into interior NW RI and into NE CT.

Most of Stein’s viewing area is looking fairly warm for snow at the moment. ORH county which he did mention is the biggest exception. If EPS mean is close to reality though, then there would be quite a bit more snow inside of 495 than he’s implying.

Prob start trusting it more tonight if the trend doesn’t abate.

That OP run was west of like 90% of the members so I guess that’s good to see.

Been really steady with that elbow track.

No it’s happening closer to us and overwhelming the southern stream…we actually want it to start dropping down a little further west to let the southern stream pinwheel around…kind of delicate though because if you drop it too quickly far west, then it still rips everything into the interior. We need the Goldilocks scenario.

Lack of a good antecedent airmass makes a lot of these nuances matter too. If we had a fresh airmass in place, these little shifts in the northern stream or southern stream would be mostly noise and shifting the jackpots slightly, but it would still be widespread thumpage. I'll say the one good trend today was almost eveyr model gets the ULL under SNE now like Tip mentioned....the part I didn't like was how it got there...northern stream insert happening a bit quicker and further east which pulls that low NW too quick....we want the northenr stream to sort of allow that southern vort to rotate out to the east and establish the baroclinic zone more firmly before fully phasing in.

Slow down the northern stream is prob most important. Doesn't have to slow much....even just a smidge slower than that 12z Euro run would utterly croak most of SNE....as it is, even ORH county westward still did ok, but you can't trend it any more or even those areas will be mostly screwed. Having the southern stream be a little stronger when it takes the wide turn would help too....it would focus the baroclinicity further offshore.

Most of the snow that falls there is when the low is still south of MVY....it starts on a decent track but then gets yanked back really far NW.

If that trend doesn't reverse, we can close the books on most of SNE for this storm...Helderbergs/Catskills special when you have that type of track.

Northern stream is responsible for that violent tug west....it was a clear trend on this run despite the rest of the flow looking flatter. It actually ends up worse thna even 00z because of that for many.

Faster northern stream is a trend I don't like on this run regardless of the final outcome....it makes that primary more influential and something that gets tugged into CT more likely the more we see that trend.

Looks more amped than 06z at 72h but less than 00z....we'll see if that sticks. Don't like that the northern stream is starting to speed up though

Only out to 48h, but it looks like 06z so far which was less amped than 00z.

His technology is still in 1997, he doesn't know how to post pics on a forum yet.

Having potential beats a boring pattern for sure....it's just too bad we've not been able to get some good polar or arctic highs timed up with any of our threats. Yeah, its been a torch winter, but even within that background state, you will still run into a few solid highs out of shear dumb luck, but we haven't been able to do it. Can't remember tracking so many storms that had almost no good ageo flow tapping into a decent airmass....almost every single system this year is trying to overcome a putrid BL.

There's no empirical evidence March is cooling (or warming less fast) than the other winter months. In fact, November has been one of the colder months in the last decade during the cold season. January had no warming trend here for like 5-6 decades, so we're probably regressing to the mean a bit....aka, we were "due" for a stretch of putrid/warm Januarys. Tip and I have sometimes discussed that maybe there is a response on the extreme end of the spectrum for individual cold intrusions....more frequent snows in October and late April/early May than we've seen in the past, but they manifest themselves within the warmer climate background signal.

All the other models were trending toward euro until that Ukie run which is a model known to have large jumps. I mostly want to see the ensmebles today…goal posts really aren’t narrow enough for OP runs to be super useful yet.

The faster northern stream solutions are the super tucked ones....the slower ones (NAM/Euro/ICON) are the further east solutions.

Northern stream digging in too much and becoming dominant too quickly is what causes these super tucked solutions.