ORH_wxman

Having potential beats a boring pattern for sure....it's just too bad we've not been able to get some good polar or arctic highs timed up with any of our threats. Yeah, its been a torch winter, but even within that background state, you will still run into a few solid highs out of shear dumb luck, but we haven't been able to do it. Can't remember tracking so many storms that had almost no good ageo flow tapping into a decent airmass....almost every single system this year is trying to overcome a putrid BL.

There's no empirical evidence March is cooling (or warming less fast) than the other winter months. In fact, November has been one of the colder months in the last decade during the cold season. January had no warming trend here for like 5-6 decades, so we're probably regressing to the mean a bit....aka, we were "due" for a stretch of putrid/warm Januarys. Tip and I have sometimes discussed that maybe there is a response on the extreme end of the spectrum for individual cold intrusions....more frequent snows in October and late April/early May than we've seen in the past, but they manifest themselves within the warmer climate background signal.

All the other models were trending toward euro until that Ukie run which is a model known to have large jumps. I mostly want to see the ensmebles today…goal posts really aren’t narrow enough for OP runs to be super useful yet.

The faster northern stream solutions are the super tucked ones....the slower ones (NAM/Euro/ICON) are the further east solutions.

Northern stream digging in too much and becoming dominant too quickly is what causes these super tucked solutions.

Too far west even for you on that midlevel track.

No, its prob good there...my first look was on the low res meteocentre maps...the higher res pivotal shows this cutting into SNE in the midlevels.

Dual low actually...there's a tucked low near LI prior to it consolidating eastward, so the Ukie is def west of 00z. ML center runs into SNE.

Ukie looks over ACK.

This is really compact as it bombs, so I don't think a Cape track is game over for the 128 crowd...the R/S line collapses pretty far southeast toward the low as it gets near vertically stacked. You really just want to keep it east of buzzards bay.

PRob lower levels....GGEM is often a bit torchy near the sfc, so my guess is the internal snow algorithm is a little stingy outside the meat of that band.

Further east than I thought based on RGEM...that might destroy the interior.

GFS did slink a little SE with the forcing vs 06z....but it's definitely still in the western camp with the Canadian twins.

It's wider in the "x direction" as Tip put it earlier. So it shoves the system east a bit despite being more amplified in the polar direction.

Foxborough jack on the icon (Berkshires/NW CT and Catskills have a bit more but a chunk of that is from tonight/tomorrow over there)

That run still looks pretty good for midlevel goodies up there

Reggie still looks like ka-ka.....Icon coming in decently east of 06z through 78h

Old EE rule. Back in the day it was a good combo. Hopefully today we have less volatility on the model solutions....the EPS has been relatively steady though. I'd like to see the spread close a bit while maintaining that Cape track.

That was a great one for me. Getting 10" on Friday and then 24 hours later we're nuking another 16" (most of it fell in like 6 hours)

Actually a pretty close match to the 06z Euro at 90h when the run truncated.

Clown range NAM is looking a bit east of 06z with that southern stream running pretty far ahead. Northern stream is dropping into the OH Valley though so it would def rip back NNW at some point...

'97 also didnt have as much of a low appendage to the northwest...it had a minor one but it got absorbed pretty quickly when the storm bombed....that could happen in this one too, but again, that requires a max bombing out in a good location with the primary sinking a little further south....we don't want it holding on longer like on those GFS solutions overnight.

'97 had a perfect ULL track and max deepening location....it was a unicorn. There's a reason it is the top standard for late season snow events in eastern areas.

'97 had no airmass either, but the storm bombed out in the right spot to pull in a little bit of colder air that was lurking in Ontario/western Quebec (plus dynamical cooling too)....similar thing will need to happen in this one.

Bottom line is you're going to need huge rates in this one (thankfully it looks like that might happen) outside of the highest terrain. You also need a good track. Everything will have to go right to get a higher end storm or it could end up as a lot of lower end warning criteria or advisory criteria slop (with maybe some double digits in the hills/mountains).