ORH_wxman

I’m loving seeing those midlevels close off and get going south of us. That’s a bullish sign tonight.

Crushage. Details still TBD but that was a very good 00z suite. If we can repeat something similar at 12z, then I may start honking.

Correct. If the upper low wasn’t elongated when it goes south of us, it would tuck everything in closer and the flow in the MLs would be more SE and that’s going to be useless. The elongated low keeps that baroclinic zone further south (and east).

Yeah maybe…certainly close. Something like the NAM just a little further south would be pretty epic too. Essentially what you’re going for if we’re trying for the unicorn is to get that midlevel flow out of the east before it warms above 0C and at the same time we’re turning the lower levels more NE with a stall somewhere south of the islands. You need an entirely closed upper level going underneath LI elongated east-west.

Still quite a bit of heavy precip streaming north. Hopefully some of you can flip and grab a few inches of paste

Ukie came east a good bit…but not a surprise after 12z’s adventures into Tolland. Ukie is dumping like 4” of QPF on WaWa and berks…lol. Prob mostly snow.

You guys look at clown maps way too much. The GGEM was about as classic as it gets for a pretty widespread heavy snow impact. The H5 was awesome, the midlevels were awesome. I certainly wouldn’t trust the GGEM’s lowest level thermals…prob one of the worst models for that (long with Ukie)

Yeah. Might be a little less in SE areas as BL is pretty marginal for a long time. But from a higher view, the GGEM has all the right stuff for a widespread hit…closes off everything south of us and rips back some great fronto in the CCB.

That’s an epic GGEM solution. Closes off everything well south of SNE.

Nice large area of 2 feet for CT that run

Congrats buried bodies on the icon

That’s the first run it’s keeping the low east of GON…pretty snowy for interior.

Yeah not really buying it. More just entertaining fodder before the real models come out. It does highlight some of the model guidance uncertainty though. We keep getting different variations of this storm.

Eventually it would but it’s prob going to redevelop somewhere out east when that intense vortmax down in VA keeps pressing eastward. Dec ‘92 did that too…initially captured near Delmarva but then redeveloped east and pinwheeled up to a position south of MVY where it rotted for a bit before finally drifting off E or ESE.

It’s not snowing due east of the low…maybe northeast of the low but that is fairly normal as long as you are north of the midlevel warm front which is pretty clear in this run…

I mean, if we start capturing this off the coast of SE NJ, then all of the sudden the parallels become a bit more striking. When we’re flinging the low way east before capture, it wasn’t all that similar…but if you start capturing down there and driving the ULL into MD or VA, then you quickly have a different beast.

Lol NAM trying to pull a Dec ‘92 there…capturing the low way down south there.

Ray going Socrates on us. Very well said though.

It delays the capture…again, we need Goldilocks scenario…capture too early and it’s congrats Hunter Mountain, capture too late and it’s a non-event (or light event). It looks like it’s just about to get captured at 90 so that solution would probably slay on the next couple of panels.

Yeah that’s way east of 12z. Northern stream was a lot less aggressive there.

On all of the runs that were crushing my area around 495 (and other interior SNE folks east of the river), the southern stream was stronger so it was the focal point of baroclinicity even up at the 850 level. The trend today was decidedly weaker with that southern stream vort and the northern stream decided to slice in a bit quicker too…so it was forcing the baroclinic zone further NW, and we saw that with that shape of the sfc low too looking almost like an IVT extending into SE NY. Mid-levels responded too with a more SE flow look whereas those runs with the southern stream being stronger and making the wider turn, the midlevel flow was turning more out of the east quicker which of course shuts off the WAA faster.

Correct, it would still be a decent event for them but likely not a 2-3 foot juggernaut. It’ll be interesting to see if the southern stream comes back a bit stronger either tonight or tomorrows 12z runs. That will be key for most of us in SNE.

Why would you assume a minority of the members are correct. The number of inland lows actually reduced in subsequent runs (only to recently come back)

If it goes pure northern stream, this ends up a Catskills to Adirondacks storm. The southern vort is the only thing that keeps this a bit east initially.

It will need to reverse by the 12z runs tomorrow...that's when the southern stream vort comes on shore. Northern stream became more dominant today when it came onshore, the hope is maybe southern stream can come in stronger by tomorrow. But I'm fairly pessimistic at the moment.