ORH_wxman

It’s basically a cutter but with CAD/redevelopment so we never warm sector.

You don’t want the PV partially phasing with the main shortwave until very late in the game. Those more amped runs are trying to rotate the PV or PV lobes just far enough west to do a little partial phase and send this thing up to BUF…and the colder/snowier solutions delay that process or just flat out keep it from occurring.

Most of the inflow is out of the south until late. You should still do well though…pretty big thump incoming for most Euro had south shore in one of the higher QPF zones.

The old ETA had some epic coups back in the day but it also had some horrific busts too. I remember the night before the Feb 2006 storm a random 06z ETA/NAM run was basically a complete whiff. It was like a 6 hour forecast too. I think it scraped us with 1-3” and maybe hit the Cape and far SE areas. It had a few other clown solutions that were just as bad along the way. But I think we forget them sometimes. The only modeling tool that I legit think was better back then for snowstorms was prob the SREFs.

Not sure the QPF is gonna be there unless we trend that vort back east just a bit. It’s like half an inch of QPF (or even less on some guidance). But if we trend the vort back east a bit more, then we end up with a larger/snowier thump. The orientation of the high and redeveloping low isn’t ideal for prolonged big icing. There will def be some ZR but then we dryslot pretty quickly.

Trends today have been kind of lame for Thursday. It’s a cold look (esp at sfc) but the vort wrapping up further west means we get this quick shot of WAA precip and dryslot. Hopefully we trend that back east just a touch. Next weekend is still all over the place.

Depends on ratios. They aren’t getting over an inch of QPF but someone could fluff bomb their way to a foot if they get 0.6”-ish and near 20 to 1. Im expecting only a little better than 10 to 1 in pike region…early on with the initial WAA burst we might get some decent snow growth but then I think it’s going to turn into baking powder. Maybe we go 12 to 1 average or so.

Then you have the Canadian which is almost too far south…still good hit though.

It starts as snow in the single digits N of the pike.

Very cold in low levels. That 900-925 layer is frigid at the beginning despite SE flow in that layer.

Looks like a lot of sleet after a few inches of snow and then a dryslot on GFS. Want that main vort a little further east or have a little more embedded in the flow to our south if we want a bit higher impact. Otherwise it’s kind of a quick shot of 0.50 QPF and done.

Your area might do a little sneaky catch up tomorrow during the morning and perhaps even into midday.

Yeah it looks that way to me too. Maybe extreme SW CT in like the Greenwich/Stamford area has some legit taint during the heaviest stuff but I think northeast of there is good with snow during the heavy stuff.

It’s possible it could still turn into an inch or two pike south. Obviously I’d root for it but I think it’s mostly far southern areas that have a legit shot. We’ll see though. Still a couple of days to try and nudge it back north a bit.

Yeah honestly I think I can count on one hand how many times I’ve actually seen ZR/FZDZ here when the entire column is below freezing. It usually has to be warmer than like -3C or -4C and often the saturated zone is very narrow and low to the ground…like it dries out above 900-850 or so. Anytime I’m seeing ptype algorithms try to screw around with saturated columns up to 750 and -5C and -6C temps…tossed. Always ends up as just cruddy snow growth.

Yeah that would make a lot more sense. I try to forget that storm up here.

There will be plenty of meat from Thursday’s event whether you load the pack with dense SWFE snow or it’s a lot of sleet/ZR…either way, you’ll add some beef to the pack I think anyway. Meatiest snow in this event is prob south of pike.

2/1/21? 1/4/18? 3/7-8/18?

It does it all the time I’ve noticed when the DGZ dries out. Problem is they never seem to take into account salt nuclei which is obviously plentiful where we live on east and southeast flow in the lower midlevels.

Fake. Look at soundings.

Tuesday night looks mostly dead. Maybe south coast gets a little bit. That would have to trend north really quickly.

That run was from your basement…

I also think the HRRR’s ptype map is fake. Much of the sleet area is just the DGZ drying out but the column is still like -2 or -3 in the warm layer. It would just likely be worse snow growth.

Purple? Looks blue to me. Did you do purple punch puff the magic dragon tonight?

Sure but the colder it trends, more QPF would fall as snow. I think the 2/16 threat might synoptically be more favored for a larger impact icing threat. The high looks a bit further west in that one. But I do like where the 2/13 high is as the storm comes in. It’s like running the system into a brick wall and those can often produce huge front end thumps.