ORH_wxman

At the very least, it does look like a more prolonged period of BN temps starting after the 1/13 system.

The pressures are high so a lot of them won't show up either on that product...I think they have to be sub-1005. But the mean QPF isn't that impressive anyway...it gets maybe an inch or two back to I-95.

Actually a pretty good hit over SE areas. But for interior more like an advisory event. But even if we're not getting huge totals, even hitting on a few of these advisory threats would go a long ways toward helping us have an AN snow season.

Almost looks like 3/4/19-lite based on QPF distribution that run. But hell, while 6-10 would be nice, I'd take half that prior to the arctic cold behind it.

GFS is going to be a lot flatter for 1/15-16 this run.

Haven’t had a decent retention season since 2020-21…most of our good retention seasons come during weakish ENSO….a few exceptions like 2010-11 or 2007-08…tho even that year had quite a few thaws…they just quickly were followed by another snow event. That said, a nice retention stretch wouldn’t shock me this year. February has a shot at it if we can build a semi-permanent PNA ridge.

We still have pack but we’re currently around 50F so we’re going to lose more during the day today.

There's prob two windows in the next 10-12 days for good snow....first is 1/15-16 and the next is prob around 1/20-21.....then it looks like we relax the pattern a bit but I don't think that lasts long...we are already building up an aleutian low and western ridge by about 1/25....so it wouldn't surprise me if we're right back into the storm threats before the month closes out. But as mentioned earlier, if we're trying to get a solidly AN snow season, I think you really want to hit on one of the threats prior to 1/25. We cna obviously have a big February or last few days of January by extension, but you can't really afford to miss many threats at that point if you haven't already banked some.

This weekend doesn't really warm sector much...esp up there....you might get like a 6 hour warm sector and then we go much colder airmass. You may keep pack up there. We still have it here but I think we lose most of the rest of it today.

Yeah the EPS is kind of strung out and southeast of the OP....it's not showing a lot of inland bombs. Maybe just a few out of 50 members.

He’s never fully recovered the mental anguish of barely missing out on the December 2008 historic ice storm. He didn’t have a public meltdown but that one I think cut deeper than any of the public meltdowns like 2010 MLK had. I think he might have just sat quietly in his basement for an entire night after that one. But his time will come…we’re going to get another one at some point.

Flipped to pellets now. Prob grabbed around half an inch of paste.

Feb 28, 1995 was a big icestorm in SNE. But you’re correct they seem to be more front-loaded in December and early January (or November if we’re talking about the 1921 event).

Crushing fatties right now. Prob not for long but it’s accumulating now.

Ripping fatties now. Lift has temporarily washed out warm layer. Starting to stick

Started off as snow here mixed with a bit of sleet. Not typical pellets though…almost like rimed flakes

13th has front end snow too.

I think we need another good sized snowstorm in the Jan 15-25 period to go into February with a decent chance at an AN snow season. You can sometimes afford to whiff on a decent pattern and still do well overall for the season but that’s usually because you already weaseled a good storm or two in a garbage pattern…but we haven’t done that this winter since we punted December.

My grandparents had a chestnut tree in their backyard that didn’t succumb to blight until 1994…they had a large open backyard that was cut out of the woods….so I’m guessing the tree being isolated from the rest of the forest probably helped it last as long as it did. Worst thing was stepping on those damned things if you went too close to the tree in your bare feet. Once the spike coverings dried out they turned extremely sharp.

1/16 actually does look pretty interesting on most guidance. Inhibiting factor right now is lead time but Euro obviously has it, GFS was kind of a close graze at 12z and GGEM was a hit at 12z.

Yeah that's not right. Maybe he measured where the tide meets the sand?

If there’s a decent high to the northeast, usually NNE will do well on cutters and sometime SNE gets in on the act. It’s the cutters that have no highs that are destructive to snow pack and that’s what December 18th had and last winter was the year with no highs to our north, lol.

Flickering hope in SNE. It needs to trend better in the next day or so or it’s junk. It does look decent for NNE. They may actually build a decent pack over the next week since some of the spots are going to get a solid net gainer on 1/10 too even though it eventually flips. Both of those systems would have been nice if they were weak vort maxes but these are both on ‘roids so they are able to overcome some initial confluence.

Nice fatties falling now but doubt they’ll add much of anything. But good winter feel out there just now with the puffy flakes and snow draped on everything.

Possible but uphill battle. Need to tame that western trough and/or really compress the heights over SE Canada enough to turn it into a SWFE.