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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    I mean if this drops further west then it would be a pretty decent storm. Unlikely at this time but it’s been pretty volatile on guidance. But even some steady light stuff with that temp profile, it could add up to several fluffy inches.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Euro is kind of interesting for eastern areas next friday night/Saturday. Drops that ULL straight south and it’s really cold/unstable profile.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Yeah there’s prob some spots above 1000 feet that got close to 2”…esp a little further south near ORH and Paxton…wonder if Pickles ever went to Paxton.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Yeah maybe a few tenths more if you’re not on a dark surface. It was about an inch on the walk but prob 1.2-1.4 on the deck. Honestly was better than I expected on the thump before it started this morning…once it flipped I was hoping to get past 2” but the heavy stuff didn’t last long enough.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Pure paste
  6. ORH_wxman
    Doesn’t look like a big deal. Maybe another 1-3”…though if the NAM is more correct, some places in ORH county over to Ray’s area could see more than that.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I told most people the snow will shut off for a while this afternoon and into early evening and then prob resume late evening once the commahead of saturation collapses back SE. The WCB and CCB never linking up cleanly in this event definitely put a cap on the totals…even with marginal temps it would have been more prolific if you linked the two
  8. ORH_wxman
    Looks like about an inch of paste here so far. Still above freezing at 32.7
  9. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the road goes all the way to the top and there’s houses on it. Not a lot but there are at least a handful above the 1300 foot line.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Top of Asnebumskit hill in Paxton is over 1400 feet.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Go up 31 to Paxton. You could go up to Princeton too but you’d prob need to go to WaWa lodge to find food in that town.
  12. ORH_wxman
    You’re forgetting Theo’s and Paxton house of pizza.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Paxton is around 1200 feet downtown near 31/56/122 intersection. Prob one of the best spot for this storm. Paxton house of pizza used to have decent pizza and subs but haven’t tried it in eons.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Sticking to all surfaces. Hopefully can grab 2-3” with the thump, but we’ll see
  15. ORH_wxman
    Massive quarters falling here now. Temp slowly ticking down to 33F even now.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Yep. Not much thermal packing on this. Prob would wring out even more QPF.
  17. ORH_wxman
  18. ORH_wxman
    Was pelting for about 40 min but now big aggregates…still hearing a pinger or two bit transition almost complete.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I think we want to see some snow reports by 8-9am in N CT to be optimistic about at least advisory snows. I was looping the meso guidance and pound time really needs to happen there between 9am-1pm…so if you’re still struggling to snow once into that time range, it’s prob not happening for accumulations.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Not even sure it’s another MLK. I don’t think it looks that good up in MA either…I’d be surprised if anyone got more than 4-5” except maybe northern half of ORH county/southern monads and over to Berkshires.
  21. ORH_wxman
  22. ORH_wxman
    We’ll see if Kevin can flip in the next 1-2 hours. If not, that basically means nada for most of CT east of Litchfield county at least. Dual pol does look like snow north of Ginxy in N RI and extreme NE CT but hard to say if any of that is reaching the ground as snow or just melts prior to reaching sfc.
  23. ORH_wxman
    NAM keeps it going into Monday afternoon for a chunk of the area.
  24. ORH_wxman
    In this type of storm it really is. ORH county above 600-700 feet will be pretty easy. They will snow and amounts will be mostly determined by QPF. Lower down though is a disaster to try and forecast and it’s even worse down in CT where you have to consider midlevel temps being what they are.
  25. ORH_wxman
    I’m not that optimistic on the front end thump. Feel like best shot at accums is the CCB stuff even if it’s not heavy…it will at least have a colder column. Easier to accumulate at 32-33 when 925 is like -2 or -3 than isothermal. But it’s admittedly a real tough call because heavy rates will trump a lot of issues. The problem is you can’t guarantee heavy rates. Can we get 0.2” per hour QPF? Maybe. But there’s a huge difference between that and like 0.08-0.12 per hour.
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