ORH_wxman

Gives a colder solution too when you get that cold conveyor going earlier. The convective southern streamer chasing east prevents the conveyor from getting established earlier.

That more dominant northern stream is something we’d been trending away from but of course this event isn’t that easy…euro had to bring it back stronger this run. Keeps us on our toes at least.

Everyone’s nervous before the euro comes out. Even Wolfie.

You went from a euro-skeptic to a euro-truther in about 2 days.

This is excellent. Something MaineJayhawk would come up with.

No, but your area is still looking pretty good.

Yeah I have a hard time seeing how ORH gets less than a foot unless this thing unravels with a strong trend toward primary being dominant…which guidance has trended away from in the past 24-36 hours. Toughest area in MA is prob like Ray and your area near ASH down 495 and then towards 128 and interior SE MA. I feel reasonably confident at a big storm for the 495 crowd but there’s enough lingering doubt that we get a sloppy 3-6” instead of double digits that I want to see another model run. A good euro run would increase confidence because the euro has been pretty bullish and relatively consistent.

The Ukie has a pretty bad warm bias right at the sfc.

That is a great product….but those are only useful if the model is accurate. I wouldn’t trust the 51 hour NAM at this point. They’ll be better to use tomorrow when hopefully we have more model consensus.

Yeah highest terrain maybe. If we start seeing more NAM-esque soundings, then higher ratios become more likely. But we have a lot of solutions that are pretty warm in the BL still.

SREFs pretty much useless until like 24h out..which makes them useless overall these days. They used to be ok on winter storms when they had the ETA members included.

Yes maybe. That doesn’t change my point though. NAM was pretty cold but people should stop posting 10 to 1 unless we’re doing it with caveats.

Stop using 10 to 1 maps

No but it’s certainly a possible solution.

NAM is like classic KU with all the features for SNE.

For now we sell, but it’s silly to completely ignore. There’s enough guidance that shows exceptional rates and the dynamical support aloft. We’ll see today if more guidance trends toward that or toward more mundane.

Agree with what? Caution flags there? Yeah I would. Even here I still have caution flags…I think we’re looking pretty good for warning snows, but there’s a big difference between 6-8” and 18”. I think for places like ORH up to Hubbdave, it’s time to chuck ‘em, but south and east still have more questions to iron out.

Id prob weight the NAM like 10% right now. It gets more weight once we’re down to about 36h.

There’s potential in his hood for epic blizzard conditions. But there’s a lot of temp issues too to overcome there.

We had exceptional damage here in the Mar 7-8, 2018 storm which was like a foot of grease. So it’s definitely going to a problem with power issues if we get even 8-12”

When I looped h5 on the 06z euro, I def expected heavier QPF than what it showed. But it was a step down from 00z. It’s going to be a significant storm, but the difference between a HECS type blizzard and a fairly heavy late season snow event (but nothing earth shattering) is going to come down to if we have those truly exceptional rates for hours on end.

Yeah that was kind of weak sauce. I think there needed to be more southern stream. But who knows. It just didn’t want to pop that low to another level like most other guidance.

Can’t believe it’s been 3 decades since that storm.

Yeah there are some similarities aloft. But Feb 2013 had a monster high to the north and this one doesn’t.

Also going to get a death band as the fronto prob goes nuts while it’s moving NNW