ORH_wxman

I'd like to see just another half tick S and weaker with the IVT, and then I'd be very confident in widespread 8-12"

IF we can reduce that IVT just a shade more, I feel like we'll get a non-inear response to the snow in areas right on the edge....we're talking about 1C or so for many areas around 495 and down into N CT near Kevin.

That was a pounding for eastern areas from like midday through mid evening tomorrow.

RPM model....that was always a fun one.

16z RAP was the first run that trended a bit colder at 925....still warmer than most guidance given the trend of the past several runs...it will take several more colder trends to reverse the warmer ones from earlier this morning. But we'll see if it can cool a bit because that makes a huge difference over the elevated interior overnight tonight.

Hopefully it's playing into its overamped bias beyond 9 hours. But I've noticed the trend on every HRRR/RAP run is to be stronger with the IVT low and flood more and more BL warmth into SNE. That will quickly end any top end snowfall forecasts if that trend is real.

GFS gone wild tomorrow morning.

Stay in Gardiner MA. I think there's a super 8 right off Rt 2 there around 1200 feet

ORH nuke on Reggie

Lol, 3k NAM went insane over eastern areas tomorrow....I think there's a bit of chasing with that sfc low position....clearly the best dynamics are well southwest of it.

It was obvious early on that it was going to get its act together a bit earlier....which is what helps with all the conveyors maturing quicker and giving a monster CCB to a lot of SNE.

NAM is going to be more consolidated it looks like

HRRR retros the low back to ASH and brings pellets all the way back into central NH to the north of it.

That front end is cooling a bit on HRRR....crushes high terrain even down to Kevin

Euro has those dual lows extremely far apart. That will produce an outcome like that if that’s actually real.

I didn’t like the 3k as much…low escapes further east. It still goes to town verbatim, but synoptically I wish it was more like the 12k.

Low isn’t escaping east as much on 06z NAM so it really goes to town tomorrow. Full blown blizzard for eastern areas. Def gets further west much better too than the 00z run.

ORH obliterator on the Canadian.

Guidance is trending colder for the commahead/CCB over E MA on Tuesday. Esp the mesos…GFS not as much but it still slays anyway. But this becomes a bit different if we go 29-31F over the CP on Tuesday with 50mph winds. That would up the impact quite a bit.

That NAM solution is a blizzard for E MA. Temps fall into the upper 20s in the commahead with like 50 mph winds.

Hrrr is def less IVT. Consolidating quicker. Nice to see that trend from 18z reverse at least on one model.

Winter hill scorpion bowls. I might be camped out there on Tuesday.

He almost did Lancaster/Whitefield NH too and those are downslope hellscapes for snow weenies too (but they do get epic frigid in winter). Anyways, hoping for better trends at 00z with the CCB.

At some point that low chasing the convection is either going to happen or it isn’t. That little vort doesn’t want to get phased into the northern stream like we saw on many previous runs.

Man…gonna be a tough forecast. I think at some point a chunk of SNE is going to get a really strong deformation/fronto band just based on what we’re seeing in the mid and upper levels…it’s a really classic look…but what happens on either side of that makes a huge difference in whether this is a HECS type storm or merely a late season heavy snowfall that isn’t lighting up the record books. If we’re wasting too much of the front end on rain, then that makes a big difference. I think ORH county to Berkshires are looking pretty favorable for at least double digits (and someone prob sees 20+ in that zone). Elsewhere, much tougher forecast.