ORH_wxman

GGEM was pretty cold next week. In addition to the snow on Tuesday night’s event, had some sleet and ice over interior SNE on the 2nd event which was warmer on yesterday’s guidance. Then it goes like the GFS (or even a little colder) for the 3rd event around 1/28…mostly snow for that one.

If guidance is too weak and slow with MJO progression, then we’d prob be back in phase 7/8 by Feb 7-10…that would likely have some changes in the way guidance looks. It’s been too weak all year on models. There’s other factors at play but a robust MJO will def have influence. Weaker wave has less.

The ensembles are pretty bullish on something around 1/30 as well. There’s a very pronounced PNA ridge spike during that time which is prob why we’re seeing it show up this far out. Tip already mentioned this a day or two ago as a period of interest. Next week is all nuanced. We may get a nice burst on Tuesday or it could be a degree too warm aloft. Won’t know until we’re closer.

It was tongue-in-cheek. Weeklies have been abysmal. But certainly a decent period in February wouldn’t be that weird in El Niño. That end of month look is becoming more intriguing.

Don't worry, the weeklies save us 2nd half of February and into early March....they will be 100% correct too.

Phase 6/7 in February should be ok here...they are both torchy for Canada in El Nino, but they are near or BN here with a lot of low heights to our northeast, so maybe we can catch some events in our own corner while upper plains and central Canada are torching. But who knows....we seem to find bad versions of every pattern recently.....although next week trended better on the Euro...maybe we can actually grba an advisory snowfall out of that,

ORH has over 20" for the month to date....and obviously some points over the interior toward Ray and up into CNE have over 20" on the month as well. Coastline and SE MA and back to the south coast has def been screwed though. Today is a perfect example of missing on a very favorable longwave look. You have a ridge out west, you have a decaying NAO block over Hudson Bay, you have very cold air in place and low heights out to the 50/50 region....but we whiffed because the 50/50 low didn't separate enough from the PV lobe dropping into the midwest. If it had, you'd be talking a major snowstorm and the rhetoric in here would be totally different.

Yeah the snow is screeching to a halt about 10 miles SW of me. Prob won’t get anything here.

It’s like 34F rain. We stay N of the sfc boundary but the midlevels eventually warm too much.

The funny thing is I'll finish slightly AN for January snow if nothing else falls. December was an epic turd, but January hasn't been terrible. Hopefully we can cash in next week on a lucky SWFE. Early February also doesn't look bad, but the issue is the favorable pattern could be transient even if it does occur.

Giant GOA low in the extended is a classic Super Nino signal....we haven't had it all season, but if it sets up and stays there, then you can probably punt February if there's no blocking. That said, I have no confidence in any pattern staying put for long since it hasn't really done that all since Xmas.

No it's not safe to say that.

The SWFE signal is def growing on the ensembles too for next Tuesday night/Wednesday. If that doesn’t crap out in the next couple of cycles, it’s probably going to be a legit multi-hazard event.

We got spoiled for years with those highs in Quebec…those La Niña seasons where we were getting several warning events on SWFEs while south and west furnaced. Hopefully we can grab in next week because it’s even a while as you said. These aren’t some obscenely rare feature…they do happen semi-frequently, but it was like pulling teeth the last couple seasons to get one.

Yeah we haven’t had a winter (or even a weeks-long pattern) in a while where we kind of sit in a more favorable spot than the middle and western part of the country. We’ve frequently been the worst.

About time we do that anyway. Been enough seasons recently where it’s cold out in the plains and Rockies while we furnace.

Tomorrow is gonna be a Virga tease. SW CT looks the best for any accumulations.

Low level dry air is a major problem on the Friday setup. If we had less dry air, it prob wouldn’t be that hard to get a fluffy 2-5” event for a lot of the area but it’s gonna be tough to saturate. South coast looks the best right now for obvious reasons.

He won’t be using the 18z GFS OP run beyond 300h…that’s for sure. Maybe he will post the 00z run if it shows a torch pattern.

The SST argument is always really bizarre to me…esp in January. It has very little to do with the longwave pattern. It maybe cost the coastline a bit more snow in the 1/7 event but we’re talking on the margins. The SSTs offshore could’ve been 3C colder and December still would’ve been an abomination.

Yeah that was kind of funny. GFS is prob 1-2” pike region with maybe a little more south coast. Pretty similar to the BOX map. They might be a bit heavier on the cape than GFS.

Scooter is teetering like it’s early January 2013

Yeah we're not getting that mid-level WAA that we like to see for healthy lift. Notice how the 850 winds are still light out of the northwest. We'd like to see that turn more southerly. You can also see a bit of dry air there below about 700-750mb. Thats going to be an issue for sure in trying to get decent QPF into SNE. It's fighting that very dry air funneling down from the north

That was right near my 'hood on the NAM. You can see it's fighting some dry air though even in that sounding. IF the dry column can be overcome, there could be a pretty nice stripe of snowfall given the deep DGZ and cold sfc temps....very high ratios most likely unless the lift stays too high above the DGZ....but usually when the DGZ is that deep, you're getting pretty good growth regardless...as long as there's some half-decent omega in there.

Check out how deep this DGZ is on the 60 hour NAM sounding...that's the type of temp profile where you can get 6" on 0.25" of QPF if you can squeeze that much out of the atmosphere.