ORH_wxman

Pattern of yore on the Euro today....moderate coastal followed by arctic cold, then a clipper-esque system into that arctic airmass for 1/19

Yeah that's all fronto stuff....it's pretty strong though, so it squeezes out warning criteria in that band on both models. I think if we are able to sort of curl that vort in underneath it at the last second then we could get a psuedo-CCB feature to enhance the fronto stuff. Right now, the vort is a bit sheared, but if it stays a bit more consolidated, then it can have a little higher potential....however, we walk the happy medium....you don't want it too strong too early or you get some track issues.

Don't think the Euro is going to be as amped as 00z looking at the CONUS pattern at 108h.

Judge it against winter climo IMHO....that's how I do it. Sure, I'd love 80-100 days of continuous pack but that only happens like once every 1-2 decades here so trying to aim for that is going to cause a failing grade most winters.....realistically climo is going to be around 50-60 days here (and hopefully a stretch of 30 in a row at some point), prob closer to 70-80 in ORH hills and 30-40 along the coast near BOS and south shore (and less down near cape and south coast).

1960s were the coldest winter decade here in the past 110 years....you have to go back to the 1910s to find a colder decade of winters. Not gonna happen again any time soon.

No it was a friday storm. There was another super bowl storm in 2015 too. The 2/2/15 storm was the day after the SB. Started right after it ended actually IIRC.

No that was the Jan 2016 blizzard.....2/5/16 was a late NW-trending scraper that turned into a legit 8-14" snowfall across much of the region.

At the very least, it does look like a more prolonged period of BN temps starting after the 1/13 system.

The pressures are high so a lot of them won't show up either on that product...I think they have to be sub-1005. But the mean QPF isn't that impressive anyway...it gets maybe an inch or two back to I-95.

Actually a pretty good hit over SE areas. But for interior more like an advisory event. But even if we're not getting huge totals, even hitting on a few of these advisory threats would go a long ways toward helping us have an AN snow season.

Almost looks like 3/4/19-lite based on QPF distribution that run. But hell, while 6-10 would be nice, I'd take half that prior to the arctic cold behind it.

GFS is going to be a lot flatter for 1/15-16 this run.

Haven’t had a decent retention season since 2020-21…most of our good retention seasons come during weakish ENSO….a few exceptions like 2010-11 or 2007-08…tho even that year had quite a few thaws…they just quickly were followed by another snow event. That said, a nice retention stretch wouldn’t shock me this year. February has a shot at it if we can build a semi-permanent PNA ridge.

We still have pack but we’re currently around 50F so we’re going to lose more during the day today.

There's prob two windows in the next 10-12 days for good snow....first is 1/15-16 and the next is prob around 1/20-21.....then it looks like we relax the pattern a bit but I don't think that lasts long...we are already building up an aleutian low and western ridge by about 1/25....so it wouldn't surprise me if we're right back into the storm threats before the month closes out. But as mentioned earlier, if we're trying to get a solidly AN snow season, I think you really want to hit on one of the threats prior to 1/25. We cna obviously have a big February or last few days of January by extension, but you can't really afford to miss many threats at that point if you haven't already banked some.

This weekend doesn't really warm sector much...esp up there....you might get like a 6 hour warm sector and then we go much colder airmass. You may keep pack up there. We still have it here but I think we lose most of the rest of it today.

Yeah the EPS is kind of strung out and southeast of the OP....it's not showing a lot of inland bombs. Maybe just a few out of 50 members.

He’s never fully recovered the mental anguish of barely missing out on the December 2008 historic ice storm. He didn’t have a public meltdown but that one I think cut deeper than any of the public meltdowns like 2010 MLK had. I think he might have just sat quietly in his basement for an entire night after that one. But his time will come…we’re going to get another one at some point.

Flipped to pellets now. Prob grabbed around half an inch of paste.

Feb 28, 1995 was a big icestorm in SNE. But you’re correct they seem to be more front-loaded in December and early January (or November if we’re talking about the 1921 event).

Crushing fatties right now. Prob not for long but it’s accumulating now.

Ripping fatties now. Lift has temporarily washed out warm layer. Starting to stick

Started off as snow here mixed with a bit of sleet. Not typical pellets though…almost like rimed flakes

13th has front end snow too.

I think we need another good sized snowstorm in the Jan 15-25 period to go into February with a decent chance at an AN snow season. You can sometimes afford to whiff on a decent pattern and still do well overall for the season but that’s usually because you already weaseled a good storm or two in a garbage pattern…but we haven’t done that this winter since we punted December.