ORH_wxman

We will agree to disagree. I think you are conflating absolute model performance with relative model performance. Euro used to be way better than the others. But the others have closed the gap some so it doesn’t seem as trustworthy. I can provide you plenty of examples in the last 10 years where the euro had some hiccups…January 2015 blizzard for starters. Or January 2016 blizzard too. It was really late on Feb 5, 2016 as well. Its loss of prolific dominance is really the only striking feature I can identify in the euro now compared to 8-10 years ago. I don’t see it as being an actually worse model than back then.

I’m almost positive this is wrong. Models have gotten so much better than where we were 15 years ago. We remember the euro’s coups well because there were many, but it had plenty of times where it waffled a bit. I think it had the 12/19/08 storm as a Detroit cutter 5 days out until it quickly turned it into a snowy SWFE. I also recall it having some pretty huge solutions for interior SNE in December 2012 pre-Xmas about 4 days out that failed pretty horribly. We of course remember the Feb 2013 coup. The GFS imho is vastly improved so the relative difference between them has shrunk even though the euro has gotten better too. We were just so used to ignoring all the other models during large threats back then. Now we have to actually look at other guidance and consider it.

I'd really put the line more closer to day 5 when it really became more lethal against its competition....that's when the old Euro sniffed out some of the past big dogs like Jan 2011 and Feb 2013 or even Jan 2018. These 150-174 hour storms are going to be all over the place...and it's on all guidance too just not the Euro....GFS went from basically nothing to a deep layer easterly crush job yesterday at 12z to a mid-atlantic special in 3 consecutive runs....and now back to nothing again. Canadian had nothing mostly, and then all of the sudden today it decided it wanted to play. Some of the storms in recent years have been tracked from D7-8 which probably clouds our judgement on model skill. Dec 17, 2020 we tracked from like D9, lol...and I think a couple others we tracked from a long ways out....I know Feb 1-2, 2021 was at least 8 days and so was last January 29th.

Yeah I know it's not utterly dominant anymore, but this really isn't a good example....since day 6-7 is fringe clown range. Nobody should expect model guidance to be consistent at this range. It honestly wouldn't be that surprising if it came back either.

It was a day 6-7 threat....

If you want to see how my comparison looks at H5, it's pretty much what you'd expect....all that -PNA troughing trend combined with a mostly more positive NAO (even with this winter included in the composite) compared to 2000-2015

Yeah I was gonna respond, but glad I saw you responded first....I'd agree we've been kind of "due" for one of those prolonged colder stretches (even within the realm background warming)....but the snow hasn't been absent at all from SE MA on the whole over the last 8 seasons. But we gotta flush the general trend of of all the cold dumping into the plains and rockies before we return to more prolonged colder stretches in winter. Hopefully next year does that in an El Nino. You can see how the previous winters of the 21st century differed from the most recent 8 winters.....look where the max warming is (in the east) with little change or even cooling in the N plains to N Rockies and Northwest...with a lot of cooling in the NAO region.

There's like 3 vortmaxes in the flow....so guidance will prob need a little more time to figure them out. Ukie was pretty much nothing. Icon almost pulled a Canadian but not quite.

Yeah there's this pocket of lower gas prices I frequently see on the upper south shore there that sometimes extends inland a little SW toward Taunton.

Yeah Ray had a 30 burger in the Mar 2018 storm.

06z EPS looks pretty decent. Guess we'll see what 12z brings. Still not all that compelling yet until we get another 24-36 hours closer.

Yeah I was out on winter hill a couple days ago and there was still full coverage there but literally a mile away to the southeast had almost nothing except piles. There’s prob still full coverage just a few miles further into Holden today.

Yes, there were quite a few EPS members that were pretty big snows well south into SNE and a few even into the Mid-atlantic. Definitely worth keeping an eye on given the cross-model support and ensemble support....but I'll probably wait until Friday if it's still there before taking it seriously.

GFS type solution would not be....elevaiton still would play a big role, but it wouldn't be quite like last week's storm because it doesn't have that primary low appendage sticking in CT...so you'd see more widespread snowfall on that type of look. Elevations would still do better since the ratios would be better for them. But this is all theoretical since the storm is 6-7 days out.

A GFS-esque solution was much more threatening for SNE....had deep layer easterly flow and it was plenty cold enough just off the coast. Euro solution is close, but I'd perfer the ULL to track a bit further south....a BUF-MSV-BID H5 ULL track isn't exactly ideal for SNE unless the antecedent airmass is really strong, which is rare in a late season event like this.

Yeah that is LOL with that upper air look....I'd believe a burial for Monads to dendrite on that run....maybe into N ORH county and Berks, but not the rest of SNE....we'd prob get a couple inches of slop at the end in reality.....now shift that ULL a little further south (like even 75-100 miles) and we're talking a different ballgame.

Euro does try and go nuclear with CCB and dump some snow on SNE at the end of that storm, but I'd prob sell that type of look unless the ULL was a little further south. (which could still happen)

Its actually a rainstorm for SNE too mostly....maybe a little frozen in highest terrain. But it's close enough that it could end up snowier on a future solution.

Stop looking at rainstorms for NYC and make your fantasy baseball draft picks.

Nobody should ever not post snow pics....at least within their own subforum. If other people are triggered by it, they can log off.

N Maine looks primed for more crushage.

you prob average somewhere around 1 90F day there per year. I think ORH is around 2-3ish?

Hopefully we actually get something because we already know there’s going to be storms in this pattern

Might as well root for snow in this pattern....but as usual, this late you'll need a break or two outside of interior NNE or very elevated interior CNE/N SNE. But the pattern remains blocky right into early April, so we're not going to be getting much in the way of those early 70-75F intrusions.