ORH_wxman

Yeah we want to see that 50/50 get pinned a little further south for SNE this early in the season but certainly the look is there for interior NNE and perhaps some of the higher terrain in SNE. It could just end up as a NNE mountains deal too….but for 11/1 that is still semi-interesting. I think at this point, I’d rather see the trailing shortwave a little flatter and hope it amps up as we get closer rather than needing it to tone down. We are still fighting a bit of SE ridging too so there could be some compression issues (Tip’s favorite) as well. But at least there is something to pseudo-track….shake off the winter forecasting rust.

The synoptics are starting to line up for something. I’d favor NNE elevations of course this far out, but you have a shortwave amplifying into an already-established longwave trough with a 50/50 sig…the latter which will become very important for non-mountainous areas to see snow as that would help lock in a decent high to our north. Im not really going to get overly optimistic until we see another 36-48 hours of models parsing out the pattern, but we’re close enough around a week out to see the larger scale synoptic players taking hold beyond just clown range fodder.

What's the longest it took to get 3.4 over 2.0 on weekly numbers (I assume daily numbers are not archived very far back) and still get a 3-month average Super Nino on ONI tri-monthly? I suspect we're getting pretty late for it to still happen. From a monthly standpoint, it looks like 1972 took until November to get a monthly reading over 2.0 but October was +1.83 which is way higher than this October will be.

ORH is also still running a couple degrees warm. Its been unreliable for like 3 years now.

Lol

Yes I remember that very well....like that brings back to college circa fall of, say 2002 or 2000, and you're just waiting for the winter threats to start and eveyr so often, the GGEM would come out of nowhere in late October or November and try and give 3-4 feet of snow at 192 hours on a captured TC into a longwave trough supplying an unusually cold early season airmass.....lol.

The funny thing is you know it's happened at least once in the past few thousand years probably.

At least there's a decent Scooter high north of Maine.

Pretty good agreement on a cold Halloween evening now....GEM prior to 00z had previously been an outlier trying to show a warmer day, but they all look similar now. Hopefully we keep precip out until 11/1

Yeah probably....agreed on more copycats....but what caused that sentiment to increase so much in the past 25 years versus, say, 1980 or 1985 when we could go buy machine guns and go out like Arnold in Commando? Increased nihilism? Depression? Finding the root of that behavioral change or mental outlook is probably where a lot of the solutions arise.

There's been a large increase in mass shootings at the same time we've seen a steep decline in gun homicides....there's definitely something deeper going on. In 1985, you could buy an uzi relatively easily, but we didn't have people spraying Walmart customers every few months. I'm not a gun nut and have no problem banning an AR-15....but that would probably only be a small piece of the solution.

Prob 2010....that was cold and I think there might have been a few scattered flurries around.

2020 redux without the snow pack....this actually might be worse because at least 2020 was a relatively calm evening....but man, it radiated quickly with the fresh snow cover. 1988 comes to mind thinking of brutal trick or treating with cold and a bit of breeze....that's what might happen this time too. I was only 7 so we made it to like 20 houses max before the cold got too bad.

After you originally told me the story many eons ago, I told myself that if I ever found myself in the past, one of my priorities would be to go to LA and find you and convince you to be in Boston for that. All while not sounding like a lunatic.

Only 3 winters since 2008 (when snow depth records started there) have had fewer than 20 days of snow cover at the NWS BOX site....yes, last year was one of them.

Wonder if Kmart will go aggressive for an early to mid Nov opening....pattern doesn't look too bad after the cold shot either.

Brutal cold for Halloween though. 516 thicknesses and flirting with -10C at 850. Gross for the trick-or-treaters.

Yeah I get that some people love it. I def like it when there’s a snowpack…even if only a few inches. But that bare ground during it is just brutal to me. Reminded me of some of those late 80s cold shots.

Yeah maybe. I don’t personally find a lot of solace in getting an extra arctic outbreak. We had a near historical one this past winter but it was pretty shitty without a snow pack….reminded me of? 1980s.

You must have been in NJ for this T-day event:

The only positive I will say about the 80s, and this may be total bs and a clouded memory, but it seems like retention was better. Those frigid 85 and 89 periods could make a dusting last a week. Building a couple ramps on my sled hill, I could be going for three weeks on a couple inches. Retention was definitely better in the 1980s....it was colder. The problem was that there was often no snow to retain....lol....and when there was, it wasn't much.

Yes....if all anyone remembers is the good periods, then they aren't aware of the bad ones except maybe in theory or in the abstract. It's the same phenomenon growing up when we had to all listen to our parents wax poetic on how it always snowed all the time and there were no bad winters...."yeah no shit mom, you grew up during the one period in recorded history where there were 17 consecutive winters that didn't have below average snowfall".

2019-2020: 44.9 2020-2021: 77.7 2021-2022: 53.6 2022-2023: 47.2

Not around here they haven't been....the dryness is the ultimate killer over interior SNE for winter snowfall. For ORH, the 1984-1992 period had 4 (!!) winters below 40" including a low of 28.1" in 1988-89. In the past decade, they have had zero winters below 40" with a low of 44.9" in 2019-2020. Even a warmer spot like KBOS saw a much worse streak as well....1984-1992 for BOS had 5(!!!) winters below 30" with 3(!!) below 20". In the past decade, they've seen 3 winters below 30" with 2 of them below 20"....and you could probably write off one of those below 30" as fake since it was the year when they measured on Deer Island sewer plant and recorded 27.4" when everyone else had at least 35"+ around them. The only futility BOS excelled at in the most recent decade compared to the 1980s was the lowest season was slightly lower (12.4" last year vs 15.1" in '88-89)....but overall, that 1984-1992 period was a lot worse.

ORH's latest freeze on record occurred in 1977....I think most would take that winter again.