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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    12/6/09 and 12/2/75 are the two latest freezes at BOS....those are the only 2 that happened in December. 1968 happened on 11/30.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Technically not an El Nino but extremely close to one....2019-20 sucked after a pretty nice December. But of course, that season didn't remotely act like an El Nino....and it would be surprising if this one didn't given how much stronger it is.
  3. ORH_wxman
    EPS does have the synoptic signal for something setting up too...you can see the shortwave diving into the OH Valley while there's a 50/50 low and a Rockies ridge...pretty textbook actually. Just gotta get it closer than D10 and hopefully enough cold given it's early November .
  4. ORH_wxman
    Euro is intriguing for NNE for the 11/7-8 threat. Even flips SNE to snow after rain first....but that was one of the colder solutions in the past couple model cycles....still think something the following weekend in the 11/10-12 range would be a bit easier to get frozen out of (and clown range Euro does look interesting at the end of its run for that)
  5. ORH_wxman
    BDL was near 50" so you'd maybe a few inches less? 45-48ish?
  6. ORH_wxman
    He means snow.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Yeah UHI only matters for the raw numbers...not the departure from average....unless the UHI is a very new phenomenon as to not be fully factored into the 30 year normals (something like Dulles airport between 1980s and 2000s had a lot of increased land use change)....and we know Boston isn't a situation like that. The same exact thing is going on with ORH for 3 years now....they are consistently 1.5-2F higher on the departures than the other first order sites....confirming what MADIS shows
  8. ORH_wxman
    And the record will never be corrected.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Yeah anything that says TAN and PYM average the same amount of snow is not correct. PYM is prob a solid 6" less.
  10. ORH_wxman
    I'd put Taunton in the 42-45ish range long term. They've been more than that recently, but the last 25 years is not the normal no matter how much we all want it to be.
  11. ORH_wxman
    11/8 looks kind of warm to me, though enough cold lurking nearby that an ideal track may produce interior snows....but there's another window after that in the 11/10-12 timeframe which looks like it has a lot more cold available.
  12. ORH_wxman
    There's no way Lancaster only had 13" in 2013-14.....that must be from the 2012-13 season.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Looks pretty questionable the past few years...but might not be enough for them to flag it like ORH....if it stays within 2F of their calibration tools, they don't change it....an unnerving fact we all found out last year when discussing KORH.
  14. ORH_wxman
    I'm hoping La Nina hangover will lead to at least a couple decent periods in December.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Let’s get a nice 128-495 paster mid-December.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Torchy for December. Kind of neutral for Tday period though.
  17. ORH_wxman
    US domestic fertility is wayyy below replacement level right now (2.1 births per female is replacement level) . Same for most western countries.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Soundings have been looking better today for Wednesday....more moisture getting in here. I think there's a great chance for many to see first flakes.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Might be two shots next week (including next weekend)...that first wave around 11/7-8 which looks more marginal (shows up as a cutter on the GGEM) but then behind that there is a distinct amplification of the western ridge showing up on both OP and ensemble runs which could put another threat into the 11/10-12 timeframe.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Yes Xmas 2002 had the big Nor' Easter.
  21. ORH_wxman
    The day before Tday in 2002 was sort of a NJ model low....really popped quick and I think CT jackpotted with some 10"+ lollis on what was something like a 3-6/4-8 forecast. This is prob the storm Tip was thinking of in 1986: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1986/us1119.php
  22. ORH_wxman
    Split flow underneath a cold Canada and northern tier is showing up on a lot of medium/Long range guidance. Definitely some potential I think in that 11/8-11/12 window…the 11/1 threat looks just too compressed and SE to be able to make a late comeback, but I do like the chances of another model threat or two coming up, even if they don’t pan out.
  23. ORH_wxman
    I’m hoping we get some sort of mitigating factor to keep it somewhat cold for late November….because the first half looks really good for ski areas trying to ramp up snow making. But it’s fairly common to have a warmer late November and December in El Niños. But it’s not a hard and fast rule. If we can pop some Atlantic blocking, then something like that would help offset other warmer influences.
  24. ORH_wxman
    We could sneak in some above normal days between 11/3-11/5 but I agree the average of the first 10 days of November will def be below normal.
  25. ORH_wxman
    GFS had like 3 snow events on that run and Wednesday was a whiff too…lol. Weenie pattern. Ensembles do sort of agree on a chance for an event or two after the mild period 11/3-11/5 or so…we get the initial cold shot, then warm back up, but then go into another colder pattern for like a week into mid-month….then it looks like we warm back up after that as typical Nino climo kicks in for second half of November…but we’ll see.
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