ORH_wxman

Help with what? accumulations? Limiting factor is QPF, not cold. Maybe it helps marginally during light rates.

2/6 last Thursday might be the best match....a little colder maybe but similar paltry QPF and paltry dynamics....unless we get a bit more shift eastward.

Yes I think this prob the best way to snow this coming weekend....the PV trends in Canada have been very bad the last 24-36 hours....I suppose they could reverse but I'm growing more skeptical.

I’ve been so focused on the next few events I didn’t really look at any longer term stuff but I noticed big signal around 2/20 and then beyond that the EPS building a huge PNA ridge

Yeah if Thursday does decent and then we pound on the weekend, we’re well on our way to making the winter respectable…pretty much guaranteed rat if we go weak sauce thursday and then weekend is an ugly rainer. I looked at all those good runs even on the euro a few days ago and the PV was much more firmly anchored in SE Canada. We need to see that trend again. Not only does it keep this south but it also produces the confluence for a solid high. Notice how on these solutions where the PV is further west, we sneak a perfectly timed low pressure up the St Lawrence valley so there’s basically zero high…it splits it in half so you have one retreating to the Flemish cap and the other stuck out in western/central Canada. PV being west of James Bay is never good when you have a western trough moving east.

If you get a fairly robust partial phase this could def just slice through BUF and flood all of New England. I’m skeptical right now because the block is actually strengthening and pressing southward during this…but we’ll see. If we have a rainer on guidance still by Tuesday 12z, we’re likely cooked.

Much worse than 12z GEFS. Prob a lot more members pulling that partial PV phase to the west.

Yeah it’s going to flip flop a lot I think over the next 24-36 hours until we get more inside of D5-6. Note what the PV was doing that run…it wasn’t anchored in SE Canada and had some lobes rotating pretty far west helping the western shortwave partially phase and amplify rapidly.

That map is terrible too. No way the 495 belt is less than 50” per year. Not until you get down towards Mansfield/Norton. Not sure what the sub-50 is in SE NH too. My guess is Brattleboro is somewhere in the 60s for seasonal average in the valley there knowing what the averages are a bit further south in the CT river valley

Rgem and Icon look pretty thumpy at 18z for Thursday. But clown range for those models. Icon especially since it gets a secondary going a bit quicker. You want to see secondary reflection sooner to help with inflow and better dynamics. Otherwise it’s a 3-4 hour burst of WAA precip and dryslot.

I’m not sure any model supports 6” of snow for anywhere in New England for Thursday. Maybe the Canadian was marginal for that since it was a little juicier and further east than other guidance.

Not very coherent on the clustering ……looks more like Buck shot…but yeah, we’re still a week out.

That’s kind of late in the system. Back that up 2 frames. Huge spread on EPS. But the mean is like 7” for the pike region despite plenty of members looking like the OP run. But there’s also plenty of members that have huge hits well into double digits.

Here’s GFS. Look how much further southeast it is with PV in eastern Canada…fully east of Hudson’s bay

The key for next weekend aloft is for the PV to be pressed and stay ahead of the main shortwave coming out of the west.

Rain up to the chickens on euro but the primary did squash some that run…the other main difference is we had no high north of maine this time to spring a secondary reflection. It’s just one low that basically track over our heads. Still a higher end threat though. Wouldn’t take much to push that into a major snowstorm.

No eastward bump on euro. Primary actually goes west of CLE. Still quite cold but very paltry on precip.

Can’t see past 144 yet but Ukie looks pretty pressed for next weekend too.

This looks colder than last Thursday. Still not sold on much precip unless we can subtly continue nudging this east. GGEM and GFS did so at 12z…we’ll see if euro bites. But absent that shift east, it’s prob like a 1-3/2-4 type deal on the front end followed by some IP/ZR and then dryslot. Maybe up north gets a little more where they don’t flip to pellets.

That is Kevin’s dream storm. It’s like 42-48 hours straight of snow on GGEM over SNE next weekend. Goes from Saturday afternoon to Monday afternoon.

I think impact-wise it makes sense but it’s really hard to verify so the snowfall threshold is just easier to stick with.

WCB was pretty disappointing in this event. Looked like we had enough inflow to pound for 5-6 hours but it was really just about a 3 hour deal. I think at the end of the day, the synoptics really can be a guideline…it’s hard to hammer solid warning criteria for us when you have a vort going from Toronto through the chicken coops…we’re south of all of that…so you prob just get that initial surge like we saw down in NYC and LI and then it kind of runs out of deeper level support and weakens a bit when there’s a lack of PVA and the extra divergence aloft that comes with it. Hopefully we can grab some dynamics in these next couple systems. Weekend looks better but subtle shifts east today make Thursday slightly more interesting.

The GFS shows you how to do a big thump for next weekend. Get that midlevel warm front really defined and slow it down just south of us and you pound town for 6-8 hours. You’ll note the vort isn’t riding up through Lake Ontario and instead comes through the Ohio valley and swings toward northern midatlantic.

GFS really pressing confluence for next weekend this run. Looks like it’s gonna be a pretty cold system this run

Been a subtle shift east so far at 12z. That’s a trend we want to see if we want better dynamics. Still kind of meh on most guidance thus far but a little better than what we saw yesterday and last night Primary is a little southeast of that CLE to Toronto line now…more like BUF to ART. Nudge that a little more and maybe we can go thumpy thumpy on the front end.