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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    There are likely to be some meltdowns in December if it goes classic El Niño climo. If we score a decent December though, then very good chance we’re off to the races. But a dud December would be favored. Even those very good mod/strong Nino years like 57-58, 65-66, and 86-87 all had dud Decembers.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Down to 28 on the hill. Some low to mid 20s though down lower when driving the oldest to school a while ago. Very heavy frost too, even up here.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Yeah, if we kept getting that general look in winter, we'd have a blockbuster year. That's pretty classic synoptically for a New England threat. I do expect that those higher heights down south will be replaced by lower heights as we get into winter and the El Nino STJ keeps juicing up....still some La Nina hangover going on right now.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Fwiw, here's the EPS mean....you can clearly see some synoptic support for a wintry threat
  5. ORH_wxman
    Could probably count on one hand the number of times last winter we had legit BN airmass in SE Canada with a shortwave trying to amplify into it. Actually we might only need one or two fingers. It was that rare…we took it for granted for years….how many times did we get a mundane 4-8” front ender because we had a decent high and cold in place? Seemed like every winter it happened multiple times until the last couple where it was like trying to pull wisdom teeth.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Euro has that system as well...but it's more of a front ender....regardless, something to watch....especially given the calendar date. Not many are expecting winter wx this early in the season.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Nice streamer there....
  8. ORH_wxman
    You can see ORH jump out at the end of that graph....I'd bet ORH sticks out like a sore thumb from summer 2020 onward. Years ago, I prob would've noticed right away, but it took until the Dec 5, 2020 marginal snow paste event for me to notice...I was on winter hill for that storm and cheap home thermo got down to 30-31F during the SN+ and mostly 32F otherwise while ORH was like 33-34F almost the whole time.
  9. ORH_wxman
    12/6/09 and 12/2/75 are the two latest freezes at BOS....those are the only 2 that happened in December. 1968 happened on 11/30.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Technically not an El Nino but extremely close to one....2019-20 sucked after a pretty nice December. But of course, that season didn't remotely act like an El Nino....and it would be surprising if this one didn't given how much stronger it is.
  11. ORH_wxman
    EPS does have the synoptic signal for something setting up too...you can see the shortwave diving into the OH Valley while there's a 50/50 low and a Rockies ridge...pretty textbook actually. Just gotta get it closer than D10 and hopefully enough cold given it's early November .
  12. ORH_wxman
    Euro is intriguing for NNE for the 11/7-8 threat. Even flips SNE to snow after rain first....but that was one of the colder solutions in the past couple model cycles....still think something the following weekend in the 11/10-12 range would be a bit easier to get frozen out of (and clown range Euro does look interesting at the end of its run for that)
  13. ORH_wxman
    BDL was near 50" so you'd maybe a few inches less? 45-48ish?
  14. ORH_wxman
    He means snow.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Yeah UHI only matters for the raw numbers...not the departure from average....unless the UHI is a very new phenomenon as to not be fully factored into the 30 year normals (something like Dulles airport between 1980s and 2000s had a lot of increased land use change)....and we know Boston isn't a situation like that. The same exact thing is going on with ORH for 3 years now....they are consistently 1.5-2F higher on the departures than the other first order sites....confirming what MADIS shows
  16. ORH_wxman
    And the record will never be corrected.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Yeah anything that says TAN and PYM average the same amount of snow is not correct. PYM is prob a solid 6" less.
  18. ORH_wxman
    I'd put Taunton in the 42-45ish range long term. They've been more than that recently, but the last 25 years is not the normal no matter how much we all want it to be.
  19. ORH_wxman
    11/8 looks kind of warm to me, though enough cold lurking nearby that an ideal track may produce interior snows....but there's another window after that in the 11/10-12 timeframe which looks like it has a lot more cold available.
  20. ORH_wxman
    There's no way Lancaster only had 13" in 2013-14.....that must be from the 2012-13 season.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Looks pretty questionable the past few years...but might not be enough for them to flag it like ORH....if it stays within 2F of their calibration tools, they don't change it....an unnerving fact we all found out last year when discussing KORH.
  22. ORH_wxman
    I'm hoping La Nina hangover will lead to at least a couple decent periods in December.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Let’s get a nice 128-495 paster mid-December.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Torchy for December. Kind of neutral for Tday period though.
  25. ORH_wxman
    US domestic fertility is wayyy below replacement level right now (2.1 births per female is replacement level) . Same for most western countries.
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