ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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If you can crank 1”+ of QPF then you’re good for at least 8” of snow imho. Look at how shallow the near-freezing layer is at the sfc. Unless this zonks another 50 miles north, I’d feel ok on eastern coast near BOS and immediate south shore. It’s not like one of those thermal profiles where it’s 0C to -1C for hours at 925mb and you’re hoping to tick it another 1C colder. It arrogantly goes to like -3 pretty quickly.
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NAM starting to figure it out. Still south but not total fringe jobs like 06z/12z.
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Euro was spitting out 1.4-1.7” of QPF over a chunk of central/eastern MA…so ratios really don’t need to be crazy to get 18”+ on that. Is it right? Meh, prob overdone but it’s within the envelope of possibilities given go w dynamic the Euro was aloft.
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There’s no worry where you are. But HFD and south needs to watch closely.
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Yeah tossing the mesos until we’re another 24 hours closer.
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Surprised you are bearish on the snow threat.
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NAM was def north early on but it kind of ended up similar to 06z. Still in clown range for that model though.
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NAM will be north of the 06z run but that isn’t surprising considering how flat 06z was
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I’d be pretty surprised if there wasn’t a decent stripe of 10-14” but it won’t be for everyone.
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It’s prob from first flakes to last flakes it might be 12-15 hours but for stuff that actually is going to accumulate it’s prob like 9 hours.
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Yeah and if you’re getting huge omega in that band, I’m thinking someone it gonna go 15 or 18 to 1 on ratios for a chunk of it. So I think that needs to be kept in mind….a little early to obsess over soundings, but sometimes you’ll see people say “what a model bust” if they get a 17” fluff bomb but they ended up with like an inch of QPF just like guidance was saying. On the flip side, you’ll see it too if they go 7 to 1 ratios but the QPF was still accurate.
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There’s still like 3 days for figure QPF but I think someone in a band will do really well with this bumping up against the confluence. Where it’s cold over the interior, you’re gonna have to watch ratios too if we get a crosshair sig…someone could get a foot from like 0.80” of QPF if they’re going 15 to 1.
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Coastal areas might be more like 5-8”.
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May need to watch for a CF…esp during the first half of the event.
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GGEM still kind of clueless but not as much as 12z. At least it gets measurable snow to the pike this run.
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Man that GFS run gets a tiny bit of partial phase action late in the game which just nukes almost all of SNE
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Airmass has steadily improved as we get closer. Not used to seeing that the last two winters.
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Agreed. It’s friggin’ cold too. It’s like -10 to -12c at 850 and 26F at BDL when it starts snowing Tuesday morning at the end of the run…lol
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Yeah if we can get a little bit of partial phasing late in the game that a few of these solutions have shown, it will help tilt that best fronto band a bit more NE to SW instead of ENE to WSW. That would likely get a larger portion of SNE into the max snowfall zone.
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Yeah if metfan can squeeze an advisory snowfall out of this then that bodes extremely well for the SW CT crew.
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It’s a good sign that we’re getting oscillations now in the past few cycles…not a discernible trend. It def could still trend but usually when you start oscillating it means the trends are probably not going to be steep.
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Now out to the end of the run at 90h…it’s def south of 12z
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18z euro looks a tad south of 12z through 78h. Not totally shocking given the 12z eps.
