ORH_wxman
-
Posts
90,911 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by ORH_wxman
-
NAO block changes the whole equation. Still gotta make sure it evolves like guidance says, but if it does, then there’s basically no warmup for the Dec 5-15 period.
-
Natural variability can still trump CC on smaller time spans. Even seasonal chunks like 3 months. 2014-15 wasn’t the coldest DJF up here but it was indeed the coldest JFM on record going back to the late 1800s. So it can happen…it’s just harder than it would’ve been decades ago. I remember thinking Feb 1934 would never be broken up here…then it happened in 2015.
-
I think Chuck is mostly correct that extra tropical SSTs are vastly overrated in terms of their effect on the hemispheric pattern. They are more of a result. They can maybe have some feedback all else equal, but they aren’t primary drivers.
-
We had snow the day before Tday in 1996. Got a white Tday out of it. Maybe there were lingering snow showers and squalls up north.
-
Yeah it was good to see the -NAO not only showing up again, but the pattern got even colder than the 12z run. I think we’d all roll the dice with that look….still a lot of bust potential given this pattern just started showing up, but it’s certainly a positive trend
-
We may have to revive that one. Even if it’s only a handful of people.
-
Awesome. Got all of SNE on there now. The 1” line is prob a little further SE in reality but most people prob didn’t measure until morning. I had around an inch about 1am (about halfway between your 0.1” and the light blue line) but by the time I woke up at 6 it was prob down to a couple tenths. I wouldn’t bother changing it for this event though.
-
The western trough isn’t nearly as deep as last December 10-20th. Also the NAO block is further north. Doesn’t guarantee anything but both of those aspects were part of the reason last December failed to give us a prolific event. You always want to see blocking showing up early since it often repeats itself later in winter. I’ll want to see this on multiple model runs though before believing it.
-
Wasn’t he just trolling the winter crew on Twitter a week ago about a blowtorch/snowless December? This type of discourse is what keeps me from doing wx Twitter.
-
Lot more -NAO showing up in early December than previous runs on both GEFS and EPS....I'd want to see this sustained for a few runs, because it was a notably continuity break
-
Maybe we can pin the PV in SE Canada for a bit. Been a while since we had that type of luck…it’s actually how we stayed cold in mid-Dec 1995 when the rest of the country went torch before PAC reloaded.
-
You want it out near the Aleutians. But even though that pattern isn’t cold, it’s likely serviceable for interior threats.
-
Goes right to the end of the run
-
EPS gone wild with -NAO on 12z run
-
There are some signs that he may come early but then we try and go more wintry as we go into that week leading up to Christmas. Things can obviously change though. I’m not even convinced though that we are going to be snowless during the “relaxation” because it may get kind of blocky up in central Canada which can help us in New England.
-
Yeah that seems pretty fair…1965-66 was technically just under 2.0 (but rounded up to nearest tenth)…so you can see why that one is just strong.
-
There’s a difference between one super Nino monthly value and one super Nino trimonthly value….one requires 3 months to average over 2.0 and the other just requires one month. I’ve never seen any strength classification done with ONI that didn’t just use the peak trimonthly value.
-
If one ONI trimonthly reaches 2.1C, then it will be classified as super. It seems 2.0C is still technically strong since 1965-66 is classified as strong with a max ONI value of 2.0. But in order to get one ONI trimonthly exceeding 2.0, we’re gonna need these current values to sustain all the way through January. I think that’s going to be quite difficult.
-
Measured almost 3” on winter hill to his south so I’m guessing he prob had between 3-4” there before compaction.
-
Prob still snowing by Pleasant Mt on Moose Pond where I go every summer.
-
The mid-level CAD capital of New England.
-
Winter hill in ORH
-
They had between like half inch and an inch there before it flipped. Saw pics.
-
Can see the snow line pretty easily
-
Snowing to your NW in Holliston. Though it’s quite wet here and only just beginning to stick to the grass/mulch. Temp is finally ticking under 34F though now…so maybe we can make a run at measurable in the next hour.
