ORH_wxman

00z was def less amped but the 06z EPS is significantly more amped than 00z EPS…which is weird because the 06z OP run was def flatter….EPS clearly not biting on that flatter look at 06z.

The forcing is just so far west in this. Really nothing to produce good precip. It’s basically a short period of light snow followed by a few pingers and maybe some light ZR over interior…dryslot and maybe some rotting 30s before FROPA. The primary is actually going to end up going pretty close to DTW and then solidly west of Lake Ontario…even further west than the CLE to Toronto track from a couple days ago….which is already going too far west…if you recall, I said we want the primary more in that ERI-BUF-ROC corridor for good dynamics and a front end thump here. We’re so far west of that now that even 1-2” will be a stretch…there’s just not much forcing when you track the main vort so far west.

Let’s go 4-6” and then some Phil ice over the interior like the 06z euro has.

Who cares…just stop replying to his posts if they bother you. When it’s an obvious troll post, it speaks for itself. There’s a reason most don’t respond to it.

Close for you. ORH stays in the 27-29F range so you might be cold enough that run. Doesn’t matter at this time lead yet though.

Yeah it could end up as a nice event but we still need it south a bit more. PV still being a bit obnoxious but at least we’ve trended it better overnight. Need another trend at 12z though or I think it’s gonna be tough. Can’t reverse the overnight trends.

That’s a pretty decent icer outside of 495 on 06z euro. ORH never gets above freezing.

06z euro is def a bit south of 00z

1-2” might be pushing it. Might just be a C-1, then sleet and a little ZR before the slot over the interior.

EPS did have more members south. Mean snowfall jumped too…around 6” for pike region. Fingers crossed we can press that a touch more south.

We're gonna have more chances to screw it up too beyond this weekend. The pattern might be even more favorable after that....we'll see how it progresses, but decent agreement on western ridge building.

To be fair, nothing this week has really been a big coastal....it's always been overrunning and trying to be on the correct side of the gradient....this coming weekend sort of looked like it could redevelop into a coastal at one point, but it was like 80% overrunning precip even on those scenarios. It's really the perfect storm of missing all the forcing at all the "correct" times to minimize our snow....there's big overrunning to our south tomorrow which is going to whiff us....then by the time the boundary moves north, we have an ill-timed shortwave riding well west of us to prevent good overrunning snows on Wednesday night and Thursday....so we're left with weak sauce precip....then of course on Saturday night and Sunday, we've alreayd mentioned the PV rotating into a surgically perfect location to knife the banana high in half to allow the storm to ride up right between them and screw us that way. Sometimes, you just get cold cards....maybe we can still salvage the weekend.

Weekend deal is not an icestorm unless you have that high anchored. Icon at 12z had it but no other guidance save maybe Ukie.

GFS is gonna be south of 12z with weekend. PV pressed a bit more this run.

The next 7 days aren't very snowy on the Euro...it was out in clown range that it got snowy again.

20th does have a pretty good signal on EPS…been there for a couple days Even the weekend still has about 25% of the members as pretty huge hits. I’m not optimistic on weekend but not totally resigned to a rainstorm yet. The 2/20 threat synoptically looks excellent though as the 2/16 system becomes a huge 50/50 low as it phases with the PV fully after passing us. So you combine it with a western ridge and there’s obviously potential. Not worth going crazy though until we get much closer.

The problem is we have no anchored high pressure on the weekend. Synoptically it looks horrific unless we press that PV back eastward/southward.

No reason to stray from 1-2” with some IP/ZR in this one…maybe 1-3” covers any lucky spots. Weak dynamics and low QPF.

Rains to Maine on Euro. Too bad another perfectly-timed PV modulation prevents another big event. That 2/20 event looks awesome though, lol.

Maybe Ukie can be right for once. Big snow (to some ice at the end SOP)

Yes. Not biting yet though. It’s the icon and most other guidance has been showing warmer solutions the last day or so.

GFS is def juicier but don’t buy it until there’s more support.

Yes it is....mesolow was good on that for ice over interior after the initial snow thump.

Prob not until precip is all done over interior...looks like a fast slot.

Yep, weak sauce.