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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Pretty zonked actually.
  2. ORH_wxman
    RGEM looks a lot healthier with the shortwave than the NAM
  3. ORH_wxman
    Yep that reminds me of the Ukie and GGEM last night. It’s further north than those two models but the idea of shearing the southern stream vort is similar. That’s definitely what we DONT want to see because then you end up with crappy rates and lower ceiling for the event.
  4. ORH_wxman
    06z eps
  5. ORH_wxman
    I’m addition to the strong 2/24 signal, we’re starting to see a cluster of lows show up near the BM and further southwest (timing variance) on the individual ensemble plot for 2/19ish. Pretty good to start seeing some clusters at D10
  6. ORH_wxman
    06z euro at 90h looks a little more amped than 00z at 96h fwiw. Maybe seeing some stabilizing of the S trend…we’ll know a lot more at 12z. We’ll be getting into that sub-100 hour range now on the 12z guidance which is when confidence starts ramping up faster.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Nice to see 06z runs look a little better.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Right but it’s a plausible solution if we see the PV up in Canada continue to press down against the SE ridge. There’s going to be no space for that southern shortwave to keep its strength…it will get ground to a pulp at some point if that trend doesn’t cease. Hopefully this is the extent of it.
  9. ORH_wxman
    The confluence is starting to create a problem since we also have a SE ridge. Really hope this thing doesn’t trend into a meat grinder POS like the Ukie/GGEM. Hopefully euro comes in solid and then I’ll have more confidence the Ukie/GGEM are out to lunch.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Ukie is a clean whiff. No QPF north of nyc.
  11. ORH_wxman
    The confluence up north is def real…the question is whether the southern stream shortwave gets sheared out by “almost phasing” with the northern stream like the GGEM shows. Most other guidance doesn’t show that but the GGEM has been doing that quite a lot on the past few runs.
  12. ORH_wxman
    GGEM still keeping it sheared and ugly. But that seems to be an outlier right now. The rest of guidance is keeping the southern stream separate and potent.
  13. ORH_wxman
    And that is expected with the trend in increased confluence. You’re going to have a really good fronto band somewhere when you have a vigorous southern stream s/w slamming up into that brick wall to the north. But whoever ends up north of that band will be choking on arctic sand exhaust.
  14. ORH_wxman
    That fringed him. He had like 8” compared to the 12-18 zone near and just S of pike down into CT/RI
  15. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I agree the 18z euro out to 90h looks south of 12z.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that’s close to a Lance Bosart “little critter” setup. Rip a high-end jet streak on a clipper just south of LI….positive bust template. Hopefully it’s trackable next week.
  17. ORH_wxman
    At least it looks like if the track is similar to 1/7, we’ll be significantly colder with that high trying to press down and getting that airmass ingested.
  18. ORH_wxman
    That clipper shortwave at the end of next week is pretty interesting too. It’s been on almost all guidance but some of the models suppress it but GFS has been more bullish for us. I’d love a nice old school clipper that gives us a solid 3-6 on top of existing pack. We finally have a western ridge with an active northern stream…something we’ve lacked much of the last few winters…and that type of pattern is good for clippers.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Draws down some colder air in the CCB…temps would def be less of an issue on that look. They’d be marginal at the onset but once it got cranking, you have like -6 at 925 ingested into the system.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Yes and this has some juice to it. It’s not going to put up 20-burgers all over the place but there’s potential for a widespread 10-14” if it breaks right. 2/9/17 is another quick hitter that comes to mind that kind of reminds me of this….produced a lot of 10-14” amounts even though the event was basically a 9-12 hour job. Be leery of the north trend though on the southern streamers.
  21. ORH_wxman
    CIPS is based off the 12z GFS today…so the analogs are going to have a lot of suppressed systems.
  22. ORH_wxman
    I wouldn’t throw in the towel yet there. You might be in a good spot when we’re looking at this on Sunday.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I’m slightly surprised at where it is right now. Expected it to be further north but there’s plenty of time for trends…1/7 was a southern streamer that juiced back north in the final 84h.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Nice ML goodies for CT/RI/SE MA that run. Maybe even tickling the pike. Starting to get some movement toward the model consensus now on the outliers (ICON went south and GFS went north)
  25. ORH_wxman
    18z icon still pretty amped but not as much as 12z. Not a big surprise given it was the northern outlier on the 12z suite.
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