ORH_wxman

We get coywolves all the time here...they can get loud at times. Esp if they are attacking something then it sounds really eerie.

The pack situation is about as bad as it gets up north right now. It will make a comeback for sure over the next few weeks, but there's very few winters that look like that up north on 12/22.

It’s pretty obvious at this point we’re getting a major pattern shift. As usual, details can’t be figured this far out.

No I thought your reply was good. I was really just speaking in general to those who want to keep obsessing with the attribution stuff can take it elsewhere since it always ends up cluttering the thread. This really should be a pattern/present wx thread and directly related topics. I think mentioning CC is fine when it’s directly relevant to the topic and has good factual basis with it…but it gets very tedious when it devolves into hyperbole or very debatable claims being passed off as fact. Those who want to debate those can do in the forum made for that.

GEFS and EPS both recently have been trying to get the Atlantic involved as we go deeper into the first week or January. I think we’ll definitely want that because the N PAC may try and reshuffle mid-month but a good Atlantic would keep us shielded from that somewhat hopefully long enough for when PAC gets favorable again (likely during the peak El Niño climo of late Jan and Feb)

If we can decouple, might get mid teens here overnight but I think wind is going to be an issue off and on so expecting more like 20ish.

Yep and this isn’t the forum to debate every attribution. Anyone who has read a lot of the attribution literature when it comes to patterns and actual weather events knows it’s not a very cut and dried part of the science…as say…long term temperature trends. The other stuff is constantly being debated in the literature and often changes. We’ll tolerate some tangential discussion in here when it’s somewhat relevant to the discussion but there’s a climate change forum if people want to post there.

We might still get a storm prior to January. There’s some signal on both GFS and Euro suites of something around 12/31. And yes, the pattern looks solid beyond that.

You’d need a huge vortex pushing down from eastern Canada to make it work. Prior to the Christmas 2002 storm we had that. A really deep SW trough into Baja but look at our area…that was setting it up for a Miller B redeveloper instead of a torching cutter.

Funny, it wasn’t a hit at D10…just a close call…so nothing needs to happen for it to miss.

Close call for 12/31 on euro.

Typically I've found on this forum over the past 15-20 years (but especially the last 6-8 years) is that if no snowstorms are imminent on guidance, many will just look for deep blue temperature anomalies over us and if they don't see them, then it means we're not getting snow through the end of that 15 day ensemble period. It's roughly a 5th grade way of looking at the wx pattern, but you can only lead a horse to water.

Still a large difference in some guidance for next week...esp in NNE....Canadian is quite icy for them while GFS is a torch. We'll have to see which way the Euro breaks today. But agreed on longer range GFS....that's a nice looking pattern overall, decent cold around and hopefully one of those many shortwaves can line up correctly for us.

If a bunch of us had 40 and 50 burgers by 1/23, that would be like Jan 2011 stretch.

Yeah I’ve posted various maps that show this…CC doesn’t occur evenly on the spacial/temporal scale. Some areas accelerate and then stall (or even decrease a bit) before resuming warming. Plains are a great example with the rapid warming late 20th century and then a slight negative trend since the late 90s. I’m sure we’ll go through a period of slower or non-existent warming for a time..and it will likely be in conjunction with more warming in places like northern Rockies and western Canada.

Yeah what would have that map looked like if you started in 1985 instead of 2000?…it would be dark blue shades for “top 10% in snow cover increase”….no doubt that long term you’ll see snow cover days decrease with warming temps, but that 22 years doesn’t tell you much anything. You get a few snowy winters like the 2007-2011 period and it changes the math very quickly.

Got colder but not enough for most of us. But it helps them out up there.

Maybe we get screwed again, but it definitely won't be the same style as last year....such a different looking PAC.

It appears BOS stopped reporting snow depth after the 2003-2004 winter. So I have no idea what station they are using to determine anything past December 2003 for snow depth and white Xmas. We obviously know 2009 had snow there but in more marginal years, I'm not sure what they are using. I don't even think 2010 was that marginal either.

FWIW, the Hingham coop had a white christmas that year....still not sure what they are using to say BOS didn't have one because Logan airport didn't report snow depth in 2010.

Where are they getting the snow depth numbers from anyway? BOS stopped reporting snow depth well before 2010.

Just checked the NOHRSC maps and they seem to agree

I think 2010 was mostly Logan-specific. I was in Boston on Xmas eve and the common was covered with about 2-3" of snow and there was about 2" OTG the entire way back to ORH.

For ORH, general climo is the snowiest 1 month period is January 28th to February 28th. For CON, it looks like it's pretty similar, maybe January 30th to March 2nd.

I should be there pretty early around 430 im guessing. Won;t be able to stay too late though.