ORH_wxman

Happened in the Feb 28, 1995 ice storm. We had about 3 inches on the front end of that and then a ton of ZR on top of it. If anything, I think snow would make it worse by weighting down limbs more. ZR will accrete on snow just fine.

You can’t tell people not to worry about it if everyone is actively tracking it. Otherwise we wouldn’t even bother to look beyond D7. It might come back…or it could just keep trending SE into zero because the PV overwhelmed it. There’s a reason it’s mostly useless to track this far out.

We should test it out and see if you think half an inch of ice all over everything classifies as an ice storm if there’s snow prior to it.

EPS def has plenty of Phil members for icing over interior for this weekend (and actually still has nearly 6” of snow in the mean for the pike region). Unlike the 06z run, the EPS is a bit SE of the OP run.

If it was coherent enough, it would, but it’s all about competing forces. If the mesolow is kind of weak (like on Euro) until it gets further north, then it won’t help as much in southern areas.

No, the snow is accurate. CT actually does pretty well on the front end for snow. It’s just a quick transition through sleet/ZR to rain after the initial snow while NOP keeps the ZR longer…aided by cold tuck too on mesolow.

Wide right. Close but it’s a whiff this run. OP run not useful though for 200+ hour threats.

06z was colder at the height of the storm. Not by a ton but it was a bit colder. But the 12z run did have a better shot of snow on the front end than 06z.

Still close to being parakeets…esp south of pike. I’d like to see a more subtle shift south/east with PV

Need it to cool a bit for more sleet…warms too much aloft for sleet. Want to keep that warm layer +3 or colder. Euro actually flips you to rain and then back to moderate ZR as you cold tuck…good location there for any cold tucking (really caused a lot of ZR damage back in 2008 in Essex county)

Euro has a decent shot of snow prior to ptype changes. Like 3-6” for most of SNE.

Euro Over interior. Esp ORH county and into S NH but it’s further south for a while before eventually warming SOP.

PV shifting west is bad so I think we’re screwed unless it comes back east a little. The 50/50 low has definitely trended stronger today though so that tries to offset it some…so there’s potential to get this pretty cold if PV can revert back to 00z.

Meanwhile, Ukie is rains to Maine after a bit of frozen on the front end.

Canadian would be Phil over interior too I think. Once you track meso over the cape, it’s over.

Yep and down to Kevin in N CT…as much as we want to tease him on missing it, it would prob lock in for a lot of the interior…maybe even down to Wolfie’s area too on that look.

Get ready for Phil over interior…mesolow already showing up at 114 SE of LI looking to track near Cape

50/50 low is offsetting it a lot this run.

Heights over maritimes and Nova Scotia are lower though at 102. Could be a battle.

GFS west and weaker with PV through 78h. She’s coming northwest this run.

Potential Phil ice over interior that run.

Synoptically, I’m mostly in agreement with Tip on the setup wanting to favor this pressing a bit more. You start with a very cold antecedent airmass (850 temps between -15c and -20c over much of New England on Friday). You have a 50/50 low that is actively strengthening at the same time the block is pushing south…these will act to lower heights over southeastern Canada….but that said, there’s still enough room if that PV tries to “lobe-out” a bit to the west and southwest, we could plausibly sneak this sucker up northwest enough with surgical precision to manifest the least interesting solution possible. In any normal winter or group of winters (given the last 2 years prior to this), I’d say fade the northwest guidance and hedge the southeast guidance…but we seem to find ways to maximize the pain around here so I’m paying plenty of attention to the rainers showing up. Let’s see if we get any help at 12z.

No we don’t truly warm sector…though after the CAD mixes out it could get pretty mushy for 6-8 hours.

Yes I think it’s a pretty bad setback. Though I’m willing to see if 12z provides more clarity…it was weird to see the EPS not follow the OP run when we’re getting inside D6. Usually they trend the same direction once you’re getting out of clown range. But it might be a red flag that the ensembles didn’t follow the OP.

Really gotta watch the Cape. It almost tilts a little ENE and maybe they can get into the goodies for a few hours. Gonna be close but Bruce Willis is lurking with those 850 vectors.