ORH_wxman

Euro AI is a cape scraper, lol. It’s been really flat. We’ll see what the OP does in a few minutes.

128 gradient

Vort def gets squeezed as it heads east. It’s the classic opposing forces we often see in these types of setups where the downstream WAA/ridge pumping is being offset by the confluence up in Quebec.

Looks in-between icon and GFS.

GFS is a great run for SNE/CNE….CNE would prob get some ML goodies even if modeled QPF is less.

Yeah it could def come in a little better. I don’t think the fundamentals of the system are going to change drastically at this point (it will still be retreating during the event) but if the high holds a little stronger, then it would definitely make a difference.

Yeah I don’t think it’s going out on a limb to say if the most amped solution verifies, metrowest to 495 would have a lot of trouble getting accumulating snow. But there’s a plethora of solutions that are colder as well and this is likely to oscillate some on guidance until we are a bit closer.

Gonna be tough for coastal and SE peeps. This isn’t their storm unless it threads the needle. I think interior SNE could do well though.

06z EPS looks pretty nice. Still a ways to go though.

You’d like to see the low north of New Foundland a little south to hold in the high from retreating as much. It would give us more wiggle room on the track.

Not a whole lot to say other than storm is definitely more probable than it looked 24 hours ago. Reasonable model agreement for 5.5-6 days out now. The cold front that comes through Sunday night is our antecedent airmass. So you’ll want it to trend stronger/south if you want the storm to come in colder on subsequent runs. Ideally you’d get both the cold front stronger and the shortwave stronger from the storm…which would give you a colder antecedent airmass but a juicier storm running into it.

If it were Christmas Eve instead of Thanksgiving Eve, the 60F isotherm would be 100 miles north.

It’s pretty cold in the low levels on that depiction. Pretty wide area of sleet. It’s a really sloped system. But these are details that are mostly irrelevant right now.

When the hell did you move down to the south coast? Must’ve been when I was on vacation from here all summer.

We’re due for another good old classic 495 storm. The high is actually starting in a decent spot at the onset. It retreats but even coast might get a good front ender if that antecedent airmass is good.

We’ll make sure the proper rituals are done to maximize our chances. If it doesn’t work, we’ll just have to sacrifice someone

The weeklies keep slowly amplifying the Scandi ridging toward the North Pole over the course of December. They pop a western ridge too in week 3. That would be pretty sweet.

‘93-94 winter….so Tday ‘93

I consider any accumulation from squalls an overachiever if it's fairly widespread....but yeah, I do think there will be some isolated streamers that get a few lucky peeps. It would be nice if we could turn the low level winds more to the south out ahead of the secondary arctic front. That would help pool a little more moisture.

EPS likes 12/6 for another threat. Then when you loop the individual member plot beyond 12/6, it's kind of like buckshot from 12/8-12/11 which is the end of the run...that tells me its pretty active if sub-1004 lows are appearing that frequently on the ensemble plot. Hopefully that NAO depiction is real....it's the type of orientation we want too....the retrograding Scandinavian ridge instead of some ugly thing from the Azors....that type of -PNA/-NAO look I've mentioned in the past can be pretty prolific here.

Not very good low level moisture either which is what you want for over achieving WINDEX events.

Beyond that 12/2 threat which is pretty precarious as it is....the pattern looks about as favorable as you can get it considering we're firmly in a La Nina/-PDO regime this season....note the NAO ridging that has retrograded into Greenland from Scandavia....this is what Scott and I were talking about when we wanted to see it come back a couple days ago. It's been showing up again and it's gotten a bit stronger the last 2 runs of the EPS, so hopefully it's not fake. It makes the pattern a lot better when you have even just some weak ridging up there. This is a 5 day mean .

EPS not quite as good as 00z, but this is workable at D7.

Euro still has the system and H5 doesn’t look terrible. Not in a bad spot right now.

Parakeets and flamingos today. Proba the last of it for a while until Christmas Eve.