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ORH_wxman

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. Yeah you want a phased 1/7 system helping with confluence ahead of the 1/10 system. GGEM was better for 1/10 too and I’m betting it’s 1/7 solution helped.
  2. Gonna whiff south or be a fringe job this run.
  3. Almost looks like Feb ‘83 aloft…with a bit of the first storm from Dec ‘96 mixed in (12/6/96) since it comes in slightly more neg tilted and west of ‘83….but just like ‘83, there’s that risk of shooting ENE.
  4. Yeah the longwave pattern isn’t going to change much but there’s some details that will matter a lot on both threats. For both, what happens to our north and east is going to affect things.
  5. And the 10th might even be a net gain even if we’re flipping. Esp interior. Hopefully we trend that one just a bit more.
  6. Don’t hate seeing the north trend stop for now. There’s still 6 days of trends to go and these juiced southern streamers have been known to sneak north again as we get closer.
  7. It is far from forgone that 1/10 will be mostly rain.
  8. For 80-90% of this forum, it’s going to be snow if the low tracks anywhere between the benchmark and ACK in the current synoptic setup. Now if we get more of a hugger, then you’re going to introduce more ptype issues. EPS has a lot more hugger solutions so that’s going to be messier…esp southern areas and coastline.
  9. Don’t think there’s enough room for that with a 50/50 low. But it could get close enough for snow changing to a mix of crap…but right now most guidance is SE of the Euro which was still all snow for SNE outside the cape and islands.
  10. So for a potential big coastal a week out, we have EPS suite amped and the GEFS mostly a fringe job SE….sounds like the universe is starting to return to normal.
  11. Yeah the only way cold is an issue is if 1/7 somehow cuts. Any coastal track is going to have plenty of cold.
  12. I don’t think I’d want a southern stream system cutting inland in model guidance 7 days out. I’d much rather need a little bump north.
  13. 1/10 looks CAD-ish to me. Doubt interior would get wiped…could even be a net gain if you get a decent front-ender. It’s still 10 days so not sure the obsession with it anyway.
  14. That’s just the starting point. Can always adjust up as we get closer.
  15. 1/7 is a really strong sig for this far out but given it’s still a week out I wouldn’t get too committed yet regardless of how bad December was.
  16. Could be a pretty fun period…esp if we can sort of morph that 1/10 threat into a SWFE front ender type instead of a true cutter.
  17. Aside from the storm threats over the next 10 days, the LR improved overnight…that NAO blocking is still showing but the N PAC looks a lot better. Poleward EPO ridging showing up post-10th.
  18. Dewpoints starting to fall below freezing here. Can’t remember the last time we had that.
  19. Pretty much all of the I-35 corridor cities in TX will get totality. San Antonio/Austin/Waco/Dallas. Waco is right in the middle though so they’ll get it the longest.
  20. Give us that type of trend a couple more runs and we’re in business.
  21. Yeah some of those prob had some northern stream insert at some point before turning the corner. That event doesn’t look like a classic phase since there’s a trough out west…but getting a bit of northern stream energy into it prior to it turning north would help out.
  22. The two systems almost have opposite problems. 1/5 we’re needing a bit more southern stream phasing (ala GGEM) and for 1/7 we need more northern stream injection. That’s what I’d be looking for on each model cycle.
  23. I honestly have no idea what you’re talking about. The 1/7 setup has a high to the north. It’s not advecting in PAC air as it approaches. It would be drawing down air from that high.
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