ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yeah you want a phased 1/7 system helping with confluence ahead of the 1/10 system. GGEM was better for 1/10 too and I’m betting it’s 1/7 solution helped.
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Wow GGEM came way north.
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Gonna whiff south or be a fringe job this run.
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Almost looks like Feb ‘83 aloft…with a bit of the first storm from Dec ‘96 mixed in (12/6/96) since it comes in slightly more neg tilted and west of ‘83….but just like ‘83, there’s that risk of shooting ENE.
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Yeah the longwave pattern isn’t going to change much but there’s some details that will matter a lot on both threats. For both, what happens to our north and east is going to affect things.
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And the 10th might even be a net gain even if we’re flipping. Esp interior. Hopefully we trend that one just a bit more.
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Don’t hate seeing the north trend stop for now. There’s still 6 days of trends to go and these juiced southern streamers have been known to sneak north again as we get closer.
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It is far from forgone that 1/10 will be mostly rain.
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For 80-90% of this forum, it’s going to be snow if the low tracks anywhere between the benchmark and ACK in the current synoptic setup. Now if we get more of a hugger, then you’re going to introduce more ptype issues. EPS has a lot more hugger solutions so that’s going to be messier…esp southern areas and coastline.
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Don’t think there’s enough room for that with a 50/50 low. But it could get close enough for snow changing to a mix of crap…but right now most guidance is SE of the Euro which was still all snow for SNE outside the cape and islands.
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So for a potential big coastal a week out, we have EPS suite amped and the GEFS mostly a fringe job SE….sounds like the universe is starting to return to normal.
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Yeah the only way cold is an issue is if 1/7 somehow cuts. Any coastal track is going to have plenty of cold.
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I don’t think I’d want a southern stream system cutting inland in model guidance 7 days out. I’d much rather need a little bump north.
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1/10 looks CAD-ish to me. Doubt interior would get wiped…could even be a net gain if you get a decent front-ender. It’s still 10 days so not sure the obsession with it anyway.
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That’s just the starting point. Can always adjust up as we get closer.
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1/7 is a really strong sig for this far out but given it’s still a week out I wouldn’t get too committed yet regardless of how bad December was.
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Could be a pretty fun period…esp if we can sort of morph that 1/10 threat into a SWFE front ender type instead of a true cutter.
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Aside from the storm threats over the next 10 days, the LR improved overnight…that NAO blocking is still showing but the N PAC looks a lot better. Poleward EPO ridging showing up post-10th.
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Dewpoints starting to fall below freezing here. Can’t remember the last time we had that.
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Pretty much all of the I-35 corridor cities in TX will get totality. San Antonio/Austin/Waco/Dallas. Waco is right in the middle though so they’ll get it the longest.
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Give us that type of trend a couple more runs and we’re in business.
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Yeah some of those prob had some northern stream insert at some point before turning the corner. That event doesn’t look like a classic phase since there’s a trough out west…but getting a bit of northern stream energy into it prior to it turning north would help out.
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Pounds of goose meat?
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The two systems almost have opposite problems. 1/5 we’re needing a bit more southern stream phasing (ala GGEM) and for 1/7 we need more northern stream injection. That’s what I’d be looking for on each model cycle.
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I honestly have no idea what you’re talking about. The 1/7 setup has a high to the north. It’s not advecting in PAC air as it approaches. It would be drawing down air from that high.
