ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Different issue…h7 track is mostly independent of antecedent airmass. I say “mostly” because a really cold antecedent airmass would probably force things a little south even aloft. The problem so often the last two years has been basically no good high to the north. And the couple times we’ve had a decent high, it wasn’t a fresh airmass.
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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
ORH_wxman replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
There’s some threats after the clipper too. 2/20-21 is starting to show up more. Some guidance tries to sneak in a smaller threat 2/17-18 too. -
I usually don’t expect messenger ticks until very late. We’ll see what 12z does. 06z easily could’ve just been a slight wobble and not a trend.
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Yeah they’ll def still tick north, but I wonder if globals stabilize or even come a tick south again (like 06z did)…I usually expect everything to bump a little north in the 48-60 time range.
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Weird how the mesos are lagging so much in globals.
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06z euro looks a tick less zonked too.
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06z GFS might have been the first run in a while on that model that ticked a little south. Small amount though as has been with that model throughout this threat. It’s been acting like the old euro with small moves.
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Not sure. GFS has showed it a few times but it hasn’t been showing up much on other guidance I checked. The partial phase does show the thing going really neg tilt at that point on the GFS and maybe it gets one last shot of moisture from the convective WCB wrapping all the way into the CCB….but yeah, kind of weird how and can only speculate
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Why wouldn’t it be ok to post? As long as it’s a freebie, people can post.
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00z NAM looks like confluence is stronger in front of the wave than 18z. But northern stream is trying to dive in behind it for the partial phase.
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ARW should do it sometime between now and 15z run tomorrow
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Much less impressive aloft that run but that’s gonna happen. It’s why we’re not forecasting 1-2 feet. But I think the general idea of a favorable track puts a floor of about 7-8” there. Exact dynamic evolution still TBD which will determine whether it’s 8-10” or 12-18” in your area.
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Yeah agreed and I’m not even really counting a few drops at the onset for a place like HFD down to MMK before they wetbulb…when the real precip gets going, it’s going to be snow unless we see some drastic change in guidance over the next 24-36h.
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Don’t think so
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On what model? The ICON?
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No, euro actually draws in pretty cold air on that type of solution. I don’t think you’re going to have any paste at all save maybe the first 2-3 hours when rates are not heavy yet.
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ICON starting to sober up too. Came south a good tick but still north of other models.
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18z Reggie bumped solidly N too. Still decently south of Euro/GFS but it gets warning snows up to near the pike or just S.
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If you can crank 1”+ of QPF then you’re good for at least 8” of snow imho. Look at how shallow the near-freezing layer is at the sfc. Unless this zonks another 50 miles north, I’d feel ok on eastern coast near BOS and immediate south shore. It’s not like one of those thermal profiles where it’s 0C to -1C for hours at 925mb and you’re hoping to tick it another 1C colder. It arrogantly goes to like -3 pretty quickly.
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NAM starting to figure it out. Still south but not total fringe jobs like 06z/12z.
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Euro was spitting out 1.4-1.7” of QPF over a chunk of central/eastern MA…so ratios really don’t need to be crazy to get 18”+ on that. Is it right? Meh, prob overdone but it’s within the envelope of possibilities given go w dynamic the Euro was aloft.
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There’s no worry where you are. But HFD and south needs to watch closely.
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Yeah tossing the mesos until we’re another 24 hours closer.
