ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Reggie has a decent look at 84h with the leading s/w. Looks like it holds enough mechanics together.
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NAM would actually have the storm on the kicker wave....the front runner gets ground up so much that it isn't able to sweep away the baroclinic zone with it.
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That was the storm where it was below 0F and snowing
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Ukie was pretty close to Euro....a little south but big QPF up to about BOS-HFD
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06z EPS maybe looks like it has a better cluster NW than 00z? Not sure what mean QPF looks like yet, but the SLP looks slightly better. No huge changes though.
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I crashed early last night but it seems like we’re sort of stabilized on the trends. Still a good amount of variance though.
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Lot of confluence on GFS for 1/10. If only the main shortwave wasn’t so wrapped up to the west, it would be a huge front ender. As it is, there’s a few inches, but the magnitude of deepening to the west is inhibiting some of the best dynamics to run out ahead as often does in early-stage cyclogensis.
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Trailing shortwave is more impressive than the front runner. If it ever sped up slightly, it would be a pretty good event. Seems to be a lot of issues identifying how much integrity each vortmax is going to have.
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Let’s be honest, nobody is going to be super confident in plowable snowfall until we’re inside of 3 days with good model agreement. A couple cycles ago, the S and SE peeps were all worried about this being a hugger…now the worry is the opposite. Nobody really knows whether this is the “one” to be worried about or if it will bump back NW on the next cycle. But that’s life 5 days out on a storm threat.
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18z EPS trended weaker and S but it does still have a large number of those NW lows clustered together.
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They’ve been trending colder overall. But it’s not been a straight line trend. A bit noisy but it’s def a colder look than 48-60 hours ago. But it could easily trend warmer like the OP Euro today too. It’s 8 days away so we’re not gonna know a whole lot more until probably later this week.
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Well to be fair, 12z showed 12+ for a chunk of SNE so 18z showing the same thing would just be continuity. If it showed 18+, my guess is most people would just say 18z is on the sauce at happy hour. We’ll know more at 00z.
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That’s an ugly solution but there is a way to still get a decent storm if that trailer catches up like the 18z icon. Or we keep the initial s/w stronger.
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I’m not convinced SNE is a mostly rain event yet on 1/10. Esp for interior. You gotta remember that thing is still 8 days out.
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Wonder if some of those slower EPS members are doing the same thing.
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Trailer s/w caught it and prolongs the event into like a 30-36 hour deal. That would be a new twist.
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That does show that 1/10 even on the EPS is still a legit threat for NNE. OP run was the warmest outlier. Hopefully we can trend that even colder further south. There’s some competing forces though so it’s certainly possible the warmer idea wins out too.
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It’s cold at 925. Barring a true hugger track, prob gonna need to be within 5-10 miles of water to be above freezing and areas a little further north like BOS might stay below anyway.
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Agreed. Just need it to verify now. Lol. GEFS was a little less ideal but still decent….hopefully EPS are more correct.
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Yeah EPS still has that Nw cluster
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Agreed. North of 00z EPS but a touch south of 06z EPS. Waiting on individual clusters to come out.
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Good chance for lingering light snow since the shortwave is stretched/sheared out at the end…sort of forces an IVT to hang back and keep light snow falling. Don’t think additional accums would be big but like an inch or two from late afternoon through evening wouldn’t be surprising in that type of setup.
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Hopefully it’s out to lunch vs other guidance. That’s a huge difference. Some guidance gives warning criteria snow for just about all of CNE/NNE (and even close in parts of SNE) while Euro is not much at all and prolonged mild rains.
