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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    EPS looks like GEFS too
  2. ORH_wxman
    EPS are not very exciting either. The mean is fairly close to the OP except less for the Cape and SE areas.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Synoptically it really wasn’t that bad of a solution. It’s not going to drop 12”+ on that look but a 5-8” type event would be pretty consistent with how it looked. Id look for stronger vort going forward which may help in strengthening the storm more rapidly once south of us.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Disorganized mess on the QPF. Midlevel tracks are really nice though…so I don’t hate that part. Wish the vort was a bit stronger in the upper air which I think would help get that “curl” we want to really get it to go to town
  5. ORH_wxman
    Euro looks more robust with shortwave at 60h compared to 06z but the confluence is a little stronger as well.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Yeah most of them were. 1990-91 wasn’t that dry, but it still sucked. It was slightly AN for temps.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I’m not overly confident yet. Kevin has definitely bought in…I do think he’s in a decent spot right now but I’d really like to see some more agreement on guidance. 12z so far (sans clown range NAM) is actually all pretty close, which is something we haven’t really seen so far in this system.
  8. ORH_wxman
    There was a storm over a foot on January 8-9, 1988 at ORH and then we didn’t get another double digit storm until December 1992. Almost 5 years. If it can happen at 1000 feet over interior MA over 3 decades ago, it can happen a lot longer elsewhere.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Yeah sure, if the CCB is tracking over NNE then it’s a moot point. But I’m talking if this is mostly as depicted on the synoptics….it would quickly be a paste storm over the interior after brief rain to start.
  10. ORH_wxman
    It looks plenty cold over the interior once it gets going. Might start as a little rain but 925s are like -2 to -3….no chance of rain for him when it wetbulbs to that profile.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Kevin this might be the paster you’ve been waiting for.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Def morphing into an interior SNE/CNE deal. You don’t get that second round of deepening that was crushing SE areas on some of the runs yesterday.
  13. ORH_wxman
    1958 stayed great almost to the end. The big dog HECS was around the equinox.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Someone who is not on a phone can prob toggle EPS to see if they moved…but they look really close to 00z just eyeballing…maybe the smallest tick SE
  15. ORH_wxman
    Up to 47 here. Might be able to sneak in a warm day today at least in this area though that frontal boundary is lurking not too far north of the pike and it’s going to sink back south at some point.
  16. ORH_wxman
    I’m still expecting a push north at some point given it’s a southern streamer. It’s possible we have a bunch of turd southeast scraper solutions and everyone here cancels the threat and then it comes back N….or maybe it starts at 12z.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Yeah my confidence in the euro is shook a bit. A few years ago I’d probably be getting pretty gung ho.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Yes, it’s pretty rare to see 6”+ that high at d4-5. But I don’t have that type of confidence at all in this one yet like those probs would normally imply.
  19. ORH_wxman
    There’s some that would dump 12+ over a good chunk. At least this system has upside. Better than tracking one where we’re hoping for 2-4” like it’s 1988-89 with Bruce Schwoegler honking for 5”+ if you include the squalls the next day.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Here’s 18z eps. Getting close enough now that these are going to start being decent to track
  21. ORH_wxman
    No he’s in the monadnocks in NH.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Charles River actually freezes pretty easily. I saw people out in it even in a moderate winter like 2020-21. But yeah, we’re not getting many 77-78 type temps these days.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Anyone with over 4" has a decent chance of keeping it....but this 2-3" of thawing glacier won't survive I don't think...maybe in patches....we're onto 1/29.
  24. ORH_wxman
    They’ll slowly climb. But you may have trouble breaking 40 up there even tomorrow. 18z NAM even canceled the 50s for CT tomorrow.
  25. ORH_wxman
    33.5 and drizzle. Most of the snow finally gone off the trees.
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