ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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You're in a good spot for 1/10. Want to be northeast for that one. Seems like you'll at leats get decent snows in 1/7 too even if Euro was a little too happy at 12z.
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Even this run gets warning crtieria snow to N ORH county over to N Berks....prob advisory type stuff close to the pike (and N/W of 495)....needs more work to look like the GFS/GGEM, but that was a nice improvement from 00z.
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Euro is starting to cave to GFS/GGEM....still think this run won't be as good as those runs, but it won't be as torchy as 00z.
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Yeah we nearly lost the lead wave on this run, but it was running NW of the previous runs, so it kept all the forcing near the coast and inland instead of getting swept seaward.
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Does the quasi-capture scenario that is ideal for still getting heavy burst of snow and then prolonging the stuff on Sunday
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Euro looks a bit more amped than 06z through 60 hours.
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You can ignore the Ukie clown map close to the coast...it has a bad warm bias near the sfc, so it often shows rain like 10-15 miles inland despite 925 temps of like -3C.
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PV over western Canada....NAO saving our bacon like one of those late '60s winters.
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Ukie is a bit tamer than 00z....doesn't have that 12"+ type snow from BOS-HFD south....more like 6-10" with advisory stuff prob into S NH
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On the point soundings for SE MA, it had a good cross-hair sig on the 12z run....your area may have been a little far NW on GFS for the real goods in that department, but it wouldn't take much of a move to get into them.
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CC causes the emergence from the warm season cocoon to happen later than we're used to.
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Yeah this isn't the thread for 1/10....lets keep this one about 1/7 so peeps don't get confused.
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Seems like that trailing s/w being stronger in the 1/7 event plus it's trying to phase a bit with that northern piece traversing the N stream is locking in the confluence better for 1/10 on some of these runs.
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GGEM might be even colder than GFS....big event for all of New England.
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You might struggle to hit freezing on that look until right around FROPA when you mix.
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Big front-ender on GFS for 1/10. Warning crtieria for a lot of SNE before the flip.
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12z GGEM is poundtown with the lead shortwave....crushes CT over to SE MA...but all of SNE gets good snow.
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There's the re-invigoration Sunday PM on the GFS as the trailer catches up....some nice bands redevelop over much of SNE.
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Leading wave does look stronger through 54h on the 12z run vs 06z....the trailing wave is also closer....might try and get a quasi-capture on this run like the Euro? We'll see.
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For American models (GFS and NAM), I still think PSU is one of the best combos of decent graphics and fast updates. Faster than TT usually on those two models. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewall.html
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That was from weathermodels.com which is paid....pretty cheap though. I've been considering switching, but I'm giving this site one more winter.
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ICON QPF for those waiting on TT
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ICON looked like 00z Ukie....really big hit for BOS-HFD line southward. Maybe move the heavy precip line a bit north of that on the ICON.
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It isn't because the storm usually consolidates onto one shortwave/vortmax. But this is the type of situation where it could not do that if that front runner gets sheared quick enough....my personal gut feeling is that the front runner survives enough for a decent event from that piece of energy with maybe a little lingering -SN from the trailer. But prob not one of these 30-36 hour deals.
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That's kind of what the 06z GFS did....maybe weakened the first s/w slightly too miuch for your description, but it basically turned the event into a 30-36 hour light snow with maybe some moderate bursts for eastern areas Sunday PM as it tries to re-invigorate from the trailer shortwave before it exits.
