ORH_wxman
-
Posts
90,892 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by ORH_wxman
-
Leading wave does look stronger through 54h on the 12z run vs 06z....the trailing wave is also closer....might try and get a quasi-capture on this run like the Euro? We'll see.
-
For American models (GFS and NAM), I still think PSU is one of the best combos of decent graphics and fast updates. Faster than TT usually on those two models. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewall.html
-
That was from weathermodels.com which is paid....pretty cheap though. I've been considering switching, but I'm giving this site one more winter.
-
ICON QPF for those waiting on TT
-
ICON looked like 00z Ukie....really big hit for BOS-HFD line southward. Maybe move the heavy precip line a bit north of that on the ICON.
-
It isn't because the storm usually consolidates onto one shortwave/vortmax. But this is the type of situation where it could not do that if that front runner gets sheared quick enough....my personal gut feeling is that the front runner survives enough for a decent event from that piece of energy with maybe a little lingering -SN from the trailer. But prob not one of these 30-36 hour deals.
-
That's kind of what the 06z GFS did....maybe weakened the first s/w slightly too miuch for your description, but it basically turned the event into a 30-36 hour light snow with maybe some moderate bursts for eastern areas Sunday PM as it tries to re-invigorate from the trailer shortwave before it exits.
-
Reggie has a decent look at 84h with the leading s/w. Looks like it holds enough mechanics together.
-
NAM would actually have the storm on the kicker wave....the front runner gets ground up so much that it isn't able to sweep away the baroclinic zone with it.
-
That was the storm where it was below 0F and snowing
-
Ukie was pretty close to Euro....a little south but big QPF up to about BOS-HFD
-
06z EPS maybe looks like it has a better cluster NW than 00z? Not sure what mean QPF looks like yet, but the SLP looks slightly better. No huge changes though.
-
I crashed early last night but it seems like we’re sort of stabilized on the trends. Still a good amount of variance though.
-
Lot of confluence on GFS for 1/10. If only the main shortwave wasn’t so wrapped up to the west, it would be a huge front ender. As it is, there’s a few inches, but the magnitude of deepening to the west is inhibiting some of the best dynamics to run out ahead as often does in early-stage cyclogensis.
-
Trailing shortwave is more impressive than the front runner. If it ever sped up slightly, it would be a pretty good event. Seems to be a lot of issues identifying how much integrity each vortmax is going to have.
-
Let’s be honest, nobody is going to be super confident in plowable snowfall until we’re inside of 3 days with good model agreement. A couple cycles ago, the S and SE peeps were all worried about this being a hugger…now the worry is the opposite. Nobody really knows whether this is the “one” to be worried about or if it will bump back NW on the next cycle. But that’s life 5 days out on a storm threat.
-
18z EPS trended weaker and S but it does still have a large number of those NW lows clustered together.
-
They’ve been trending colder overall. But it’s not been a straight line trend. A bit noisy but it’s def a colder look than 48-60 hours ago. But it could easily trend warmer like the OP Euro today too. It’s 8 days away so we’re not gonna know a whole lot more until probably later this week.
-
Well to be fair, 12z showed 12+ for a chunk of SNE so 18z showing the same thing would just be continuity. If it showed 18+, my guess is most people would just say 18z is on the sauce at happy hour. We’ll know more at 00z.
-
That’s an ugly solution but there is a way to still get a decent storm if that trailer catches up like the 18z icon. Or we keep the initial s/w stronger.
-
I’m not convinced SNE is a mostly rain event yet on 1/10. Esp for interior. You gotta remember that thing is still 8 days out.
-
Wonder if some of those slower EPS members are doing the same thing.
-
Trailer s/w caught it and prolongs the event into like a 30-36 hour deal. That would be a new twist.
