ORH_wxman

Yeah I remember being really bullish in the Mar 2013 storm because of the euro and EPS. Another complex phasing interaction. Also nailed Mar 2017 when the other guidance (esp gfs) was trying to keep BOS all snow, lol.

It never lost 2013. You might be thinking of another storm. What happened is other guidance latched in but then lost it around 84h and everyone freaked out but euro came in that night and smoked us still.

On the flip side, the Euro has sometimes completely schooled guidance when it's on an island with a biggie....February 2013 blizzard comes to mind as the most ridiculous one. I think it flew solo for like 3 runs in a row. But usually you want to see at least 2-3 runs in a row. A single rogue run I don't really count. The January 2015 blizzard is prob the only one true monster in SNE I think it really struggled with to some extent in the last 15 years....but the GFS was garbage in that one too. RGEM was the one that nailed it inside of 48h.

Northern stream has been trending deeper so I think there’s a good chance we see some light snow. Chances are low for absolutely zero. But prob pretty high for C-1”. Vegas line right now might be about 1.5

Don’t bet against the euro when it comes to big dogs. Still superior on that front. Sure, maybe it fails on a few moderate events and we make fun of it, but if you’re hoping for a biggie and it says no, it’s gonna win.

Yeah. It’s pretty close imho. I think for much of the 2000s/2010s this area averaged more but the longer term means are likely very close. His area prob averaged more in the 1980s/1990s. There seemed to be a higher frequency of elevation events during that period…and then of course a really huge run for eastern MA snow weenies in the 2000s/2010s…unfortunately we started taking that run for granted and didn’t expect such fast regression the last 2-3 years.

Yeah I’d put Kevin around 60-62”. When I really studied Union CT climo back in the day, I had them pegged around 64-65” and Kevin is prob like 3-4” less than them. The spine of the hills from Union into Tolland is prob the best spot in CT for snow east of Litchfield county. The only competition might be that border area a bit north of @Ginx snewx near 700-800 feet….they do sneaky good too.

Yeah I think it was around 40 before the late 2000s/2010s run but is prob a bit higher now. Last few years are trying to push it back down, but it takes a while. Even 2021-22 was AN in SE MA while back here in the interior was slightly BN.

What’s interesting on the recent euro runs is the initial northern stream diving down through Rockies phases nicely with southern stream but that second piece further north in Canada just screams eastward even more than other guidance which is what totally screws us. It’s hard to see how the euro could be so wrong on this…but I’m giving 00z runs a chance to figure it out.

I'm hoping that with this northern stream trying to play ball on most guidance, we can get a little bump back in our favor on the southern stream and cook something up worth hyping.....my "Rule" for keeping hope alive on this threat is no regressions on any major model suite....if we can slowly trend it in our favor then we'll still be in the game. I'd like to see a more decisive move though....maybe tonight as more energy comes onshore....as @Typhoon Tip had alluded to earlier. The rest of it comes onshore 12z tomorrow....so you'd really like to see some positive moves in the next 2 on-hour runs.

We'd prob be fine with it if we already had a decent pack....but when most of us are sitting at single digit snowfall on the season with arctic airmasses and bare ground, it feels like 1985.

This run had a late N stream insert that brought it north very late....I suppose that is something to watch, but it's really only going to pay off if we can not drag the southern stream so much.

Northern stream less amped on GFS and southern stream hanging back a bit more. Can't see how this ends up being anything positive this run....but we'll see if any feature plays catch-up

I don't consider moderate (meaning over 3") as likely right now. It's certainly a possibility. But this needs more help to even get it to moderate. If we keep getting slight improvements at 00z, then I think it would start becoming more likely, but all we need a step back and we're getting nothing except maybe a C-1" deal.

All different flavors of meh/non-events on these runs. It's still close to something bigger, but we need a bump now....00z needs something notable to keep this threat alive. We're almost administering CPR here....not quite yet, but soon.

Might be more of a flaccid lower case b.

Still not gonna be good enough I don't think, but we'll see....the far northern stream over Canada is not digging quite as much which I think is important. But I do like the southern stream not dragging as much as 12z....however, in an absolute sense, it's still dragging about like what the 12z GFS had.

Still early, but yeah, that's a pretty big change on the NAM over the four corners region at 42h. A lot more northern stream digging into that region to lower heights there.

It was a thread for posting your own snowfall map predictions before the Valentines Day storm in 2007 I believe it was...back on the old EasternUsWx. The map was submitted as a serious attempt. The humor of it speaks for itself.

Here’s my forecast for the storm.

We actually achieved it in back to back years in 2019-20 and 2020-21. Both years had bigger Decembers than January. In 2019-20, December was by far the biggest month and then it went completely dead the rest of the winter. In 2020-21, February rebounded big time after a lackluster January.

If there’s one golden nugget of hope, it’s that the Euro suite is dragging the SW energy the most and it’s a known model bias for it to do so. So perhaps we may see some slightly better solutions going forward if it can “catch up” to reality…that is assuming it is dragging the energy too much. If it’s not, then we’re cooked. But if it is, then we still have a legit chance for something decent. The discouraging part is that the other guidance has been dragging the southern vort too, just not as much as the Euro.

At least we got nice trends from the JMA and NAVGEM today. Who needs the EPS?

Southern vort is pretty different. Really dragging on EPS. But yeah, if it speeds up a bit, it could theoretically come back strong.