ORH_wxman

GFS too now. Nice ending.

Both NAM and Reggie brought back the better ending in eastern areas. I’m hoping that trend is real and then some of us over interior E MA could pull double digits.

I’m sure people out there sometimes go “it’s amazing how east coast storms always seem to be modeled well and stay east coast storms and never trend back to us”. They don’t care if it’s a BGM or ORH or NYC jackpot…all the same to them. Just like for us, we don’t care if it’s Detroit, ORD or Milwaukee or Cleveland. All the same sensible wx for us on the east side.

The answer is really just simple math….a cutter 600 miles west of us can shift 200 miles and it’s still a cutter. A big snowstorm cannot.

You’re actually in a decent spot to catch any last second CCB stuff Sunday PM.

Yea it could come back. I wouldn’t favor it but it’s a plausible scenario.

Sunday PM has def trended east with CCB. Looks like the main show is the stuff before that. It still clips eastern areas Sunday afternoon with CCB but it’s not as crazy as yesterdays runs.

Stinks that the euro seems like it nailed 1/10….it also was the one that really wanted 1/7 too over a week out. Maybe it’s getting It’s mojo back. 1/10-1/17 is def cutter risk but maybe we’ll get a SWFE too around mid-month. Pattern does look to improve though later on which would fit with Nino climo anyway.

I think the early part of the storm could be pretty pasty in a lot of areas. Maybe interior high terrain it starts drying out fairly quick but lower elevations might take a while until the CCB gets cranking.

That’s actually pretty impressive for the narcan maps.

That’s an epic finish in SE MA.

Reggie shows us how to link the WAA and CCB stuff. Results in a widespread major storm. That’s kind of the optimal look.

Looks a bit less amped than 12z through 36h, so that's prob how it will play out this run....but NAM is always full of surprises the deeper into clown range you get on that model.

There's a lot of inversion to overcome in this one...even on a Euro solution the lower levels take a long time to scour out over the interior. The Cape and islands and those types of typical places look vulnerable, but it's so hard to get 50+ knots over interior like that December storm.

There;s still a very real chance that 1/10 ends up a good front ender for many....whether that's only reserved for CNE/NNE or also SNE still remains to be seen. Euro being stubborn isn't a good sign for the colder solution right now so I'd favor mostly rain for SNE, but maybe it capitulates in these next few cycles. The reason is that the biggest uncertainty seems to be what is going on up north in Quebec east of James Bay with the height field Around D4.5-D5...and that's where model error tends to be larger vs down in the lower latitudes.

Someone could see that if things work perfectly....but i agree I wouldn't forecast anyone to get that amount. But if someone inland gets both good WAA snow and then hammers in the CCB, I'd bet ratios for them could easily pop a few 18-20 burgers.....but again, thats only in an optimal scenario. I think low end warning is the way to hedge right now with maybe some 12-16 lollis.

Trailing s/w captures it just in time to give a nice CCB finish.

Depends where the snow is coming from and the cross sections....the WAA snow is prob going to be less than 10 to 1 in a lot of places in lower elevations....might be higher in the interior high terrain though. But the CCB snows if they happen will probably be better than 10 to 1 since the column just rapidly cools and temps drop into the 20s.....and as of now, it looks like excellent snow growth in the CCB.....but the question is still where the CCB occurs and how quickly it develops.

Ukie on board with the big Sunday finish. It's a little faster though....more like late morning/midday is when eastern areas get croaked instead of deeper into Sunday afternoon like the GFS

The block doesn't retrograde into an awesome spot until really post-1/17.....after that, the ensembles were going full 1978 with the arctic look (hopefully that keeps showing up), but it's still kind of precarious prior to that. The fact that the block is in the process of building/retrograding hopefully makes the corrections colder as we get closer, but I could still see a cutter in that 1/14-1/15 threat.

Yeah that 1/10-1/17 period is probably going to be key in whether this month ends up as a higher end snow month or not...and perhaps how this winter is remembered. Even if we have a blockbuster February, if we add in extra events with continuous snow cover during that 1/10-1/17 period, then it changes the whole vibe. You could honestly have 2 big warning events in that period or two giant rainy cutters.

Yeah it just rips that initial front-running s/w north into Maine with very little resistance....that causes the trailer to close off further north too. Tossed for now, but we keep an eye on that possibility. A much stronger initial s/w would make the WAA thump really good, but it would make the grand finale rtoo far northeast for most of us....mostly a Maine thing.

GFS pretty damned cold again for 1/10....GGEM warmed again, though the evolution is kind of weird....nothing like the previous two runs, so not sure what to think. ICON (if we care) cooled from 00z....though 00z was pretty torchy like the Euro.

That's like a 12/9/05-lite ending. We're getting 60+ knots inflow at 850 by Sunday PM. That's crazy.....considering it starts as light WAA 12 hours earlier.

Just gotta fire up the ARW for those. But a NAM run that gets pingers to Ray is probably due in the next 2-3 cycles.