ORH_wxman

It’s close to a straight cutter. Still enough CAD to make it a mess but one more tick and we’re just about there…you tick it a little stronger and the secondary reflection will mostly disappear and just show up as kinks in the isobars from CAD. There’s going to be CAD regardless…that happens in straight cutters frequently. Just a matter if we actually get a secondary coastal or not. If we do, then it will hold in the cold at the sfc much better. If not, lots of in-situ CAD but many will warm up to 33-35F rain even if they don’t warm sector cleanly.

Starting to look more like euro…almost straight cutter. Give it one more tick and we’re there. Rains to Maine as one man would say.

I miss the liftopia days where I could get a 2 day pass to Sunday river for like 90-100 bucks. Now you can’t even get a 1 day pass for that. Cost has gotten insane unless you live close enough for a season pass. Im still going to try and get my boys on skis before winter ends (hopefully in a couple of weekends) but I cringe at the prices now. I think Killington still has kids under 12 ski free if you get a multi-day pass for an adult but not 100% sure. They did fairly recently at least.

For those asking about the snow before it gets washed away…yes even the 06z euro dropped 3-5” across much of SNE prior to the main system getting here. But it’s gonna be gone within 18 hours once we warm sector.

I’ve seen cutters with monster blocks before. They can happen as long as you phase some TPV in there with a western trough. That’s exactly what we’re getting now.

06z euro now 979mb in upstate NY…toucans to Tolland. Ostriches to ORH.

PV will prob keep trending west and by the time we get to D3 we’ll be laughing at what was being shown a week out.

No 18z was def warmer. Primary was stronger into NY state

18z GFS is a little more amped early on and then ends up maybe slightly less so when it passes by us...kind of a similar result to 12z. On a smaller scale, it had the CF further west, so it's not crushing metrowest this run with ice, but ORH county still gets a good hit.

Yeah kind of matches my anecdotal memory to my knowledge of ice climo in central MA....feels like that CNE band that was just north of the big boy stuff in 2008 is due for a biggie. I know you studied some of this prior so was curious....thanks.

Feb '95 was pretty solid in S NH....not sure how far north the good stuff got. It wasn't historic, but a solid 3/8 to perhaps 1/2 radial ice in spots. Also had a decent icer into S NH in Jan 2007....wanna say 1/15/07 it was. But again, not sure how far north it was contaminated by IP.

Not overly exciting but may need to watch for OES pushing east to west tomorrow afternoon/evening ahead of the main system....flow comes onshore and it's pretty cold in that 900-925 range with temps between -8C and -10C in that layer....so easily supports OES ice crystals. A few spots could see a C-1" type thing.

He's hitting all the weenie benchmarks recently....tracking every HRRR run for 1-2" of slush last week and then doing the ZFP/point-click fetish for a 5-6 day storm.

CNE just got blasted in 2008 (along with parts of SNE).....I'd think that corridor from dendrite in C NH up into CAD-land in Maine is due for a big one though....they were too far north for massive ice in 2008. That area obviously got hit in 1998, but thats working on over 25 years now. That one was obviously historic, but even just a pretty nasty half-inch radial ice storm is likely overdue there. Paging @OceanStWxfor ice storm climo.

Prob take the under almost everywhere on that map. Maybe monadnocks reach 3".

Happened in the Feb 28, 1995 ice storm. We had about 3 inches on the front end of that and then a ton of ZR on top of it. If anything, I think snow would make it worse by weighting down limbs more. ZR will accrete on snow just fine.

You can’t tell people not to worry about it if everyone is actively tracking it. Otherwise we wouldn’t even bother to look beyond D7. It might come back…or it could just keep trending SE into zero because the PV overwhelmed it. There’s a reason it’s mostly useless to track this far out.

We should test it out and see if you think half an inch of ice all over everything classifies as an ice storm if there’s snow prior to it.

EPS def has plenty of Phil members for icing over interior for this weekend (and actually still has nearly 6” of snow in the mean for the pike region). Unlike the 06z run, the EPS is a bit SE of the OP run.

If it was coherent enough, it would, but it’s all about competing forces. If the mesolow is kind of weak (like on Euro) until it gets further north, then it won’t help as much in southern areas.

No, the snow is accurate. CT actually does pretty well on the front end for snow. It’s just a quick transition through sleet/ZR to rain after the initial snow while NOP keeps the ZR longer…aided by cold tuck too on mesolow.

Wide right. Close but it’s a whiff this run. OP run not useful though for 200+ hour threats.

06z was colder at the height of the storm. Not by a ton but it was a bit colder. But the 12z run did have a better shot of snow on the front end than 06z.

Still close to being parakeets…esp south of pike. I’d like to see a more subtle shift south/east with PV

Need it to cool a bit for more sleet…warms too much aloft for sleet. Want to keep that warm layer +3 or colder. Euro actually flips you to rain and then back to moderate ZR as you cold tuck…good location there for any cold tucking (really caused a lot of ZR damage back in 2008 in Essex county)