ORH_wxman

It’s really just at the sfc. Aloft and for the track the Ukie was pretty close to others but for one reason it LOVES to torch the lowest levels.

Yeah that HREF run stops at 12z Sunday so there’s more to go after that.

That’s also an extremely unstable layer above 700mb…def TSSN potential

Hopefully a hanging slider gets served up

Right around kickoff time in foxboro. Could really be a fun game to watch on TV.... Couldn't pay me to attend that game though. NAM would be a whiteout in Foxborough for a good chunk of that game. Lol

You can see how this would be an excellent look with a very active PJ but still some ridging in the west despite absolute heights being BN in BC and PAC NW

EPS is definitely a really nice look for mid-month. Let’s hope it sticks.

Might get one in this storm too. We watch…it does have implications for Sunday afternoon especially.

BOS is pretty cold at 925-950….it gets warmer down near PYM but BOS latitude might save them from white rain…it will still be pretty slushy but slushy paste beats white rain.

Jack will be somewhere in eastern ORH hills or southeastern monads. But you’re in a great spot for the low terrain jackpot. I don’t hate my spot either…a little bit of elevation and east enough to hopefully get some Sunday afternoon goodies.

I’ve noticed in recent years the euro can sometimes be too cold aloft within 36 hours on marginal situations with elevated warm layers. The mesoscale models seem to sniff those out a little better….but I largely agree the euro is still extremely useful close in. It’s near-term reputation also took a bad hit during the Jan 2015 blizzard debacle in NYC…and it’s kind of never recovered to its previous reputation.

You def keep some pack on a 12z euro solution. Your area never truly warm sectors. You get kind of a contaminated one in the 40s for a time but the real dewy 50s stuff is shunted east by that point.

Yeah they eventually mix but they avoid the warm torch and they get smoked with a good front ender. Good meaty base for sledding country…hopefully it trends more that way in future runs.

I already wrote Hunchie’s Sunday evening post: “Got 13.5”….surprised it was that much”

That was a lot thumpier for NNE than previous Euro runs. Wolfie will rejoice at the N Maine depiction where they stay all snow.

GEFS def trended toward EPS today in the long range…but still not fully there. I think that’s going to be crucial if we want a nice period mid-month into MLK week. Otherwise we might just be waiting for MJO to cruise back into phase 7 and beyond late in the month.

Def showed potential for some nice bands regenerating Sunday in eastern areas. I love my old stomping ground in this event…Winter hill in ORH with that elevation and east exposure is gonna clean up with the easterly flow in the BL above the surface. But I think even here should do quite well with easterly flow. Just wish I had a bit more than 350-400 feet of elevation to help. Could be some CF enhancement for a time on Sunday too as that temp gradient tightens before collapsing SE....esp up by Ray

Ray jackpot on euro? Hangs back steady light stuff in eastern areas too well into early evening

Lol I remember when Pete Bouchard defended your measurement on the air in that storm. Was a cool gesture by him…but he explained that the depth was totally consistent with the 6-hourly measurement when you had fluffy dendrites like that.

Also a pretty huge difference between EPS and GEFS. GEFS don’t ever really show a good pattern and reloads the big western Canada PV type pattern at the end of its run. The EPS seems to have a lot more El Niño influence and doesn’t have that. It also retrogrades the NAO block better. But there’s differences in the N PAC too…it has a low out in the GOA underneath the EPO/WPO block (seen below)

Just look at the NAO region. If we don’t retrograde that block like the GGEM shows, then we’re gonna be be a cutter-happy pattern where maybe we squeeze out a SWFE if we get a well-timed high, but largely a much more hostile pattern. The NAO is the key to having a good mid-month pattern. Models have been flip-flopping on that block….I’m not going to be optimistic until there is good agreement it retrogrades. If you can retrograde it well west like that, then it’s a really good pattern. Otherwise we’re probably gonna be much warmer and on the wrong side of a lot of systems.

Yeah gonna be too light over interior.

Can’t wait for him to melt over getting 11” when I put up a 14 spot.

I really don’t need to lose power. But there’s def like a 1 in 3 shot I do. Hopefully we’re able to turn the flow more NNE faster so that we don’t have as much 31-32F paste.

You’re in a great spot for this storm. You might not jackpot but you’re gonna be in one of the higher zones. You also have good wiggle room for any last second trends.