ORH_wxman

Also we have that decent high to the north…something we couldn’t buy to save our lives last winter…so even though the wind is still off the water for the coast with the somewhat tucked low track, that high is helping to funnel in lower dewpoint air which acts to help keep it cooler just off the deck with evaporational cooling/wetbulbing.

It helps to look just off the deck. So often last year we had like 0C to -1C at 925mb. This is significantly colder so that modeled warm layer is very shallow right near the sfc…that’s often a good signal that you’ll accumulate a lot easier at 32-33 than if you’re already dealing with waterlogged melting aggregates.

Emergency meeting for an excommunication?

Yeah the post count is going to look like a sine wave most likely if ensemble guidance is any indication. Very little during the snowstorm and then a big spike during the cutter (perhaps two if 1/13 cuts) then back down again as pattern really goes colder with potential snow threats. We’ll return for verification in a couple weeks.

Anyone should’ve seen this whiff coming from days away based on that 250mb jet streak map. We’re a bunch of idiots.

Krafty finish too. That’s a big hit

Nice runs overall overnight. 3k NAM went wild for eastern areas too. Seems like the onset has slowed down a bit since yesterday. Much if CT waits until late evening (maybe closer to mid-evening in far sw zones)…except still gotta watch that weird OES type look for northeast MA/SE NH a bit earlier.

That’s a nice stinger for E MA on Sunday afternoon. Seems like all the models are showing that at 00z so far. Could be brief blizzard conditions with a flash freeze temp crash. There aren’t a ton of situations that ever happens…the ones I can think of are 12/9/05, 3/8/05 and maybe 2/2/15 near BOS for places that were east of the CF…then it crashed to like 12F with blizzard conditions that afternoon/evening,lol. I don’t think this one will be as bad as those examples but it’s something to watch. Can’t rule out a really nasty 3-4 hour period.

Oof…not sure why I missed that. I just assumed it was a r/s line.

Toss that ptype shading.

A foot of snow on Belichick’s noggin Sunday?

That H5 depiction at 42 is pretty nice. Gotta be some -EPV in that sucker.

Boredom’s while we wait for the NAM

Has a nice stinger Sunday though, lol

The initial CF isn’t that strong. But it becomes ridiculous by Sunday midday. Here’s 1pm on Sunday on 18z euro..:this is where the potential big bust could happen…you get 40-50 knots of inflow slamming into that CF and someone could pound like crazy for 2-4 hours

If you’re getting big omega, you might do fine anyway. Get those massive aggregates as 32-33F that drop 4-6” in 6 hours. At least it’s going to be fun to track.

Yeah i was thinking more BDR might struggle. HVN has some sneaky latitude compared to further SW. But even for BDR it’s admittedly close. But given the marginal BL, could still be a big elevation gradient there

I feel like down there we might get the classic Merritt gradient on the thump. Coast could get mostly sloppy slush while those hills along the Merritt pull 6” of paste during the thump.

Yeah keep that trend going and then we can honk for the 1/14-1/22 period. But def high stakes until then…hopefully it doesn’t revert.

I’d stick to near 10 to 1 for interior. Near the coast I’d go less. It’s possible that higher terrain in ORH county or SNH get more like 12 to 1 or even slightly better depending on snow growth.

I mean, you dont need to rely on it for warning criteria there imho. I think you’re already in the 6-8” range from the initial thump….the Kraft finish is what will decide whether you get 8-10 or 12-16. If it’s kind of disorganized and too late, you prob only add a couple inches of powder. But if it cranks for 4-6 hours then you’re adding another 6”

Ran the 18z euro from my basement. Jackpot from 495 region here to ORH up to Ray’s hood

This is just an ensemble mean. So I think you’d have plenty of members that have some oscillations in the severity of the PV press and the blocking itself. But my biggest worry is still too much PV loaded into the western half of Canada…id prefer a good chunk of it to break off and park itself in eastern Canada so we can have a good source of cold and confluence.

This run is mainly NNE. But there’s a chance it could still produce in SNE but it needs more work. 12z Euro actually had SNE in some front end snow.

North shore could get 3-6 just from Sunday PM from CCB when temps are crashing. Big bust potential up there.