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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that was a quick spike. Maybe we can shoot it to a new high if it has some momentum. Bz is down near -45 right now too.
  2. ORH_wxman
    I remember in Mar ‘97 when I would go to my cousins’ place in Princeton you could see the tail going almost halfway across the sky. It was awesome. Back down in Worcester the light pollution made it only a very short tail.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Link I posted earlier updates fairly quickly. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity.html someone may have an even better one. If they do they should post it.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Kp index falling quickly again. Hopefully next wave hits once it’s really dark.
  5. ORH_wxman
    I feel like it’s gonna be hit or miss for a while. The skies are def looking decent facing northeast right now here but there’s still a lot of crap around in all other directions.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Should be able to see it as long as you aren’t in downtown I think and the clouds cooperate. Kp is 9 now with a Bz of -43. I’ve never seen those numbers before since I started following loosely in the early 2000s.
  7. ORH_wxman
    These numbers are crazy. Numbers aside, I don’t think I’ve seen the auroral oval this far south on their maps.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Not sure I’ve seen these numbers happen at night since October 2003. Did we achieve this in Nov 2006? My memory is hazy from that event but I feel like it was a bit short. I remember not seeing anything in ‘06 but I could see it pretty easily in 2003.
  9. ORH_wxman
    This site seems to be pretty updated. If someone has a better tracking site then post in here. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity.html From my amateur knowledge on this you want big Kp (usually over Kp of 6 gives us a chance) and big negative Bz values. I’m not sure how much the other stuff matters but maybe it does.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Bz at -25 too.....you know this is going to line up perfect and then we're gonna get stuck in clouds.
  11. ORH_wxman
    I don’t have fancy camera pics like some here but it was incredible. Went up to my cousin’s in south Burlington to see it. Got this cell phone pic on Megan’s phone (my phone camera is worse than hers) Problem with the cell phone pics is that even a sliver of light around the edges gets dispersed out on the picture to make it look a lot brighter and thicker than it is.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Might be some stuff that rotates down overnight depending on which model to believe.
  13. ORH_wxman
    5.5” on winter hill in ORH.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Sleet is in Holliston. I’ll report form winter hill at some pint probably.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Starting to get scalped here. Pinging picked up big time in the past 10 min
  16. ORH_wxman
    Yes. I think the western ULL ended up overpowering some of the height bulges out to the east that we were seeing yesterday on some runs. It’s a bit less prominent today so it’s taking longer for the storm to turn the mid-level winds easterly…and as you said, pretty hard to get monster totals when you are relying too much on WAA precip. Someone a little further north may benefit more though. I wouldn’t mind being near my summer vacation spot on Moose Pond in Denmark for this one. Pleasant Mountain FTW
  17. ORH_wxman
    The H7 warm front lifts north relatively quickly once it gets established over SNE. Some of the better runs yesterday we’re trying to stall it for a few hours which is how you get 20-burgers there but that seems unlikely now as it doesn’t slow down until near S ME/NH border. But yeah, if you can flash to parachutes by 03-04z, then you’ll have a path to warning criteria snow.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Trying to flip the pike region to snow around 06-07z. Warm layer really tries to wash out. I’m skeptical but big lift can do the trick sometimes. Esp if it’s in the DGZ where it will enhance latent cooling.
  19. ORH_wxman
    NAM had a much higher area of 2”+ QPF over maine and SE NH and far NE MA. Euro had a small bullseye. They weren’t too dissimilar further west though.
  20. ORH_wxman
    It’s been that way for several runs now for the most part since yesterday. Might be a red flag. But it basically has no agreement from other guidance.
  21. ORH_wxman
    They run it off Ray’s computer.
  22. ORH_wxman
    I think I’d hedge mostly sleet there based on guidance trends overnight. It’ll change to snow but I think the meat of the QPF is going to be a lot of sleet and mixed crud.
  23. ORH_wxman
    18z Euro seems kind of flaccid on QPF compared to other guidance. Really nothing over about an inch and a half for the frozen zones with lots of 1.2ish totals.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Yeah and I think we’ll have a decent idea by tomorrow afternoon if it’s likely or not. I am assuming the differences in model guidance right now will try to converge a little more…or we’ll either see one last bump south or north in these next couple cycles. If it bumps south, then it’s easily game-on for you, if it bumps north, game over. Status quo? You might be nowcasting.
  25. ORH_wxman
    18z GFS is just bonkers between 06z and 12z for extreme NE MA and SE NH. Like 3 hourly QPF of around an inch between 06z and 09z in Essex county and Rockingham county. That’s one way to overcome elevation deficiency.
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