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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Only thing we don’t have is a good antecedent airmass (surprise!) but obviously a big dynamic system could overcome that. Airmass could improve some as we get closer….the setup could look a bit different. People will have to remember this is D7-8
  2. ORH_wxman
    Euro def starting to look more interesting for something higher end….long time to go obviously but good to see many of the pieces in place
  3. ORH_wxman
    Euro ticked north again. 1-2” from much of the southern half of CT
  4. ORH_wxman
    ha…TTs of 55. Could get thundersnow on that sounding. Nothing else supports that look though so I’m expecting it to disappear as we get closer.
  5. ORH_wxman
    That def a bit more interesting with a ULL that deep on the GFS. That threat is still a long ways out so there is time for it to look a lot more threatening. Keeping expectations low but there is longwave support for something.
  6. ORH_wxman
    GFS looks good for an inch or two for southern half of CT…there’s actually a decent little area of H7 fronto that clips LI and the south coast so can’t rule out a little band that drops 3”+ lollis if that ends up verifying.
  7. ORH_wxman
    You are not going to have to worry about arctic Coke lines in the 2/24 threat. That is a pretty marginal airmass imho. Decent chance we get rain out of it too.
  8. ORH_wxman
    3k gives far SW CT a couple inches tomorrow AM. Def worth watching there.
  9. ORH_wxman
    “Sneaky pattern for NNE/upslope areas” i mentioned yesterday. There’s more in the pipeline up there over the next few days. Another clipper there Sunday/Sunday night and then maybe a weak disturbance wed/Thu
  10. ORH_wxman
    There’s def some big hits on the EPS individual members but there’s plenty of northing too and a few rain events as well. Hopefully that threat becomes a bit more coherent.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Wow nice. Maybe a quarter inch in Holliston. We got one of the thinnest parts of the band…typical.
  12. ORH_wxman
    That’s like an hour in this winter. Beggars can’t be choosers.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the band looks nice but it’s moving. Was thinking a few spots may get 2” but that looks like a heavy lift pike south. Looks a little healthier up north of rt 2.
  14. ORH_wxman
    The problem is mechanics in the flow. It’s a rounded trough base and fast flow. That is plenty to “keep it from coming north”. If we can sharpen the shortwave with a slightly stronger vort, then that’s one way, but otherwise most of us are prob just getting some flakes and maybe a dusting. I’d def keep an eye on it down in southern zones though.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Good thing the snow tonight isn’t about 4-5 hours earlier. That would’ve been a disaster for evening commute. It’s not a lot of snow but it looks like it could rip for an hour or two which will def mess up the roads.
  16. ORH_wxman
    It’s got steady light snow at least into southern half of CT. It does have measurable up into MA but a bit more skeptical of that actually being more than just flurries or a few snow showers. If it ticks north again, then it would be worthy of a deeper look.
  17. ORH_wxman
    The trough position is pretty favorable for our area but the base it just a bit rounder/diffuse. If we sharpen that little vort near Philly a bit more, then there could be a decent stripe of moderate snows over southern CT/RI. Wouldn’t take much. I’d need more up this way…but even as is, I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a steady light mood snow across a chunk of the area on Saturday predawn/Saturday morning.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Euro getting a little more interesting for Saturday in southern zones.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I’d agree on that. We haven’t had a lot of dryness out there since the early 2010s. We had some good heat domes move over the top those years. I think ORH got 96 one of those years. (Maybe 2011) Certainly a dry winter helps start the process since you basically get very little melting runoff in the spring with those warm/dry winters.
  20. ORH_wxman
    We need a central US drought to help give us a good source region for extreme heat on max temps in the summer…and then get the pattern to evolve in a manner where it advects into us instead of getting shunted south of NYC. I don’t think we’ve had a good one a while…we’ve been abnormally wet over the CONUS
  21. ORH_wxman
    Semi interesting for south coast. Esp in CT. It’s be surprised if we got much of anything except a few flakes further north. Maybe your area can grab a dusting. Tonight is more interesting for most of us.
  22. ORH_wxman
    I mean, the longwave pattern is ripe during that time which is why we were interested it in even back to last week. Sucks we can’t get any timing right. But that’s how you go from a mere subpar winter to a rat. You miss on your windows of opportunity.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I just posted that after you…there’s just a weak wave down south…I was hoping to see something stronger in that period. A northern stream insert would’ve helped too.
  24. ORH_wxman
    What sucks for the 2/20 period is that the southern stream temporarily decided to go quite when we have the big PV sitting just to our north. In El Niño, once you have a PV to our north, you often get the big dog when the STJ amplifies into it…but instead, we have very little southern stream action until a few days later…which may produce something in the 2/23-24 timeframe but it’s more precarious by that point.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Glad we don’t live there…
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