ORH_wxman

Yeah this is the type of storm where if it comes close, you’re more worried about midlevels versus low levels. Let’s lay down some good pack in this one in preparation for the 1/20 HECS.

00z eps still had some nice hits though they were certainly more tame than the 18z eps. 06z eps come out in about 20-25 min

Having the EPS solidly NW of the OP is kind of a big tell imho. I think there’s a good chance we’ll least see something from this system even if it’s not a direct major hit…though that is certainly still on the table too.

18z EPS a nice bump NW. Lot of good hits in there

We had 20” in ORH in ‘93 storm but it was a local max. Very few spots in New England even got 2 feet. The largest area of 2 feet in New England is almost certainly Feb ‘69 and Feb ‘13 was pretty impressive too. I’d say 2013 even outdid 1978 in New England as a whole for aerial coverage of 24”+. If we want to include March 1888 then that is right up there with Feb ‘69.

Jan 2015 blizzard didn’t do much over the rest of the northeast outside of central/eastern New England and Long Island.

Don’t fear the sleet…I’d take half a foot of thump and then an inch of sleet to solidify the pack for the cold week in the wake of that system. Not that it’s going to be the final solution so it’s all just fodder. EPS at 18z will be interesting to see if they come NW too. OP run was probably out to lunch given the ensembles were mostly NW of the OP run.

EPS still dabbling in 1/19-20 threat

Yes it’s a bit wide right but not a total miss. Not necessarily the worst spot at D5.

Yeah this does not look like the OP run

Don’t think we ever had more than about 29-30” OTG even though the storm total was 33”.

You measure it but it’s understood that you aren’t measuring everything that falls. Like some of the more sheltered spots not far below the summit in Tuckermans or other basins prob get 400” while summit MWN is pulling 275” because you’re losing a bunch of snow to blow-off.

That might have been before all the kegstands in college. Now i just merely have my memory

Yeah I didn't include 1993 since I was only really listing since 2000....we were close to 30" depth that month too in ORH, but never topped it. Hard to do late season (unless it's March 2001, lol....that year was on another level).

We never had a look like that though in 2016 (and not to my knowledge in 1983 either)....even leading into the blizzard, there was a huge GOA low which is quite common in super ninos. We did have the big NAO block, but the PAC on the models looks like a weak Nino or maybe moderate....huge GOA low still absent. Something we haven't been able to get all winter in any sort of sustained capacity. Maybe it shows up in February.

Yeah getting past 30" is always tough, though we managed to do it several times in the 2000-2015 period....March 2001 over the interior was the first one (1996 if we want to include a few years earlier), then we did it again in early Feb 2011, then we managed to do it again in March 2013 (but not on the coastal plain), then of course Feb 2015. Years like Jan/Feb 2005 got "stuck" around 27-30", ditto 2007-08, Jan 2009, Feb 2014, Mar 2018, and we fell a little short of that number in Feb 2021 (more like 23-24" depth)

Looks like some legit airmasses around for these threats at least. Those curtains of snow remind me of right before we went to town in Dec '92 and later on in Oct 2009....you saw the curtains of snow just off the deck and they'd mix in with gusts of wind and then retreat back up a few hundred feet. Usually you flip within an hour or two in that scenario but it's torture if that happens all day.

Not terrible for the D10 signal either at this range

Really nice run for the SE peeps who need to play a little catchup. But everyone gets something this run and plenty of arctic cold.

The 1/19 system has a rapidly building western ridge with it....so I would keep an eye out on that one potentially ramping up into something bigger....but I'd agree if we're going for the full I-95 KU kill-shot, then it's probably likely to happen when that PV moves closer to the 50/50 position and we get some sort of PAC firehose southern stream vort trying to slam up into it. I don't know if we'll get that shot, but conceptually that would be more classical than trying to use a PV lobe itself....those tend to be more New England-centric as redevelopers.

Pattern of yore on the Euro today....moderate coastal followed by arctic cold, then a clipper-esque system into that arctic airmass for 1/19

Yeah that's all fronto stuff....it's pretty strong though, so it squeezes out warning criteria in that band on both models. I think if we are able to sort of curl that vort in underneath it at the last second then we could get a psuedo-CCB feature to enhance the fronto stuff. Right now, the vort is a bit sheared, but if it stays a bit more consolidated, then it can have a little higher potential....however, we walk the happy medium....you don't want it too strong too early or you get some track issues.

Don't think the Euro is going to be as amped as 00z looking at the CONUS pattern at 108h.

Judge it against winter climo IMHO....that's how I do it. Sure, I'd love 80-100 days of continuous pack but that only happens like once every 1-2 decades here so trying to aim for that is going to cause a failing grade most winters.....realistically climo is going to be around 50-60 days here (and hopefully a stretch of 30 in a row at some point), prob closer to 70-80 in ORH hills and 30-40 along the coast near BOS and south shore (and less down near cape and south coast).

1960s were the coldest winter decade here in the past 110 years....you have to go back to the 1910s to find a colder decade of winters. Not gonna happen again any time soon.