ORH_wxman

Lol at the CF on the ICON.....I put the mouse over about Tip's location near 495 there....12F while its above freezing just E of 128

Def helping the snowfall mean this far out...mean at BOS is about 6" for that storm.

EPS mean matches OP pretty well for snowfall on this one. 5-6" for Pike region up to near Rt 2....6-7" for north of Rt 2....about 4" for most of CT/N RI. 3" for south coast.

Got up to 36F but it's actually dropped to 35F last hour. "Cold tuck" as secondary passes by....it's just not very different from the current temps....we aren't going from 36 to 28 on this.

No, that's for Sunday

Check in on Sunday morning to see if this is still interesting.

That’s a pretty solid net-gainer on euro. 5-6” in pike region and then struggles to ever crack freezing (prob stays below freezing N of pike and outside of 495 that run) Would be nice to get one more tick colder though.

CLose call though

Canadain looks maybe a touch warmer than 00z, but still pretty similar in that it keeps the primary to PA before it redevelops eastward....keeps the pike region sleet kind of like 00z. Def on the colder side of guidance

WE had one (1037 N of CAR) in today's event but the primary was back so far west and no good vort to the east....can't win even when we have some features in place.

The CAD is really strong despite the track though....not sure it ever gets above freezing in ORH.

I wasn't buying the flatter solutions really unless they got inside 36 hours.

Primary strong and west too...this is a bad run. Trying to trend back to yesterday's 12z.

GFS is going to be north of 06z i think...PV up north is a bit west....although the second PV lobe to our northeast is slightly pressed vs 06z, so it might try to battle with the other one.

RGEM is a pretty big thump for pike...around 6"

Snow thump was kind of flaccid on the NAM....but honestly, if you got anything over 2" i'd think it's a net-gainer with that sfc track. 34F and rain isn't going to do much damage. Hope for more like 3-4" with a sfc reflection going SE and you'll be good. But if we start shaving the amounts on the front end and sneak some upper 30s/low 40s into the picture, then it changes.

At least it's a net-gainer for many. Keep that secondary reflection southeast and I'll be happy.

Def chekc above H85 in this setup....warm layer is going to be very elevated....750-800mb range.

Def some sleet for him too....sneaky 800mb warm layer.

You need a lot of time above 36-37F or so to start denting the pack when you’re socked in clouds and precip like today. Otherwise it will mostly just absorb the extra water when it’s mid-30s and not melt off much. Far southern and southeastern areas that spend a chunk of the afternoon above 40F will lose some (prob not enough to wipe it out) but it will probably be fairly minimal elsewhere. Anyways, this weekends storm can still turn to mostly shit…if we reverse the overnight trend then it’s back to where we were yesterday at 12z.

I stayed in the teens for most of that storm. Think I topped out in low 20s. This one won’t be as cold but there could be a sneaky very high-gradient CF up near your area.

About 1.5”…now just absorbing precip. Makes for good piles though

Yeah 06z was a nice hit here for front end snow. Never gets ORH above freezing either. Just need to not regress on the overnight trends at 12z….small wobbles are fine but noticeable jumps will have a hit impact.

Euro was about 6” on the front end for the pike region before it flips.

If you can get an inch of QPF as ice, that will cause some pretty serious damage. It won’t be 2008, but you can accrete 4 tenths or even half an inch of radial ice. Typically 3/8ths when you really start ramping up the power outages. I agree half an inch of QPF as ice wouldn’t get it done. That would be under a quarter inch radial and probably keep power issues to a minimum. It’s def better to lean in the conservative direction when QPF isn’t super robust.