Jump to content

ORH_wxman

Moderator Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    91,331

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Looks like CF is right near 128 maybe a little inside 128 once north of pike. We’ll see how this moves during the day. Could be meaningful early on.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Ripping fatties and sticking quickly in this convective looking stuff
  3. ORH_wxman
    Mesos def cooled overnight. 06z NAM was still a bit warm b but other guidance went colder. Gonna be an interesting forecast for the N&W of 495/90 area.
  4. ORH_wxman
    lol, where you are? I woulda waited. You were so close even on some of the torchier runs.
  5. ORH_wxman
    That was a pretty cold GFS run. A lot of snow in 495 region. Skeptical given the mesos but we’ll see if they cool at all.
  6. ORH_wxman
    ORH is 30/5 right now....you wouldn't think low levels would be a problem less than 18 hours from now with that type of dewpoint look....while ORH might be ok, not too far away won't be. Not the same setup, but that kind of turnaround reminds me of the 1/27-28/94 storm. @Typhoon Tipalways talks about that one....we started the night before around 0F and predawn of the storm was like 8F with snow grains and by late evening, we were 50F+ with steaming snow banks.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Well not all systems are gonna have the marginal thermal profiles that we see tomorrow...no guarantees, but the larger scale layout for next week looks a lot colder. We have climo working in our favor too as we go deeper into December. Originally, we weren't expecting anything for 12/2 (we kept saying it looks better after about 12/3ish), but then this system kind of snuck into a colder airmass about a week ago on guidance...so we were hoping to score a bonus event early.
  8. ORH_wxman
    GFS looking better for the 12/10-12/12 period...there's a couple of shortwaves in there....and those won't be figured out until later, but good things happen when we amplify that western ridge a bit like on the 18z run.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Hoping model guidance underestimates the density of this cold dome over us tonight...could a make a difference when we're talking like 1C in the BL. Guess we'll see on the 00z and 06z runs.
  10. ORH_wxman
    EPS is def more aggressive than other guidance trying to get a few inches in here on Saturday. A potential bigger threat would be middle of next week around the 10th-11th....but that one is all over the place. Lets see if we can amplify that ridge a little more out west....because we have a nice -NAO and some low heights in SE Canada which bodes well for actually trying to hold a high in place.
  11. ORH_wxman
    NAM coming in a little flatter so far than 12z
  12. ORH_wxman
    It’s def had a cold bias in the medium range the last few years. It especially does when we’re talking these SWFE or WAA type storms. The old euro actually had a slight warm bias in the medium range but it was still the best model by a lot.
  13. ORH_wxman
    One more tick warmer and the evening commute will be fine too across even interior SNE north of pike.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that’s further SE than pivotal by a decent amount. Sv is awful.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Euro a slight tick warmer than 06z...matches GFS basically.
  16. ORH_wxman
  17. ORH_wxman
    He's prob toast too if I'm toast. We need a little trend back between now and tomorrow but that becomes less and less likely as you get closer to verification. Models are more likely to be correct when they shift the closer we are to an event.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Yeah rates def not quite as good as 06z. I think I'm pretty much toast here. Winter hill might do really well still as long as we don't get a zonked NAM look.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Was gonna say i was surpsied to see GFS might actually look a tick flatter through 18h
  20. ORH_wxman
    Messenger shuffle would happen between now and go time...usually inside 24h. The lack of the high pressure even sort-of holding on probably will sink us again....it's been a killer for like 4 winters now. Cannot buy a high to even try and hold on.
  21. ORH_wxman
    ICON warmed a good bit too...not as crazy as NAM, but a solid tick. 12z runs are definitely seeing something so far. RGEM looked a little warmer too, but a very small amount vs 06z.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Unless this ends up as a total model failure inside of 30 hours, you're pretty much a lock for 8"+
  23. ORH_wxman
    Looks like those NAM runs from like 4 or 5 cycles ago. Not the ones that brought mixing to dendrite ,but maybe those runs just after that where it was still bring it to the NH border pretty easily.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Fundamentally handling the vort differently this run....keeping it strong into N Ohio....it's gonna be a warm/zonked run.
  25. ORH_wxman
    NAM is gonna be more amped than 06z just based on 12 hour panel.
×
×
  • Create New...