baltosquid

It was probably the wettest at 00z. Wetter than the NAM and the globals by a tenth of an inch QPF or more! sure, every model has been busted by the upside here to an extent but HRRR was definitely ahead of the curve before game time

Do we have to congratulate the HRRR? I feel like while other models were keying in on the h5 stuff being better for us (commendably), the HRRR was the only one willing to ALSO bump the QPF towards 4 AND keep it there for a wide swathe of the forum. Also seems to be really keen on the wrap around.

Snow has dialed back to light after steady moderate stuff for the last hour plus. Looks like it’s about to backfill on the radar though! Already have refreshed and exceeded snowpack from early week. Don’t have a clean surface to check accurately but given that milestone, it’s gotta be 2+ already. I want a death band later today to push 5-6 for the storm!

I'm gonna hop in bed with the ukie

Could get some sort of frozen out of this. Would be messy.

3k looks real nice on the wrap around snow.

Conditional Symmetric Instability? At this time of year? At this time of day? In the Mid Atlantic? Localized entirely on Mt PSU?

I take back everything I have said or even thought about the HRRR model. It is a precious thing. They should run it out to 30 days.

First closure casualty tomorrow: APG. I think they’re going for a more proactive look after not even mentioning the MLK storm until… Tuesday. To delay Wednesday…

Really just want to see one more QPF bump… we got some great changes to area of snowfall at 12z but now what would really complete the enhancement would be everyone tacks on a smidge more precip.

GEM is a tick south with QPF range but pretty damn close to a hold.

Feel like GFS looked like a better run in most everything save for moisture (lost some upside but wider coverage). If it comes in even a little wetter with that expanded area we should all be happy. Feel like we’ll be fighting with dry slots.

Think you accidentally grabbed the forecast loop not the trend loop

RGEM is moister. Mostly a 1-2 affair with some (near) 3s, wider than 06z. No NAM, but good to see other models latching on to a QPF bump.

“H5 pass greatly improved surface could be even better, lagged a bit, FOLKS” let’s do this, dawn of the final day!

3km paints a nice stripe through central and northern MD (kuchera)

Huge improvement to QPF and range of that QPF! Last minute trend in progress? Or just a characteristic NAM spasm?

Euro 3” for Baltimore would be great all things considered. Would refresh the snowpack to where it was just after the storm over the weekend and probably stick very easily given the chilled surfaces - probably even more of a transit issue than the MLK storm despite the lower totals. Also factor in timing. Lock it in!

I already have of course. But it DID work last time!

Same playbook as last time - watch those mesos and keep up hope they’ll lead the globals from here on. And watch returns upstream for how things verify leading in.

So, if one of the more knowledgeable people here is able to help out - this sounding here from NAM, in Baltimore during what appears to be best reflectivity: Contrary to yesterday's storm, flakes should be healthier IF this was to pass? Feels like only thing keeping it from being an even bigger surprise was getting pixie dust most of the time. I am under the impression deflection of the dewpoint at a layer would be a dryslot, and it looks better here - or am I looking in the wrong place? Also I'm sure soundings are far too early at this point for the NAM but trying to learn!

Surely the NAM will score another victory and give us more surprise WSWs!

Is it reasonable to turn some of this into snow again? HRRR suggests the warm nose should shrink and it's already quite small...

Measured on various deck surfaces in Canton. I've got ~4.5", would not be surprised if someone with a proper setup and regular clears sniffs 5. Also should mention some audible pingers in the last few minutes.

This looks a frame from pre-storm for many!