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baltosquid

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Everything posted by baltosquid

  1. baltosquid
    Was a big tick S though. Hopefully just coming on board late...
  2. baltosquid
    Should note on the above HREF panels though, a good chunk of that improvement is due to the WRF-ARW and WRF-NSSL at 00z. They were QUITE aggressive with things... easily could be off on a crazy tangent.
  3. baltosquid
    HREF ensemble jumped south quite a bit at 00z. Signals some nice rates after the changeover.
  4. baltosquid
    Dry slot on 01z HRRR messes up the transition period, doubt something like that is going to get modeled just as it really ends up but something to watch. If the best opportunity for column cooling rates gets wasted by a dry slot, many will end up with little to nothing.
  5. baltosquid
    0.1 - 0.2QPF/hr at 8am along 95. If that's snow... yikes.
  6. baltosquid
    Why use third party model aggregator when decrepit government page do trick?
  7. baltosquid
    Just keep your fingers crossed that the trend is our friend here. Some American mesos jumped on it big time - could equally be an overcommit that gives way to the more modest adjustment south other models have conceded so far, or… the concessions will continue and we get whacked for commutageddon once again. I mean, we ALL know around here that the last minute south trend is a fixture of our storms, since about… a month ago.
  8. baltosquid
    The GEFS seemed to hang on to the southern track far longer than the op. Seemed sus at first but turning out different now…
  9. baltosquid
    Wow. Absolutely clobbered in the second phase of the storm on HRRR. Have to echo the worries w/ regards to a weaker verification though - have to hope we stay in the Goldilocks zone of weak enough to stay on the south track, but strong enough to get us those eye watering rates on the back end.
  10. baltosquid
    So you’re telling me the ingredients for a big storm are going to come together right as I have an international flight lined up? This hobby…
  11. baltosquid
    If PD is the timeframe can we delay til like, just AFTER PD? Only a few days! I will be out of the country. I guess that might guarantee a KU…
  12. baltosquid
    Coming fresh off two events that looked lost only days before, to reel in even snow tv from this would be nice. Would make 3 consecutive events coming our way late despite some difficulties, which is nice to see. Not a weenie friendly event but hey, if we catch some flakes and a dusting right in the middle of the supposed DOOOOOOOM warmth then I think we're doing alright! A longer shot here in Baltimore than elsewhere but still worth keeping an eye on if you maintain the right level of emotional investment.
  13. baltosquid
    I kind of fear that there's gonna be an inevitable TPV lobe intruding on that progression that makes it cut.
  14. baltosquid
    Streamer flakes are big!
  15. baltosquid
    Rates picking up again in Canton, but flakes not as big as earlier band yet.
  16. baltosquid
    HRRR, after being one of the more bullish models for QPF last night, is now apparently discounting this big band we've got forming... hopefully more upside awaits.
  17. baltosquid
    With the snow on snow, this will easily be the deepest I've ever seen snow in Baltimore (moved just before the March warning event). Might even pass that single event total with today's event if we keep booming, but it will be close!
  18. baltosquid
    If the coastal gets going and the banding is good, maybe. Certainly going to be someone enjoying some wraparound fluff in the early afternoon.
  19. baltosquid
    That eastern band is no joke. Rolled through here and brought the best snow I've seen in years. Enjoy, NE crew/Eastern shore.
  20. baltosquid
    I want the whole frigid 8 inches.
  21. baltosquid
    Wish my phone could even partially capture the increasing rates. Still haven't plateaued. This band has the goods.
  22. baltosquid
    That band over Baltimore is doing work now! Was impatiently looking out on the deck and seeing light snow for a few minutes but now the snow is falling MUCH harder and with MUCH better flakes!
  23. baltosquid
    Flakes trying to get bigger in Baltimore. Radar has some brighter greens filling in along 95 to the SW that are heading this way!
  24. baltosquid
    Picking up in Canton. Need that band to fill in just a bit more to the south and we're really cooking. Moderate with a mix of flake sizes, mostly smaller (but bigger than last storm's pixie dust) but some bigger ones in there too.
  25. baltosquid
    Also should shoutout the UKMET which put out a big run for central MD at 00z.
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