baltosquid

ECMWF took a step in the wrong direction for the northeast.

EPS 06z still seems unconvinced by the extreme eastward camp, a touch NW for the low 13 hours before game time. Clustered well around the middle of the Dakotas, nothing east of the Mississippi per lows shown on TT. Hoping the GEFS and GEPS drop their eastern extreme members and cave…

Alright the models need to quit it with that low barging into the lakes or we’re going to have trouble

2024 Eclipse Forecasts (ou.edu) If you go to "Ensemble Forecasts" here, GEFS and EPS have the Downward Shortwave (solar was my mistake) Radiation plots. The GEFS has it because its cloud plot is extremely overdone, and the EPS has it because it does not have a dedicated cloud product otherwise. Tomer Burg goes into how and why he did it here in this thread: https://x.com/burgwx/status/1774231279523021285?s=20

Latest GEFS seems to set up the nailbiter - lots of variance on how the northern low sets up if you look at the member MSLP chart. Just hoping it can't nudge into the ridge so much and set up on the lakes as one camp of members suggests...

Use the downward solar radiation plot for the GEFS/GFS - it's available on Tomer's site! Tomer Burg uses that to address the GFS and its ensembles having a huge cloud bias. Just compare the GFS and CMC 24 hours out on pivotal on the cloud map, or the GEFS vs GEPS... GFS/GEFS is crazy. Now, for Texas right now that's little comfort as it does not improve the picture much. But much of the path fares better.

Slight concern though... I hope the high doesn't trend too far north and let something sneak underneath into the lakes region... that's what I'd be most afraid of.

Not ready to put any faith in cloud maps. Willing to use precip as a bit of a proxy for "is it even worth getting hopes up" though...

Ridge placement looks improved for the northeast through the 00z ensembles and 06z GEFS. Gotta keep rooting for that low up in Canada to walk back westwards, let that high be totally unmolested! Some PWAT negative anomalies really starting to creep in towards Buffalo now as well, as that shift west moves the moisture train from the gulf farther away.

I'm thinking as the solution is zeroed in on, we'll stop seeing the widespread precipitation as the multitude of solutions that are distributed across the members (slower, four corners? slightly faster, affecting Texas? much faster, ejected to the east?) settles into just one. I'm not really concerned with ops, or ensemble precip maps so much, since they show a lot of signatures of individual members... I think looking at the 500mb, you just have to take that big ridge in the east and feel reasonably good about the chances for anyone at or east of the great lakes portion of the track.

Rochester for me!

Cautiously optimistic about WNY with the ridging starting to show up on the ensembles, getting inside 300 and got all 3 votes from EPS, GEFS and GEPS.

From NEPA: Most Emergency Relief projects and emergency repairs qualify as a categorical exclusion under 23 CFR 771.117(c)(9), which includes the repair, reconstruction, restoration, retrofitting, or replacement of eligible facilities if the work 1) occurs within the existing right-of-way; 2) conforms to the pre-existing design, function, and location as the original; and 3) is commenced within two years of the date of disaster. Basically, they can avoid a lot of environmental red tape if they largely rebuild the old design, but I think we'd all hope there's leeway to make the supports stronger and then add barriers. I don't think this exception would work if it was going to be a new type of bridge altogether.

On weather - any tips on what long range patterns to look for that might suggest cloudier/clearer (as light a suggestion as that may be at range)? If it’s going to end up cloudy, I’d like to be able to comfort myself by setting expectations early lol.

I'm gonna be a pessimist on next week (not that it's some unpopular take, but I'm generally the eternal optimist...), because these frontal things always seem to end up the same around here in recent years. Looks like rain a week out, briefly get some snow on the back end looks as it gets towards and into meso range, 24 hours out it deteriorates a bit but still holds onto 1-2 inches for west of the bay, and then you wake up to the supposed changeover line passing over you on radar but the precip just dies. 0 to trace.

I must bring the mid Atlantic curse everywhere. It’s warmer here in Iceland than Baltimore! While we were landing in a drizzle it was snowing back home…

95 from Baltimore to PA just trapped in a dry slot. Really hope the delay doesn’t steal away too much accumulation opportunity. Any second we’re not snowing is another second we’re not cooling the column as much as we could…

Had a changeover or a partial one along 95 on the way to work. Was moderate, now backed off in the dry slot. We’ll see how it goes once the precip builds back up

GEM still not a believer but continues ticks south. Non event for people not close to the MD line.

Still not on board for DC but continues to tick south.... BIG rates for further north.

GFS running! Hair south thru 6.

Still a bit of a lull affecting the Baltimore area but not a straight up dry slot. That was a juiced run compared to last couple though so maybe it'll come around. Tick south with the main snow shield as well that affects PA-NJ-NY. Hopefully we reel in a flush hit of consistent QPF to break through the surface. Difference between good and poor banding could make a big difference from place to place.

1"/hr probability at height of the storm. Commute is quite possibly nuked.

I will refrain from posting the 10:1. Concentrated weenium. You can imagine it. 95 gets slammed by some vigorous banding to help create this outcome. Edit: funny enough DC is pretty much standing pat here compared to other models. The banding just sets up further NE.