baltosquid

There's a pocket of broken looking clouds on IR moving S from northeast MD. Could be an opportunity for some.

Spotted a fissure in the clouds overhead! Just a tiny one. But baby steps!

RDPS also has much of MD clearing between 2 and 5 am.

I've never seen a storm like this, only a small show up in Iceland on a relatively quiet night, so not sure. But it can definitely be variable. Depends a lot on the CME(s) that hit us, and we can only model those with so much precision... could be more in the tank given this is a "cannibal CME" that was 3 individual CMEs getting rolled up by the fastest of the bunch into a bigger one, with even more individual ones behind it. But timing is imprecise.

It's too bad it's raining in Georgetown

My friends in Rochester just sent me some photos. It's GORGEOUS, pinks, auroral corona, just magnificent. Living up to expectations wherever it is clear it seems... hopefully the post midnight clearing happens, and even speeds up!

HRRR showing the midnight to 4am clearing as well! Edit: Actually this is 1am to 5am, but most of the clearing is underway by 4am

Nam 3km, midnight to 4am

This is basically a spaceweather weenie's dream

Low level clouds quickly dissipating outside the overcast. Definitely think it won't take much westward driving to get enough cloud breaks to see things fairly easily, if the auroras make it down here. I might consider that if I can stay within an hour's drive. But I'm still an optimist w/ regards to Baltimore. It's the opposite as the eclipse, where the clouds only had to win once to mess up viewing... with an all-night event seeming like a better and better chance, I just need to get one break...

I’m still in the “stay put” camp… even if it takes until 4am. NAM hints at thinning and maybe breaks past midnight. HRRR takes a bit longer but trended better over the day. I already traveled and caught the lights in Iceland this year, so traveling tonight won’t be as special as getting to see them in Baltimore.

CMEs starting to hit, geomagnetic storm is underway. Many more on the way. Another X class flare this morning lobbed another one, too. From spaceweather.com

Looks like low clouds primarily on the backend of the meh weather today. No middle/high. I’m hopeful over the night we’ll get some dissipation and breaks!

big CMEs on the way. Looks like we’ll have varying amounts of cloud cover this weekend, mostly lower tonight but perhaps more layered tomorrow, maybe we can catch some auroras if there are breaks. Tonight seems like the more likely time to see them (late, after midnight), but for such a strong storm and with multiple CMEs approaching in a complex manner, it could be a long run type of event.

Still can see the sun thru the clouds with the eclipse glasses in Rochester, I think pulling off a veiled but still visible totality is possible! HRRR is trending better it seems. Will probs miss out on the corona though.

King Euro, go and get your crown and make this happen… seems like the best I can realistically hope for if fully clear is off the table.

I will hear no slander against the NAM today Edit: #TeamMeso

18z ticked the middle clouds further SW, low clouds still not a factor... just super aggressive with the high clouds, despite being a bit drier at 18z. I'm fully onboard the "GFS overdoes clouds, especially thin high ones" hopium train at this point... Here's the GEFS cloud thickness, if it was just the 18z and not time lagged it would probably be a few points higher in most places. Worse for WNY but not as much as the op verbatim clouds would suggest. Hopefully that projected thinness comes through.

psst... get excited... 06z tomorrow, NAM range!

Opposite sentiment... Canadian is by far the most aggressive with the precip moving NE right now

Yeah there’s definitely some confusing differences between the NBM and tomer’s blend of clouds/shortwave depending on the model. I think NBM is just using clouds? Which could be overdone compared to shortwave. Rochester has the same but smaller conundrum, 70% favorable, 18% somewhat, 12% unfavorable but 51% cloudy on NBM. I think the trends should bring that NBM down though! Combo of faster movement through Texas and quicker dissipation as things move north east could see both ends of the eclipse path luck out.

The omega block:

06z GFS continues idea of having the low dissipate before it can traverse the lakes fully which reduces the eastern extent of the cloud cover - using the basic, overdone GFS cloud product. It seems like the bleeding may have stopped for the northeast but for my chosen WNY spot, it has still gone from looking like an 80% or more chance of getting a viewing window to closer to a coin flip. Hopefully there’s a bit of a countertrend today…

I think a positive is it got much weaker. For this run, that unfortunately does not help Ohio much. It does improve things further NE and verbatim there’s just a spike of partial high clouds over WNY and then clear rest of the way. Maybe it can trend weaker over the next couple runs and more south and the cloud/rain line can retreat from the Lake Erie/Ontario coastlines.

At this point I just hope maybe the trend to squash the whole thing latitudinally might make the clouds a north south dividing line rather than an east west one; I am at this point ready to accept (seethe at) my being screwed in the current longitudinal fiasco and hope maybe to find myself in a better spot if it becomes a latitudinal deal.