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baltosquid

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Everything posted by baltosquid

  1. baltosquid
    Next weekend definitely has some interesting features on the ensembles as well. Scandi Ridge is strong and there could be a 50/50 in play. But we get screwed by the PNA leading in to it. If that can relax a bit and we start out with colder air it could maybe happen. There's a very marginal snow signal on the 24 hour EPS snowfall charts.
  2. baltosquid
    GFS with a small event, coating to 2 inch across the region, for next Wednesday. Para does not show the same, though. Ensemble h5 look is a bit better compared to 06z.
  3. baltosquid
    (39.289920,-76.583591) The pagoda is close enough
  4. baltosquid
    As quickly as it switched back to snow, changing to sleet/rain now.
  5. baltosquid
    Snow is back and heavy at Patterson Park
  6. baltosquid
    Radar CC indicates change is coming in Baltimore. Flakes have gotten way smaller. Roads just beginning to cave around Patterson Park.
  7. baltosquid
    Coming down pretty hard at Patterson Park! Don’t have my own equipment but wunderground’s nearest station is down a degree to 32. What a pleasant morning so far.
  8. baltosquid
    So we've got the euro taking next Friday's snow south, GFS getting some snow in here before petering out, Para with dry cold, CMC with a harrowing R/S line through DC, and ICON with a flush hit. Honestly, a week out, not the worst signal for the possibility of something maybe lurking. If it survives the weekend, it'll be worth talking more in depth about. For now though it does not exist in my expectations.
  9. baltosquid
    12z RGEM still a nice event for MD sans Eastern Shore down to DC latitude, 3-6 for most. Still think it's weenie to expect this kind of storm to bring more than an inch or two if anything but it's more believable than the 6-8 inches of the 06z run.
  10. baltosquid
    That was the RGEM, had 30 plus inches for baltimore 2 or 3 runs in a row lol.
  11. baltosquid
    Flakes have shrunk a bit around Patterson Park but still coming down at a good rate. If it gets any colder or the snow gets heavier, probably back to the big flakes.
  12. baltosquid
    Medium-large flakes, moderate rates right now around Patterson Park. Been picking up pretty steadily. No wind. Just straight, slow falling flakes. Very pleasant
  13. baltosquid
    GFSv16 jackpots DC in wave 1. Thin horizontal strip of 0.5-0.6 QPF.
  14. baltosquid
    GFS is drier but nowhere near as dry as the Euro still. Wave 2 more north than other guidance.
  15. baltosquid
    Trend north on HRRR for wave 1 approach has been real this evening.
  16. baltosquid
    Doesn't have the crazy QPF that put down a wide swath of 1+ inches, but since that was almost certainly not going to happen anyway, yeah a pretty good run. 0.5-0.7 QPF for most of the subforum after the second wave.
  17. baltosquid
    Whole thing.
  18. baltosquid
    Definitely sticking to its 18z guns. Surprised the NAM went its way and not the other way around for these 00z runs.
  19. baltosquid
    One thing is for sure, the euro did not pick up an ally in the NAM. Also, on 3km, 2nd wave through 48 isn't as expansive with precip even if the low is a bit north.
  20. baltosquid
    2nd wave didn't quite touch Baltimore with precip at 18z, doing so this run. But the bigger change by far this run was wave 1; wave 2 looks like it will be very similar, only a little bit north.
  21. baltosquid
    3km probably isn't gonna be as crazy as the 12km but still a marked improvement.
  22. baltosquid
    Yeah important to remember that the NAM was holding on to a better storm for us just this past weekend for longer than other models.
  23. baltosquid
    Huge bump in QPF for the first wave so far, but also lots of mixing/sleet at DC latitudes and rain further south.
  24. baltosquid
    Yes, just saying if it ends up right, I would give it the win since it was consistently trending the right way all the way through at a much greater pace than the rest of the models. Fingers crossed it loses. I want to crown the UKMET! God Save the Queen!
  25. baltosquid
    Was thinking about this earlier. How often is it that a weak wave gets pressed so intensely and manages to produce? Models for a while wanted to say you could just move the whole event south no biggie, just changes who jackpots. But in reality a weak wave getting this rough treatment from the north isn't going to just move south. It's going to die.
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