baltosquid

Love how it loads up a second storm 2 days later, which also misses for the most part lol.

I'll say it so no one else has to: "With a path like that, the trend will be in our favor" You can update your bingo cards!

Only dropping it in for the fun of it! The mean is of course what we should be looking at. Though some features are maybe easier to see in something like the max, like the frederick jackpot. There's already some better snowfall there in the mean to hint at better rates there but the max really highlights that at least one of the models in the blend likes that area. For what it's worth, the 00z run ALSO pegged northern Frederick for good totals through 00z Thursday, which is why I'm keen to see how that verifies. It's visible on both the mean and max.

And the weenie version of the same map... I'm gonna pay attention to Frederick's totals to see if the HREF is picking up on the jackpot. No grades will be given but it will be fun to check.

Here's what the HREF ensemble spits out through 12z Thursday.

HRRR, HRRR 6h, HRW ARW, HRW ARW 12h, HRW NMMB, HRW NMMB 12h, HRW NSSL, HRW NSSL 12h, NAM CONUS Nest, NAM CONUS Nest 12h SPC HREF Ensemble Viewer - 500 mb wind/height, ens mean (noaa.gov) They've got a surprisingly good interface imo. At least compared to some other .gov sites lol.

HREF ensemble shows Snow-Mix-Snow for Baltimore, Snow-Mix-Rain-Snow for DC. 2-4 inches for the former and maybe an inch for the latter through 00z Thursday. No back end snow totals shown yet but it looks like there will be a couple hours of it for Baltimore and not much for DC.

06z GFS there’s a low flirting with the 50/50 spot (been bouncing around for a few runs) and plenty of cold to go around on Christmas Eve, just can’t get anything to make use of it. I know the pattern looks better after Christmas, but I can dream.

Totals actually are worse on the 00z Canadian despite what's going on with the surface temps. Low gets into the Chesapeake and 850's get too warm Wednesday evening, heaviest snow is lost for I95.

So close on those 850's. Just a small tick or so, but the models aren't budging.

Would be better if not for some stubborn warmth at the 850 level that pauses snowfall in most of central MD (particularly around I95) that brings down the totals quite a bit there. Hopefully, a pocket like that is something that can change. Though the Nam kinda had a similar pocket too. Though it is a meso at long range, so we'll see.

Anyway, about new data, ICON took a jump East and is now putting the low out of the bay. A bit better but still some heavy rain after the initial snow so far. No backend frames yet. Not significant temperature change at the surface from what I can see, maybe a slight tick warmer. Don't have higher level stuff on TT. Edit: Nothing on the backend for anyone. Anomalously poor showing for snow in the NW compared to other models today.

Oh I don't think you actually said anything to really gripe about but I do think overall there's a lot of grumbling from many after last winter's disaster; more what I'm getting at.

That's what happens when you put weenies through a winter like last year's... very hard for some to stay disciplined and accept expert analysis.

If only it were a bit colder.

HRRR with its first digital snow for Baltimore for this one. Looks very cold overall. But it's also at 48 hours so... just fun for now.

Setting expectations for 4, hoping the storm scoots along with a minimal tuck and some colder air to get me to that yellow on the NWS maps and 8 inches. Would love to eek out a better result than March 2018 if possible. Fingers crossed. Let's see what 18z has to offer in a few hours! As always, big thanks to all the more knowledgeable posters helping us weenies along.

Temps definitely more favorable in Baltimore. Just shift the storm a dozen miles SE, and/or have a similar temperature improvement in the next update, please. Won't take much to make me feel a lot more confident in at least getting the grass covered. Wonder what the EPS will do in terms of clustering the lows on the members for 12z. Either way, let's see if 18z and 00z will help us out and then dive into meso mode.

UKMET snowfall map is not encouraging. Maybe 1-3 inches for I95, but of course lots of that would be washed away in the rain.

If this ends up continuing trending poorly, I'd have to hand it to the GFS-Para (GFSv16), it's been saying rain/sleet for I95 for days. Edit: Should mention that it handled things quite poorly in other ways

Interestingly, the 06z EPS seems to be a bit more uncertain than the 00z. Bit more strung out in terms of member lows from NW to SE at hour 72. Only potential positive I can see to hang onto. May still have time and "room" amongst that uncertainty in the ensemble for a slight shift in that rain/snow line, but the densest clusters and continuing trend are disappointing.

12km, so not as useful as the incoming 3km, but the run was better. Low is still too far NW but not running up the bay like in 06z. Snow totals still bad. Looks like mostly sleet in the totals on tropical tidbits. But a tick in the right direction, even for a less useful model is nice.

Yeah also looks maybe a bit cooler at 850 but a tad warmer at the surface. If it makes any noticeable SE tick I'll be feeling much better though, really just want to see the path. Anything to suggest the Euro and CMC will cave to the GFS...

00z hugs Delmarva far tighter than 18z. Ensembles maybe hinted at his before with a lot of members clustered around there while the operational took a straighter path. I'm kind of concerned that the euro ensembles generally have the tightest cluster around that tucking path while the out-to-sea members are more scattered, even if there are more of those ones overall. But even with this run, I get 6 to 8 or so inches on the snow depth map which is probably the most since March 2018 for me. Anyone more knowledgeable got an explanation of the tucking behavior and what would stop it? Silver linings?

CMC is strange, very strong but one of the most pronounced snow-rain cutoffs yet. It really wants to tuck the storm into Ocean City/Delaware. I'm skeptical of that. Very different track to the GFS. Give me the GFS track and CMC rates, please!