baltosquid
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Everything posted by baltosquid
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That lakes energy around the 20/21 seems like it could be the key to a quick little thump in the ensuing days. Wanna see that move souther/stronger and keep us colder. Then just make the 06z GFS progression a bit better and we can get a thump…
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So much graupel. Was very surprised by it. To be honest this is just a repeat of the last storm, with a few tenths more accumulation. That also had lots of graupel mixed in here and struggled to get rates going.
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I just measured on the deck railing. I had about 0.9 inches, probably someone in Canton could measure an inch if they found a better surface. Lots of graupel it seems.
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Another band goes green to yellow… literally just to the south of me. There’s only one band left before the back end, idk if we reach an inch here.
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There’s not even an inch on my deck as I wake up. Just a coating. We got screwed between bands. I had that feeling we’d end up in a bad spot and of course, it found a way for Baltimore, as always.
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Still raining in Baltimore. Hope it changes soon. Going to bed and crossing my fingers for a nice surprise in the morning.
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Radar activity picking up around the city, probably will drizzle at first. Hoping to see flakes soon though
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It seems like a big difference maker for 95 yet to be resolved is gonna be how early it can get snowing in earnest - heaviest band seems confidently placed a bit to the NW of 95 but whether that is a 2 or more inch drop off or just half-to inch drop comes down to whether we get a good start in the early hours or if that is a loss. Hoping the met talk in here about shallow warmth pans out and it does indeed get going quickly!
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Idk, I’m starting to feel a Baltimore screw job in my bones. Ratios are gonna be worse than 10:1 I feel. I just struggle to believe the GFS or Canadian/RDPS when so many mesos want to favor north. And now tick north/drier on the euro.
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12z CMC is largely unchanged
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RAP 15z is a bit north
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I'm a little worried about some models running on the north end of the envelope we've seen, I think at this point the fail case for 95 is temps come in a tad high and a slightly overamped storm screws us with too much rain in the early morning to get much. Fingers crossed we see the GFS or something like it pan out...
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Thickness lines descending to our west and rising to the east run to run, nice. Hopefully we are close enough that doesn't become a bad thing where temps become more of an issue (but you'd have more insurance than us down here).
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Yeah definite improvement from GFS, bigger shield, more precip to the border, better jack for 95 from Baltimore to NE. Slightly better for DC
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GFS looks very similar to 18z through 27. Looks like a slightly more organized interaction with the TPV, maybe that juices it slightly, more coastal-y?
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Getting woken up to puking snow by lightning and thunder would be sick
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Icon got better as well!
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Difficult work at 10pm while buzzed but it had to be done I think I like "roofus" to go along with the GFS "goofus"
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It may not be a christmas miracle, or even a christmas eve miracle, but man would it be nice to reel in a christmas eve eve eve eve eve eve eve eve eve eve eve miracle!
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“Getting RRFS’d” doesn’t have the same ring to it though…
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3k NAM is rougher with the rain-snow changeover and just takes longer to get going, especially for SW.
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was gonna say... this has been a great set of runs with the GFS finally budging a bit, but that just means we could be set up for a vintage Dr. No moment
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Really looked like it might come north a touch even if still narrow but the GFS is dead set on a bay jackpot
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It will end up falling on 1 lane of 95 from DC to NY
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Looks very similar to 12z through 51, just everything is a touch north. Seems like it will amp a bit more too. Just gotta hope it isn’t too much; could be good if the lid stays on
