baltosquid

Someone with actual weather expertise can probably explain this better than I can, but I believe this giant 500mb feature is the culprit. Our storm rounds that through the Great Lakes, while in the previous run, it was positioned a bit further south and east, so when the storm came round, it was in a better spot for us (still was only an ice storm though).

Seems like a good forecast based on climo for something like this, even if there is some potential for better totals for DC and south.

That's another trend south with the fringe for the GFS, so while it may not be a good run for those SE of I95, maybe the next one will be? Edit: Was mistaken, thinking about the 06z.

GFS coming in drier, a tad south perhaps.

Jackpot of 10 seems pretty reasonable if you get something like the euro. Gut says somewhere in the latitudes between DC and Baltimore gets it.

ICON really loses a lot of the precip from the previous run. Once you get north of DC, you go from 0.5, to 0.4, to 0.3 in Baltimore, and less and less as you keep going. Still a good run to have at this stage if you expect a north shift and aren't looking too deeply at rates quite yet. But dryness is still my biggest worry.

Euro has us in the game for weekend tracking. Ice storm right now though.

What would it take to get that precip shield to expand/strengthen? That seems to be what's keeping this from being great everywhere per the Euro - not that it isn't good already. Edit: was looking at 10:1, kuchera looks much better, disregard!

Euro looks like it wants to merge the events into one marathon.

Don't forget the CMC is coming in now too. Surface looks warmer leading in to Thursday so far. More of a SE ridge.

1049 High on the plains as the ice storm rolls through.

Ice storm... but we're getting there. Give it a few more runs and let's see where it goes. Thursday started as an ice event and it's a lot better now.

Cold air, meet gulf moisture.

Doesn't quite capture every last little bit of snow in the eastern part of the forum, but the GFS thru Thursday looks like a good tick in our favor. Give us one or two similar ticks and most of us should be in a good spot, but it's gonna be a nail biter somewhere regardless. Edit: a few more inches to come on Friday.

SW winds at 850 look weaker on the GFS at hour 60 so that's better, and temps look better at that layer. Precip is further south. Could be a good adjustment.

My biggest worry at the moment isn't south/north but rather lackluster rates and dry slotting like we saw in the thump two weeks ago. If that happens, then we need to hope the Friday shot some of the models like works out, and we've seemed to do poorly in the back half of our storms lately. Would much rather just have a stronger thump than rely on a departing hit. But we're well out of the range where we'll be able to pick out specific regions of lackluster precip so while it's my biggest worry, it's still a small worry. Only really based on how prior storms have gone this winter.

Bet the national blend of models looks pretty, pretty good right now for central MD. Pretty much right in the middle of all the big models.

Yeah the models have been flirting with some big moisture coming up from the gulf for a bit and it has piqued my interest for sure over the past couple days paired with the cold coming. Classic case of give me the ingredients and let the details work themselves out.

UKMET onboard for some thump on Thursday. Big euro run coming up, would be a pretty strong group of models onboard if it joins in.

Changeover complete at Patterson park, all snow right now, but flakes could maybe get better as things go on. No accumulation so far.

I'm very intrigued by next weekend. A ton of cold on the GFS in particular and something maybe coming up out of the Gulf after the midweek event. Canadian and Euro ops aren't as on board with the cold and keep it out west, especially the Canadian, but their ensembles are much more favorable to it. H5 look needs a lot of work, but maybe there's time.

Euro is a decent thump of 2-4 inches 10:1 then ice, then dry slot. Maybe if it's as cold as advertised for that thump, ratios could improve.

CMC was a tick NW but pretty much the same. Also drier; gotta be in the heavy bands to get much.

So we're riding the NAM and Euro it seems. And the HRDPS I suppose. Really need the euro at 12z to hold firm with its call; more ticks lower on QPF would have us knocking on slush territory. I forget who said it, but one of the mets mentioned the 12k NAM and 3k NAM difference a day or so ago was worth paying attention to, as the 12k was much less amped and could signify something to watch since the 3k likes to overamp. Looking like a great call.

So this is late, but seeing as the 12z should start rolling in soon, here's the 00z href snowfall mean and max to compare. I only link the max to demonstrate the dueling ideas of where the heaviest snow falls; do not think you're going to get those totals. You've got one camp rushing through Eastern Shore/DE and another going right along I-95. It'll be interesting to see how that pair of strips evolves in the 12z run. I'm also not sure what ratio this uses, but probably just 10:1, so adjust down mentally as needed.