baltosquid

HREF ensemble shows Snow-Mix-Snow for Baltimore, Snow-Mix-Rain-Snow for DC. 2-4 inches for the former and maybe an inch for the latter through 00z Thursday. No back end snow totals shown yet but it looks like there will be a couple hours of it for Baltimore and not much for DC.

06z GFS there’s a low flirting with the 50/50 spot (been bouncing around for a few runs) and plenty of cold to go around on Christmas Eve, just can’t get anything to make use of it. I know the pattern looks better after Christmas, but I can dream.

Totals actually are worse on the 00z Canadian despite what's going on with the surface temps. Low gets into the Chesapeake and 850's get too warm Wednesday evening, heaviest snow is lost for I95.

So close on those 850's. Just a small tick or so, but the models aren't budging.

Would be better if not for some stubborn warmth at the 850 level that pauses snowfall in most of central MD (particularly around I95) that brings down the totals quite a bit there. Hopefully, a pocket like that is something that can change. Though the Nam kinda had a similar pocket too. Though it is a meso at long range, so we'll see.

Anyway, about new data, ICON took a jump East and is now putting the low out of the bay. A bit better but still some heavy rain after the initial snow so far. No backend frames yet. Not significant temperature change at the surface from what I can see, maybe a slight tick warmer. Don't have higher level stuff on TT. Edit: Nothing on the backend for anyone. Anomalously poor showing for snow in the NW compared to other models today.

Oh I don't think you actually said anything to really gripe about but I do think overall there's a lot of grumbling from many after last winter's disaster; more what I'm getting at.

That's what happens when you put weenies through a winter like last year's... very hard for some to stay disciplined and accept expert analysis.

If only it were a bit colder.

HRRR with its first digital snow for Baltimore for this one. Looks very cold overall. But it's also at 48 hours so... just fun for now.

Setting expectations for 4, hoping the storm scoots along with a minimal tuck and some colder air to get me to that yellow on the NWS maps and 8 inches. Would love to eek out a better result than March 2018 if possible. Fingers crossed. Let's see what 18z has to offer in a few hours! As always, big thanks to all the more knowledgeable posters helping us weenies along.

Temps definitely more favorable in Baltimore. Just shift the storm a dozen miles SE, and/or have a similar temperature improvement in the next update, please. Won't take much to make me feel a lot more confident in at least getting the grass covered. Wonder what the EPS will do in terms of clustering the lows on the members for 12z. Either way, let's see if 18z and 00z will help us out and then dive into meso mode.

UKMET snowfall map is not encouraging. Maybe 1-3 inches for I95, but of course lots of that would be washed away in the rain.

If this ends up continuing trending poorly, I'd have to hand it to the GFS-Para (GFSv16), it's been saying rain/sleet for I95 for days. Edit: Should mention that it handled things quite poorly in other ways

Interestingly, the 06z EPS seems to be a bit more uncertain than the 00z. Bit more strung out in terms of member lows from NW to SE at hour 72. Only potential positive I can see to hang onto. May still have time and "room" amongst that uncertainty in the ensemble for a slight shift in that rain/snow line, but the densest clusters and continuing trend are disappointing.

12km, so not as useful as the incoming 3km, but the run was better. Low is still too far NW but not running up the bay like in 06z. Snow totals still bad. Looks like mostly sleet in the totals on tropical tidbits. But a tick in the right direction, even for a less useful model is nice.

Yeah also looks maybe a bit cooler at 850 but a tad warmer at the surface. If it makes any noticeable SE tick I'll be feeling much better though, really just want to see the path. Anything to suggest the Euro and CMC will cave to the GFS...

00z hugs Delmarva far tighter than 18z. Ensembles maybe hinted at his before with a lot of members clustered around there while the operational took a straighter path. I'm kind of concerned that the euro ensembles generally have the tightest cluster around that tucking path while the out-to-sea members are more scattered, even if there are more of those ones overall. But even with this run, I get 6 to 8 or so inches on the snow depth map which is probably the most since March 2018 for me. Anyone more knowledgeable got an explanation of the tucking behavior and what would stop it? Silver linings?

CMC is strange, very strong but one of the most pronounced snow-rain cutoffs yet. It really wants to tuck the storm into Ocean City/Delaware. I'm skeptical of that. Very different track to the GFS. Give me the GFS track and CMC rates, please!

Track is better but the precipitation rates aren't there this time. Not too worried about that run. Track worried me more earlier personally, no deterioration on that for 00z, perhaps improvements. Hopefully we can get the rates back.

EPS mean seems a bit of a weaker storm and a tick south, stronger 50/50 and slightly stronger high pressure behind it. Probably good I think.

Seems like the Euro ensembles look a bit warmer at 850 than the operational, and the inverse is true for the GFS. Which means I'll still be hanging on each and every run throughout the day. Just gotta hope the ticks are in the right direction.

EPS a bit worse but it’s also easy to see how battered we’ve been for a while now We’ve got the CMC, GFS and Euro Ops with some pretty great results for the usual suspects and the I95 corridor; the UKMET is less bullish but still a good result for a lot of us in Dec. Yet you’d think from the discussion on the EPS we’re set up for a soul crushing bust even though it still gives some of us more snow than all last year lol. One run at a time, best models for us in a long long time!

Depressing that the only "saving grace" at this point is the CFS, and that's not until March so... ouch.

It's hard to be excited about the GFS being close (but further than it was at 06z) while the ECMWF is 300 miles too far north. Still 5+ days out but with precious little ensemble support, oof.