baltosquid

I feel like it’s too late to get the really heavy stuff our way barring a major late adjustment WNW, but I doubt it’s too late to get in on more light-moderate powder from the coastal to get a few more inches before it scoots away.

I can't in good conscience push the needle into the jaws proper until we get the full event in range and some varsity model support, but that was a damn good run.

36/84 on tropical tidbits. Those numbers on the right are a score, aren't they?

There's your jaws meter, we can use it to grade the incoming NAM run. Meter and needle supplied separately below, don't run with the needle though. It's sharp.

Give me a minute, I've got the design in mind.

Looking at how the tail has trended across different models, it's interesting how the euro has ended up being the one most bullish about snow given how ruinous the tail seemed to be a couple days ago - the last few runs on it have actually been trending to a longer tail, but it's so aggressive with that northern piece towards the end that it ends up still being a better result for us. The GFS meanwhile has been shortening that tail for a few runs now but has not become nearly as enthusiastic about phasing as the euro. CMC also trended to a shorter tail from 00z to 12z and was once again not as big of an improvement as the euro today. As for the mesos, the NAM has been shrinking it quite aggressively and the RGEM has been less committal, jumping back and forth between short and long. If we can blend some of the north american global and meso tail handling with the euro's NS progression, I'd imagine that would be quite good. On the other hand, if the euro is right about the tail but the rest are right about the NS, then we're not gonna be hearing jaws anytime soon.

It actually makes up a nice chunk of ground on the h5 development compared to 12z by 84. Definitely a touch worse but that energy coming diving behind is doing some serious work keeping things decent.

Noticeably more positive at 72. But that northern piece is coming down now, so let's see what it can do.

Are you referring to that energy rushing down the back of the trough from Canada before/as it gets to the Mississippi? I want to learn what I’m looking at

Nice to see the jackpot move to MD at least! 12z has me in through at least happy hour, then. edit: wow, snow maps look even better than I expected. King euro, please take the crown back!

Yeah it seems like we can only get this to go so far west…. Assuming the models are doing a decent job for the moment, unless there’s a legendary tuck to get it closer to the coast briefly for a taste of the good stuff, we’re just going to have to rely on a solid prelude.

Shhhhhhhh!

Yeah if we can coalesce around a euro solution today and tomorrow that puts us in a great spot if the lack of blocking helps us get a west trend in the home stretch. Not gonna get the eye popping stuff I would think but there’s room to improve if we don’t lose ground today.

Yeah the vort map looked a smidge better at 84 but after that it pretty much ended up at the same location, just a bit deeper and I guess the surface just ended up getting underway too too far east.

Not gonna stay awake long enough to see how it ends up but the GEFS seems to be slightly improved through 84. Probably doesn't make up all the ground it lost, though.

I hope so. I wonder what the conditions were that led to the change in track. I mean, first order analysis one would think a storm like we're tracking in an environment without blocking would have plenty of room to shift west but so much of the track is based on some crazy interactions happening way out west that we could just as likely jump further east if that mess doesn't break our way. Fingers crossed we can make another gif like that one for this weekend should it come to pass.

The trailing vort placement is better but it still seems like a lot less interaction with the northern energy than we had at 12z. Question: That strong vortex up by the Hudson Bay in the 60-70 hour range keeps taking longer and longer to move out over the last handful of runs on the GFS. Is that vortex being too close by making it harder for the northern piece to come down far enough to interact with the vort in the four corners?

We need some ops showing fish storms at this stage, if they all saw snow for us 4-5 days out they’d surely be too early to all get it right!

Looking at individual members, way more that appear to be down with the tuck on GEFS than at 6z. Only have TT right now though, a different plot would be nice to really tell.

Average low position at 114 on GEFS is a bit closer to OBX. Most seem to be running on the inside of that but not too big of a majority. Still a good chunk well out to sea.

Think GEFS looks better than the GFS on h5 through 96. Less elongated, more NE than ENE flow in front, better tilt. But as has been mentioned many times, different, older physics at play.

Just observing! Got a friend up there who loves a good snow day so I’d like to be able to give him good news if it stays that way. And I’m hoping that jackpot keeps trending to us. Though verbatim I ride near the mix line so I’m quite happy with that implication…

Wow, looks great for us but NYC gets buried.

GEFS continuing some earlier trends so far. Trough axis continues to get steeper over the four corners.

Yeah the NAM at 84 is quite encouraging. Nice decrease in elongation, looks like better cold leading in too. But still the NAM at 84.